*** College Basketball Preview - Southern Conference ***
The My Sportsbook
By Pat Taggart, College Basketball Staff Writer
OUTLOOK: In the SoCon's North Division, East Tennessee State is once again the team to beat. The Bucs will be vying for their fifth straight share of the North Division title, and it will be interesting to see if this year's club can be as good as the group last year that went 15-1 against league opponents. The stiffest competition from within the North Division may come from Chattanooga, as it certainly has the bodies up front to cause problems. The biggest question for the Mocs involves its young guards, a group of talented performers who must pay dividends right away. UNC-Greensboro finished below .500 in conference play a year ago at 7-9, but a wealth of talent has been added to the program. Expect the Spartans to win one or two more conference tilts than they did last season. The same could be true for Elon, as it has every significant contributor back from the 2003-04 squad. There may not be a better darkhorse candidate in the SoCon than the Phoenix. Appalachian State and Western Carolina round out the North Division, and it would be surprising to see either one of those clubs win more than four league tilts. As for the South Division, Davidson is loaded for a run at the crown. The Wildcats were tremendous in the second half of the league season a year ago, and the roster is loaded with returning talent. College of Charleston will undoubtedly be tough as well, as the program is coming off another 20-win season that included 11 league victories. The Cougars may have the best perimeter depth of any squad in the league. Georgia Southern has put up big offensive numbers in recent years, and there is reason to be optimistic once again. Furman, like Elon, has a tremendous collection of young players who could turn some heads. The good news for Wofford is that the majority of its key contributors are back from a year ago. That team finished 4-12 in league play, however, so the group has proven little. Rounding out the South Division is The Citadel, and there is no reason to believe that the Bulldogs will be able to get out of the basement this year.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Davidson
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: NORTH: 1. East Tennessee State; 2. Chattanooga; 3. UNC Greensboro; 4. Elon; 5. Appalachian State; 6. Western Carolina
SOUTH: 1. Davidson; 2. College of Charleston; 3. Georgia Southern; 4. Furman; 5. Wofford; 6. The Citadel
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
NORTH:
EAST TENNESSEE STATE: The Bucs lost some talented performers from last year's outstanding team, but they are expected to be potent once again with Tim Smith running the show. The 5-9 point guard led ETSU to the SoCon Tournament championship and a berth in the NCAA Tournament last March, and he was recently named the league's Preseason Player of the Year. Smith averaged 17.7 ppg and 4.5 apg last year, and there is no reason that he couldn't average 20.0 ppg or more in 2004-05. While Smith is understandably the headliner, there are other capable performers on the roster. Senior James Anthony and juniors Ben Rhoda and Brad Nuckles all have talent and experience. Rhoda averaged 10.7 ppg thanks to 54.3 percent shooting from the floor a year ago, and he will likely be the second option this year.
CHATTANOOGA: John Shulman's tenure as head coach of the Mocs will officially begin November 20th against Toccoa Falls. Shulman's squad figures to win that game and many more this year, but it remains to be seen if the group has what it takes to challenge ETSU for divisional supremacy. Ashley Champion and Jason Rogan are gone, but the frontcourt is in good hands thanks to Chris Brown, Alphonso Pugh and Mindaugas Katelynas. Pugh averaged 11.1 ppg and 5.2 rpg a year ago and is the leading returnee in both categories. As for Brown, a swingman who shot nearly 40 percent from behind the arc, he netted 10.6 ppg in 2003-04. Katelynas has the best size of the trio at 6-9, and he has looked outstanding in preseason workouts. If one or two of the rookie guards can step in and contribute immediately, ETSU could have a problem.
UNC-GREENSBORO: It is clear that the success of UNC-Greensboro will hinge greatly on the play of senior forward Ronnie Burrell, a member of the preseason All-SoCon First Team. Burrell shot 58.4 percent from the floor a year ago and averaged 17.1 ppg and 7.6 rpg against conference opposition. Unfortunately, the team's two best offensive options aside from Burrell are gone, and he will rely on an influx of talent to help carry the load. Coach Fran McCaffery did a tremendous job of recruiting, but it remains to be seen if the young players who were brought in are ready for immediate action.
ELON: The Phoenix possess arguably the premier big man in the league in the person of Jackson Atoyebi, a member of the All-SoCon Preseason First Team. Although he is just 6-6, Atoyebi does carry a 250-pound frame that enables him to anchor down in the post. Atoyebi finished the 2003-04 season ranked among league leaders in scoring (sixth/16.1 ppg), rebounding (third/7.8 rpg) and field goal percentage (sixth/.562), and he showed tremendous consistency by scoring in double digits in 29 of 30 games. Fortunately for Atoyebi, all seven of the top scorers from the team a year ago (including himself) are back. Scottie Rice and Matt Nowlin both averaged double figures in points last season, and their ability to score prevents teams from focusing too much on Atoyebi.
APPALACHIAN STATE: After a strong start last season, the Mountaineers quite simply collapsed. One player who plans to help avoid a similar fate this year is Noah Brown, the leading scorer from a year ago (13.1 ppg). Brown made good on only 37.1 percent of his field goal attempts in 2003-04, including 31.6 percent from three-point range, and a much more accurate showing is needed this year. Fellow senior Chris McFarland is back as well, and the 6-5 forward pitched in 11.7 ppg and 5.0 rpg as the team's only other double-digit scorer. There are certainly better duos in the league than Brown and McFarland, and their supporting cast is weak. There isn't much reason for Appalachian State to be optimistic.
WESTERN CAROLINA: Kevin Martin meant everything to the Catamounts, and his enormous talent was rewarded with a first round draft choice in the most recent NBA Draft. Without the superb performer, Western Carolina could be on the verge of a truly miserable campaign. For this team to even be competitive, a pair of juniors must carry the load. Center David Berghoefer was the only double-digit scorer aside from Martin last year (12.4 ppg), and Muirhead wasn't far off the mark (9.2 ppg). Berghoefer posted 13.2 ppg and 7.9 rpg in 2003-04 against league opponents, and he has what it takes to be an all- conference performer. As for Muirhead, he will get considerably more looks at the hoop than he did a year ago.
SOUTH:
DAVIDSON: The Wildcats, who finished in a three-way tie for first in the South last year, have been picked to win the division this season by the league's coaches. Head coach Bob McKillop likes the high expectations, as he was with the program when it was picked to finish near the bottom of the standings just a few years ago. A major reason that Davidson is expected to be so good is the return of junior guard Brendan Winters. Winters, a 2004 All-SoCon performer, followed an outstanding freshman campaign with an even more impressive sophomore season. The standout led the Wildcats in scoring with an average of 17.8 ppg, third-best in the league. Winters was even more impressive in conference action, netting 20.3 ppg (second-best in the SoCon). The 'Cats return their top five scorers and top four rebounders, so all of the hype appears to be justified.
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON: The Cougars are coming off a 20-9 record last season and their sixth consecutive SoCon South Division title. They open their season on November 15th against Colorado in the opening round of the Preseason NIT, and third-year coach Tom Herrion hopes to lead his group to its 12th straight 20-win campaign in 2004-05. Georgetown transfer Drew Hall is expected to contribute in a major way right from the season's opening whistle. As for the returnees, Tony Mitchell and Stanley Jackson are the best of the bunch. Mitchell averaged 12.9 ppg a year ago thanks to his 39.9 percent accuracy from three-point range, and Jackson pitched in 9.9 ppg. While the backcourt is set with Mitchell, Jackson and Hall, the team will need some of its unproven frontcourt players to make some noise.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles possess one of the league's elite backcourt duos, as Elton Nesbitt and Terry Williams are both outstanding performers. Williams is still recovering from surgery that removed a portion of the meniscus in his left knee. The arthroscopic surgery, performed in late October, was the second performed on the knee since the end of the 2003-04 season, but he is expected to be ready to go by the opener. Nesbitt led the Eagles in scoring last season at 15.7 ppg while also dishing out 105 assists, second on the squad to Williams' 158. Speaking of Williams, he netted 12.1 ppg despite the fact that he struggled with this shooting accuracy. Much like College of Charleston, Georgia Southern has to prove that its frontcourt is capable of being formidable.
FURMAN: Last season, a group of freshmen developed into solid contributors for the Paladins. Now, with a whole year of experience under their respective belts, the sophomores are ready to challenge some of the division's better teams. Quan Prowell may be the best of the bunch, and he has been named to the All-SoCon preseason team. Prowell, the reigning league Freshman of the Year, was the only Paladin named to the 10-man squad. Last season, the 6-8 standout averaged 9.9 ppg and 4.4 rpg while shooting 53.3 percent from the field. Robby Bostain, a fellow sophomore, is the only returning double-digit scorer for the squad (10.2 ppg). Senior forward Nick Sanders and junior guard Tony Carter add some steady veteran play to the roster.
WOFFORD: Developing team chemistry shouldn't be a problem for Wofford, as all the key contributors from last year are back as mentioned. What will be challenging is getting the group to play up to its potential and ultimately win games. Howard Wilkerson is one of the conference's top frontcourt performers, and the 6-6 junior is coming off an impressive 2003-04 campaign in which he averaged 13.8 ppg and 8.0 rpg while shooting 57.3 percent from the floor. Wilkerson proved his versatility by also contributing 69 assists, 38 steals and 25 blocked shots. In SoCon games only, Wilkerson ranked first in rebounding with 8.8 rpg. Adrien Borders is the only other returning double- digit scorer, as he netted 10.9 ppg a year ago. While he and Wilkerson will be solid once again, the Terriers will likely lose plenty more games than they win.
THE CITADEL: It's pretty safe to say that The Citadel is the least talented team in the league. The leading scorer from last season, Dante Terry, returns his 11.3 ppg to the lineup, but he shot only 34.2 percent from the floor. Kevin Hammack should be solid this year, as he is coming off a campaign in which he averaged 10.1 ppg in league action. As for J'mel Everhart, he is the top returning rebounder for the club at 7.0 rpg. If those three players (Terry, Hammack and Everhart) can improve significantly from last season, The Citadel will be able to be at least competitive most nights. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that such a thing will happen.
