*** College Basketball Preview - Atlantic Coast Conference ***

The My Sportsbook

By Scott Haynes, College Basketball Senior Editor

OUTLOOK: Regarded for some time now as the toughest conference in college basketball, little will change for the ACC this season. The conference is top- heavy with as many as five teams in the top 10 to 15 programs in the nation to start the year. The strength of the conference will once again revolve around Tobacco Road, where North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest all have legitimate shots at not only the conference crown, but a national title as well. Skip Prosser has the best backcourt in the nation in Winston-Salem, Roy Williams will put out the nation's best starting five in Chapel Hill and Mike Krzyzewski always has a plethora of talent in Durham. Paul Hewitt continues to build a winning program at Georgia Tech and coming off a Final-Four and national-title game appearance last year certainly has the Yellow Jacket faithful ready to see what is next. Gary Williams has another outstanding group in College Park and the Terrapins are only a couple of years removed from a national title. North Carolina State doesn't have the depth that the previous five teams have, but what Herb Sendek does have is perhaps the nation's best player in Julius Hodge. Leonard Hamilton is in year three of the reclamation process in Tallahassee and the Seminoles could really be a surprise in the conference this season. Virginia and Clemson are once again relegated to the lower half of the conference, but will have company in 2004-05, as new members Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida will be longing for the days of the Big East, as the ACC slate will prove to be even deadlier for the Hokies and Hurricanes this season.

CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Wake Forest

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Wake Forest, 2. North Carolina, 3. Georgia Tech, 4. Duke, 5. Maryland, 6. NC State, 7. Florida State, 8. Virginia, 9. Virginia Tech, 10. Clemson, 11. Miami-Florida

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

WAKE FOREST - The Demon Deacons were a very young team a year ago, but that didn't prevent the squad from going 21-10 on the year. What it did prevent however, was an ACC title, as Wake finished tied for third place with a mark of 9-7. This year, the sky is the limit, as all the pieces are in place to make a Final Four appearance. It all starts with the nation's best backcourt, comprised of sophomore sensation Chris Paul and junior scoring machine Justin Gray. This will be Paul's team to run and there are few players in the country that will do it better. Paul was named the ACC Freshman of the Year last season after averaging almost 15 points (14.9), while doling out nearly six assists (5.8) per outing. Gray (16.8 ppg last season) is a perfect complement, with his ability to take over a game offensively. The frontcourt is no slouch either, with sophomore center Eric Williams (12.2 ppg) and senior forwards Jamaal Levy (10.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Vytas Danelius. If Danelius remains healthy in 2004-05, this is a trio that could rival any in the conference. Further depth up front and in the backcourt is found in veterans Trent Strickland and Taron Downey, respectively.

NORTH CAROLINA - Last season, the Tar Heels made a huge leap in terms of growth, despite a new coach in Roy Williams. The team finished the year 19-11, but a disappointing 8-8 in conference play (fifth). Roy Williams inherited a ton of talent in Chapel Hill and this is the year that that talent will finally blossom. The Tar Heels boast the nation's best starting five, led by the superior post play of center Sean May. At 6-9, 260 pounds, May is better suited to play power forward, but he will once again man the middle for UNC. That is a good thing however, as May is the best pivot in the country, with the ability to both score at will (15.2 ppg) and throw his body around on the boards (9.8 rpg). Junior Rashad McCants and senior Jawad Williams complete the starting frontcourt. McCants, who led the ACC in scoring last season (20.0 ppg) is a scoring machine that can break down most defenders and get his shot off whenever he wants to. Williams (12.6 ppg) adds another athletic scorer off the wing. The entire UNC offense funnels through the capable hands of junior Raymond Felton (11.5 ppg), who always gets his teammates involved in the game (7.1 apg). Senior Melvin Scott (9.9 ppg) is a terrific role player, but his minutes may be reduced this year with the addition of Marvin Williams. J.R. Smith backed out of his commitment to UNC to turn pro, the Tar Heels stopped pursuing JamesOn Curry (now at Oklahoma State), but Williams will suit up this season and the 6-9 225-pound, freshman is an ultra-athletic forward with the ability to jump out of the building.

GEORGIA TECH - Paul Hewitt led his Yellow Jackets to a magical season in 2003-04, as Georgia Tech won 28 games and made it all the way to the national title game, before falling to UConn. The maturation process in Atlanta was certainly sped up by the extraordinary play of guard B.J. Elder. The 6-4 senior averaged 14.9 points per game last season and if the team had a healthy Elder in the lineup in the Final Four (missed one game and was hobbled against the Huskies), who knows what would have happened. With Elder at 100-percent, the sky is the limit for the Yellow Jackets. The Yellow Jackets will probably run small once again this year, with point guard Jarrett Jack (12.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.6 apg) running the offense and senior Will Bynum (9.6 ppg) completing a wonderful three-guard set. The inside game will fall on the shoulders of emerging center Luke Schenscher (9.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and active forwards Anthony McHenry and Isma'il Muhammad. At 7-1, 250 pounds, Schenscher really came on strong in the latter parts of last season and will certainly present interior matchup problems for most opponents this year. No longer the hunter, the Yellow Jackets will certainly not sneak up on anyone this time around. How the team handles the role of the "hunted" will go a long way in determining just how far it will go in 2004-05.

DUKE - The Blue Devils are so loaded with talent year in and year out, that it is inevitable that pieces to the puzzle end up leaving Durham early. This year Coach K will have to replace Luol Deng, who decided to join the NBA after just one season at Duke. While his 15.1 points per game will surely be missed, there is plenty of reason to expect another run at both the conference and national crowns. Last season, Duke finished with a 31-6 record, winning the ACC title and making a run all the way to the Final Four, where the team fell to eventual champion UConn. Reaching 30 wins this year may be too much to ask, but that doesn't mean the Blue Devils will be anything but an elite national contender. Deng may have left for the NBA, but Mike Krzyzewski didn't, as his courtship with the Los Angeles Lakers was very short-lived. Coach K returns plenty of talent this season, led by the sharp-shooting of junior J.J. Redick. The 6-4 Redick averaged nearly 16 points per game last season, while shooting almost 40 percent from behind the arc (.395). Daniel Ewing (12.6 ppg) is another superb shooter (led the ACC in three-point accuracy at .411), but he usually saves his best for tournament time (twice an ACC Tournament First-Team member and once the tourney MVP). The emergence of junior forward Shelden Williams (12.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) in the paint will keep teams honest inside. Williams should get help up front from fellow forward Shavlik Randolph (7.0 ppg). There is a change at the point, where Chris Duhon reigned supreme for a few years. Junior Sean Dockery will get every opportunity to win the job, now that recruit Shaun Livingston (fourth pick in the NBA Draft) decided to forgo college. Freshman DeMarcus Nelson will provide some scoring punch in the backcourt, but running the offense is not his strong suit. Duke is usually among the top offensive teams in the nation and that shouldn't change with this talented group.

MARYLAND - The Terrapins won 20 games last season and a surprising run to the ACC Tournament title may have hopes in College Park much higher than they probably should be. Gary Williams' squad finished in sixth place in the ACC a year ago (7-9), but strong play in the tournament gave the team its first tourney title since 1984. Considered an extremely young team last year, Maryland is now comprised of a seasoned nucleus, led by the budding star John Gilchrist (15.9 ppg). Now a junior, it is Gilchrist who Williams will look to for veteran leadership. Fellow junior Chris McCray is one of the most underrated players in the conference and has the ability to take over a game offensively, coming off a season in which he netted 11.0 ppg. Throw in sophomore Mike Jones (4.9 ppg) and the backcourt should have a big year in terms of offensive production. The frontcourt has good depth, with the return of forwards Nik Caner-Medley (12.2 ppg), Travis Garrison (7.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Ekene Ibekwe. However, the Terps may have trouble in the paint. The loss of Jamar Smith (13.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg) will be huge for this team. Ibekwe led the team in blocked shots last year and will be asked to man the middle, while sophomore big man Hassan Fofana (6-10, 290) will be called upon to provide minutes inside as well. Defense is the key to Maryland's strong play over the last few years and Williams will once again preach at that end of the court. If you can't play defense, you can't play for Gary Williams. Sophomore swingman D.J. Strawberry epitomizes that philosophy and should see his minutes increase with his hard work at the defensive end of the court.

NC STATE - Another ACC team that reached the 20-win plateau was the Wolfpack (21-10). Herb Sendek's squad finished second in the ACC with an 11-5 record and while those numbers are within reach this time around, a middle of the road finish in the conference standings is more likely. NC State may perhaps have the best player in the country in swingman Julius Hodge, but having an athlete like Hodge doesn't exactly make you a great team. That is NC State's plight this season. Hodge is an unstoppable force, who was named the ACC Player of the Year in 2003-04 after averaging 18.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Trying to become the first player to win the award in consecutive seasons since Wake Forest's Tim Duncan (1996-97), Hodge will have his work cut out for him. Hodge is the center piece of this offense, with plenty of perimeter support. While no one on the roster shoots the lights out from long range, there is plenty of scorers that will have a chance to support Hodge's efforts. Sophomore guard Engin Atsur will run the point along with Georgetown transfer Tony Bethel, a former double-digit scorer with the Hoyas. At times, both players will probably be on the court, giving NC State a fast group that can get up and down the court. Junior forward Ilian Evtimov (9.8 ppg) is now back to health and his reemergence as a threat along the perimeter is a must. The team's Achilles' heel will be inside, where it will certainly miss the play of forward/center Marcus Melvin (14.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg). There isn't a dominant rebounder on the team and you can't expect Hodge (6.4 rpg) to give more than he already has on the glass. Those who will need to step up in the paint are senior forward Levi Watkins (6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and incoming freshman forward/center Cedric Simmons (6-10, 205).

FLORIDA STATE - Leonard Hamilton has made a habit of turning programs around and that has certainly held true in Tallahassee, where the Seminoles posted their first winning season in six years by going 19-14 a year ago. After a fast start however, FSU finished a disappointing seventh in the ACC (6-10). The team will try to build on the positives from last year, but will have to do so without the services of all-conference guard Tim Pickett. The 6-4 scoring machine (16.5 ppg) made a lot of tough shots when needed and his veteran leadership will certainly be missed this time around. However, the cupboard isn't exactly bare. The team had one of the conference's most exciting newcomers last year in forward/center Alexander Johnson, who should see the ball more inside this season. Sophomore Von Wafer (7.9 ppg) will be the player that ignites this team. The 6-5 youngster has a lot of the same attributes that Pickett brought to the team and will be looked upon for that kind of leadership. Depth is found all over the roster, with forwards Anthony Richardson (7.3 ppg) and Adam Waleskowski (6.8 ppg), not to mention incoming talents like junior forward Diego Romero and freshman guard Isaiah Swann. Romero redshirted last season and played for the Argentinean National Junior Team. Romero can shoot the lights out and will be a welcome addition to a team that will need to be clicking on all cylinders to improve its ACC standing this season.

VIRGINIA - There was plenty of reason to think that Pete Gillen would be looking for a job last year, but then the Cavaliers responded by winning six of their last 10 games, including some huge upsets in the ACC. The real problem for this team has been its lack of success on the road. Last season, the Cavs were just 4-9 away from Charlottesville and that number will certainly need to improve if Virginia wants to stay out of the bottom half of the conference standings. There is plenty of talent available to make a run at a 20-win campaign, led by one of the conference's premiere frontcourt players in 6-9 senior forward Elton Brown. He shot over 50 percent from the floor last season and averaged a solid 14.9 points per game, while hauling in over six boards per outing. However, Brown cannot do it alone inside and another body on the boards is a must. Where the team will find that player remains to be seen though. Senior forward Devin Smith (12.2 ppg) has the ability to score in bunches, but at 6-5, he is not the big body the team desperately needs inside. Despite losing sharpshooter Todd Billet, the backcourt is in fine shape with the return of youngsters J.R. Reynolds (9.4 ppg as a freshman) and T.J. Bannister (3.6 ppg as a freshman). The sophomore duo will lead the perimeter charge for the Cavaliers this season. Sean Singletary is an incoming freshman that should push for time at the point right away. He is a talented prospect who loves to push the ball up and down the court. Still, Gillen will need his team to shoot well from long range, as well as tighten things up defensively. Unfortunately, both areas of Virginia's game will probably not improve dramatically this season.

VIRGINIA TECH - Two seasons and two different conferences for Virginia Tech head man Seth Greenberg. In his inaugural season in Blacksburg, Greenberg led the Hokies to a 15-14 finish, only good for eighth place in the Big East, but showed enough to prove that he is the right man for the job at Tech. The team managed a winning season last year, but was extremely one-dimensional, riding the wave of momentum provided by All-American Bryant Matthews, who was one of the Big East's top stars, averaging a hefty 22.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Those numbers will be impossible to match by any one player this season, but the return of senior swingman Carlos Dixon (13.8 ppg in 2002-03) from a season-ending foot injury and surgery is a good place to start. Last season, a pair of freshmen handled the backcourt duties in Zabian Dowdell (10.8 ppg) and Jamon Gordon (9.8 ppg). Both should continue to see their games rise in their new conference and with the addition of incoming freshman Marquie Cooke (6-3, 200) this is a backcourt that could be a real asset to the Hokies. There is no low post game to speak of for Virginia Tech now that Matthews has moved on. The 6-8, 230-pound Coleman Collins (8.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg) has shown signs of becoming a solid contributor down low, but there is little else in terms of a proven commodity. In 2004-05, Dixon, like Matthews before him, will need to carry this team at the offense end and hope that his teammates can help night in and night out. Although the Big East is a formidable conference, the Hokies are likely to find the road even tougher in the first season in the ACC.

CLEMSON - Although no stranger to the ACC, the Clemson Tigers are strangers to success in the conference. Oliver Purnell is now in his second season with the Tigers and has a history of turning programs around. His first season was nothing to revel in at 10-18, including a last place finish in the conference, so an improvement this year is a must. Fortunately for Purnell, he will have a solid big man to rely on this season in senior forward Sharrod Ford. The 6-9, 220-pound Ford is the team's top returning scorer (11.9 ppg) and rebounder (7.2 rpg) and is a legitimate frontcourt asset. Fellow senior Olu Babalola (6-6, 255) will need to assert himself down low this year after trying to show his perimeter game too often last season. He averaged 9.0 points, but only 4.6 rpg and will need to be more physical to help Ford down low. Joining the cause will be junior forward Akin Akingbala (6-9, 220), who should see a huge boost in minutes in 2004-05. The backcourt was young a year ago and should be solid this time around with return of junior Shawan Robinson (10.8 ppg) and sophomore Vernon Hamilton (7.3 ppg, 3.3 apg). Freshmen Cliff Hammonds (6-3. 175) and Troy Mathis (6-0, 200) could provide immediate support in the backcourt as well.

MIAMI-FLORIDA - Close calls were the name of the game for the Hurricanes a year ago, as a 1-12 finish down the stretch was highlighted by four overtime defeats. There is enough talent on the roster to improve on last year's 14-16 overall record, but the ACC schedule may prove to be too much for first-year coach Frank Haith and his Hurricanes. Haith was one of the nation's premiere assistants under Rick Barnes at Texas and it is hoped that in his first stint as a head coach, he will be able to turn things around at Miami. There is plenty of veteran talent to work with here, led by junior guard Robert Hite (15.2 ppg). An athletic scorer both inside and out, Hite will do just fine in the ACC. His backcourt mate is sophomore guard Guillermo Diaz, who netted 11.8 ppg a year ago and shot 46.1 percent from behind the arc when he did let it fly from long range. The loss of Darius Rice in the frontcourt will be hard to overcome this season, but Rice was more of a perimeter threat. The team will need someone to step up inside, especially against some of the better teams in the conference, but Haith may not have that player on the roster in 2004-05. Gary Hamilton (6-10, 250) and Glenn Batemon (6-11, 335) are the likely candidates to fill the need, but neither is a proven commodity.