*** College Basketball Preview - Big South Conference ***
The My Sportsbook
By Gregg Xenakes, College Basketball Staff Writer
OUTLOOK: To expect there to be a huge change this year in the Big South Conference from last year would be asking a lot. The top teams are still going to be jockeying for position for the league tournament at the end of the campaign, while the squads on the lower tier of the nine-team collection will be merely speed bumps for the rest of the elite to cruise over. Last season Birmingham-Southern and Liberty tied for the league lead with records of 12-4, the Panthers being the only team in the league without double-digit losses with a mark of 20-7. While that is an impressive enough record to get any team in college basketball to take a second look at you, the fact that Birmingham- Southern was not allowed to participate in the conference tournament took something away from that accomplishment. This year there are no such limitations on the Panthers, while High Point, Liberty and Winthrop will also vie for the top spot. The Buccaneers of Charleston Southern will need a lot of help just to be competitive. Virginia Military Institute might not be in the same boat as the Bucs, but the Keydets sure are riding a similar wave, right to the bottom of the standings. In between, schools like Coastal Carolina, Radford, and UNC-Asheville could jump up and steal a game here or there that might be beyond them, but for the most part those squads will also be standing and watching as Birmingham-Southern , High Point, Liberty and Winthrop battle for conference supremacy.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Birmingham-Southern
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Birmingham-Southern; 2. High Point; 3. Liberty; 4. Winthrop; 5. VMI; 6. UNC-Asheville; 7. Radford; 8. Coastal Carolina; 9 Charleston Southern.
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
BIRMINGHAM-SOUTHERN: The chains are now off the Panthers, finally able to participate in the Big South Conference Tournament, which means the rest of the league better watch out. Birmingham-Southern spent its first year as an official member of NCAA Division I and the Big South Conference, following a two-year probation period a year ago and gave the league members a taste of what is to come. The Panthers up a record of 20-7 and tied Liberty for the regular season title with a mark of 12-4. This season the team has three returning starters, two of those being seniors. Guard Jakob Sigurdarson, selected as a preseason first-team member, is perhaps the unit's top threat from the perimeter and, when he chooses to bring the ball inside and make contact, opponents have to deal with the fact that he is almost 87 percent accurate at the free-throw line. Fellow senior Augustinas Vitas may be a 6-11 product, but he'll need to do a lot of work to make up for the loss of Grant Davis who takes his eight and a half rebounds with him. Junior guard James Collins may be nine inches shorter than Vitas, but last year he actually had better rebounding numbers. Perhaps the biggest key to the success of this program is the growth and development of senior center Shema Mbyirukira after he tallied 11 points and 5.7 rebounds per game last year. He must put more muscle on his 6-11, 250-pound frame if he is going to be a dominant player in the league. Head coach Duane Reboul, now entering his 16th season with the group, has been such a mainstay at the school that he deserves the spoils that are going to come to him this March.
HIGH POINT: Some publications have High Point sitting at the high point of the standings once the season is done, and for good reason. These Panthers, after finishing 2003-4 with a record of 19-11, 10-6 in conference, bring back five of their top six scorers from a year ago, which is why they should be in contention for the conference crown. Being invited to play at the Great Alaska Shootout against the likes of Oklahoma, Utah and Washington should be enough proof that High Point is finally earning some well-deserved respect from the rest of the college basketball world. Senior forward Danny Gathings brings a laundry list of awards to the floor for the Panthers, not the least of which was the 2004 Big South Player of the Year and a 2004 AP All-America honorable- mention. The 6-6 slasher is well aware that he is being looked upon to guide the Panthers to success, which is why his 15.8 points and eight rebounds per game should increase this year. Before he gets too overwhelmed he has to remember that senior guard Zione White (13.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.9 spg) is there to rely on as well. Add senior Jerry Echenique (11.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg) to the mix and High Point has a deadly starting group. The Panthers were tied for third in Division I for the biggest turnaround last year, adding 12 wins to their previous season's total and while there's no chance of that happening again, there is still room for improvement from head coach Bart Lundy as he enters his seventh season in North Carolina.
LIBERTY: For most teams losing five of your top eight scorers might be reason to panic, but the Flames insist that they will continue to burn brightly despite the handicap. After winning the conference tournament with an 89-44 blowout of High Point last season, and advancing to the NCAA Tournament, Liberty saw first hand what hard work and perseverance can do for a program. Now a sophomore Larry Blair, who became the first player in school history to be named the Big South Rookie of the Year, was selected to the preseason All- Conference team by the coaches. Blair averaged 13.2 ppg last season, scoring a freshman record 437 points, and also showed that he has the touch from the perimeter as he knocked down seven three-pointers in the conference tourney, for which he was named to the all-tournament team. Also a scoring option for the Flames will be David Dees who accounted for 10.5 ppg last season and has the potential for lifting that number even higher this season. One knock on the team might be its three-point shooting, as the squad converted just 30.8 percent overall last season. However, Dees demonstrated in conference play in 2003-04 that he has the ability to carry the Panthers by converting a stunning 47 percent of his three-pointers.
WINTHROP: For four straight seasons the Eagles were the talk of the Big South, winning the league title between 1999-2002, but the last two years have come up a little short by their standards. Last season the team finished in a tie for third in the conference standings at 10-6. Head coach Greg Marshall, now entering his seventh year with the program, has just one senior left on his squad, while his top two scorers from a year ago have departed. Although just a sophomore, forward/center Craig Bradshaw was given a boost this past year when he was selected to play for the New Zealand Olympic Team. He played just 12 minutes a game for Winthrop in 2003-04 and averaged barely two points per outing, but being given an opportunity to play against and study alongside the top players from his country can only be looked on as a positive. With Bradshaw possibly eating up room in the middle, the rest of the front line should fall into place rather nicely, with a pair of 6-8 bangers like Phillip Williams and Billy Houston clearing space in the lane for backcourt mates Brandon Key and Torrell Martin to create and score.
VMI: A couple of years ago Jason Conley led the nation in scoring as a freshman with the Keydets, but then bolted from the VMI program and is now at Missouri. Last year the team hung its hopes on Radee Skipworth who led the group in scoring and was named to the All-Big South Conference Second-Team as a senior. This year, who knows what the team plans on doing for guidance on the floor. One thing is for sure though, head coach Bart Bellairs is going to do all he can to get this unit back to the NCAA Tournament, where it hasn't been since the 1977 campaign. Bellairs, now in his 11th season in Lexington, has just two seniors on the roster (Tim Allmond and Sam Mielnik), but neither is the type of player who can single-handedly turn a 6-22 team around without significant help from the rest of the lineup. Therein lies the problem because, without a player that is more than 6-9 in height, the Keydets are desperate for leadership in the post, on the wing and at the top of the key for that matter. Last year the team averaged just 57.4 ppg and allowed 69.4 ppg, a disparity that could grow even larger in 2004-05.
UNC-ASHEVILLE: The good news is the Bulldogs return all five of their starters from a year ago and have 10 lettermen to pick and choose from when assembling a lineup. After reaching the NCAA Tournament a year earlier, falling to Texas in the first round, UNC-Asheville never fully reached its potential in 2003-04 because of one injury after another. Forward Bryan McCullough led the Bulldogs in scoring last season with 10.0 ppg and should compete for all-conference honors this time around, while forward Billy Allen played in just 16 games last year but still averaged 6.6 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. At the center spot a healthy 6-9 Joseph Barber should give the group some much needed inside punch and presence. Three juniors will reprise their starting roles for UNCA as 6-6 forward Oliver Holmes (8.9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game), Chad Mohn (8.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Omar Collington (7.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg) get more chances to show their worth against the rest of the Big South Conference. Perhaps the most intriguing player on the roster for the Bulldogs is sophomore guard K.J. Garland who, after being placed on the league's All-Rookie Team, took a spot on the all-tournament squad and is now considered a contender for the Player of the Year Award in the Big South. Garland (9.9 ppg) is certainly at the center of a group that can improve upon its situation this year.
RADFORD: The most recognizable name on the Radford roster is again Whit Holcomb-Faye, while the rest of the Highlanders hide in anonymity. Holcomb- Faye was responsible for 17.5 ppg last year, which is why he is once again considered one of the top players in the Big South. The junior has a lot of work ahead of him though if he and head coach Byron Samuels hope to push Radford in the right direction after finishing 2003-4 with a record of 12-16, just 7-9 in conference. Instead of getting a chance to work on his offensive moves without the ball, Holcomb-Faye is now going to be the point guard for the program, which means the success of players like Olumuyiwa Popoola and Chris Oliver will be under his control. Unfortunately, the Highlanders will have to play without the services of junior guard/forward Chris Goodin who was suspended in mid July for failing to meet team academic policies. Goodin, who led the team with 60 three-pointers last year and averaged 10.3 ppg as a worthy second option on offense, could be reinstated once he takes care of his academic obligations, but Samuels is not holding his breath, and neither should the rest of the team which might be better off without the distraction. In an effort to divert the team's attention in that matter, Samuels went out and signed transfer Ivan Wilson from Southwest Mississippi Community College in late September after the junior 6-10 center averaged 8.3 points and 6.5 rebounds last year.
COASTAL CAROLINA: Putting up a record of 8-8 last season in league play, 14-15 overall, was not exactly what head coach Pete Strickland was expecting from five senior starters. Unfortunately for him and the Chanticleer faithful, the outlook isn't even that bright this season, with four of the top five scorers from a year ago having departed. The top returning scorer for the program is senior guard Alvin Green, having produced 7.1 points and 3.2 rebounds per game, despite being just 5-9 and 160 pounds. Green also handed out 101 assists in 27 games, so he knows how to get his teammates involved. Senior center Matthijs Reinders (1.7 ppg, 1.2 rpg) must be more physical on the inside, while sophomore forward Moses Sonko (6.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg) also does some pushing and shoving in the paint or else the Big South could lose sight of Coastal Carolina rather quickly. Appearing in all 29 games for the team last year was starter Clint Nagel, but he came off the bench more than any other player who was penciled in as being in the starting rotation, which means he still has some developing ahead of him. With more rebounds (4.3) than points (3.6) per game, the senior has shown that he is willing to do some of the dirty work without the glory, but the Chanticleers now need a lot of both, especially if they insist on going with a thin rotation.
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN: What can you say about a team that won just six games last season, dropping 19 of its last 23 games in 2003-04? Only once during that stretch did a player have a double-digit rebounding effort for Charleston-Southern, and that player happened to be top scorer Kurtis Rice. The 6-5 senior forward carried the team on his back a season ago and the burden was simply too much for just one person. Unfortunately, head coach Jim Platt is expecting Rice to carry even more of the load this time around, somehow exceeding his 13.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Senior forward Trent Drafts appeared in all but one game for the squad last season and averaged 8.7 ppg so at the very least there is one more person to focus on at the offensive end of the floor. Center Nathan Ball came up strong against conference opponents, posting 8.8 points and 4.7 rebounds in 2003-04, but playing the middle at 6-9 puts him at a disadvantage against many other players at his position in the league. One area in which the entire team can improve on is at the free-throw line, where the Buccaneers converted only 62.6 percent versus Big South members.
