*** College Basketball Preview - Southeastern Conference ***
The My Sportsbook
By Pat Taggart, College Basketball Staff Writer
OUTLOOK: It is generally agreed by many basketball analysts that the ACC is the top basketball conference in the nation this year. While that may be true, the SEC is probably second. Florida has not won the league's East Division outright in 13 years, a stat somewhat hard to believe considering the wealth of talent that head coach Billy Donovan has attracted to Gainesville. A major reason for the lack of supremacy has been that other elite team in the division, the Kentucky Wildcats. Tubby Smith always has a group of unselfish players who believe in the importance of defense. Florida is loaded, but Kentucky has to be considered the favorite once again. Tennessee will make some noise in the East, as an experienced group of starters overshadow a weak recruiting class. After those three squads, there is a significant drop off when talking about the East's other three teams. Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Georgia will obviously pick up some wins by beating up on each other, but none of those squads can contend with the top three. Out West, Mississippi State is once again the team to beat since super forward Lawrence Roberts decided to put the NBA on hold. The toughest divisional opponent for the Bulldogs figures to be Alabama, as its starting five is among the best in the league. The same can be said of LSU, which is experienced and talented both in the frontcourt and backcourt. Arkansas looks like a middle-of-the-pack squad at best, but a tremendous recruiting class makes the future exciting for Stan Heath's program. Ole Miss and Auburn round out the West, and both figure to struggle mightily. Overall, its hard to pick anyone other than Tubby and his 'Cats as the league's elite team.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Kentucky
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: EAST: 1. Kentucky; 2. Florida; 3. Tennessee; 4. South Carolina; 5. Vanderbilt; 6. Georgia
WEST: 1. Mississippi State; 2. Alabama; 3. LSU; 4. Arkansas; 5. Ole Miss; 6. Auburn
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
EAST:
KENTUCKY: The Wildcats dropped a one-point decision to UAB in the second round of the NCAA Tournament a year ago, and the team is certainly eager to get back to action. Running the point this year for the 'Cats will be Patrick Sparks, a transfer from Western Kentucky who sat out all of last season. A tremendous leader, Sparks will be joined in the backcourt by some of the nation's top recruits. Ramel Bradley is a fearless penetrator with the ball in his hands, while Rajon Rondo is a tremendous passer. Up front, small forward Kelenna Azubuike averaged 11.1 ppg last season and figures to improve on that figure in 2004-05. Teammate Chuck Hayes can do a little bit of everything, as he posted 10.7 ppg and 8.1 rpg while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor and blocking 45 shots. Hayes even recorded 41 steals, making him one of the nation's most complete frontcourt performers. The man in the middle will be super freshman Randolph Morris, a 6-11, 250-pound blue chipper who strongly considered entering the NBA Draft. Kentucky's frontcourt will be among the nation's best, and the only question is whether the freshmen guards are ready for the spotlight.
FLORIDA: It can be argued that no team in the nation has a better collection of three players than Florida, as David Lee, Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson are enormously talented. Those standouts should be motivated after losing to Manhattan by 15 points in the first round of the NCAA Tournament a year ago. Roberson was a First Team All-SEC selection in 2003-04 after netting 17.9 ppg, the most by a UF player in 10 years. He is a deadly penetrator with a natural shooting stroke. Walsh scored in double figures in all but one conference game and is a tremendous passer as well. As for Lee, who fell a bit short of the enormous expectations placed on him a year ago (13.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), although he still posted strong numbers. Coach Donovan expects even more from his versatile forward this year, and his play on the block will be critical. Corey Brewer may be the most talented of a sensational group of freshmen, as the 6-8 swingman figures to see a wealth of playing time as a rookie.
TENNESSEE: The Volunteers won just one more game than they lost a year ago and were bounced from the NIT by George Mason in the first round. Still, all of the team's noteworthy contributors are back, and while few talented recruits were brought in, this season should be a successful one. Scooter McFadgon ranked fourth in the SEC in scoring a year ago with 17.6 ppg, and 91.2 percent shooting from the foul line made him the go-to guy in clutch situations. Backcourt mate C.J. Watson, averaged 11.5 ppg and 5.0 apg from the point. The challenge for Watson has nothing to do with his physical ability, as he needs to become more of a vocal leader. Brandon Crump is clearly the team's top frontcourt performer, as he is coming off a campaign in which he averaged 14.8 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He should get some help from UCLA transfer Andre Patterson, a 6-7 performer who plays like a seven-footer. Tennessee will win more games than it loses, but it remains to be seen if the squad can contend with Kentucky and Florida.
SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks have a number of winnable games early on against non-league foes, so another quick start like last season is possible. When SEC play rolls around, however, wins will not come nearly as often. Tre Kelley will run Dave Odom's team from the point, and while he is a tremendous defender and passer, he needs to become a more accurate shooter. Josh Gonner can score, but consistency is the key to his sustained success. Odom likes to start three guards, and Tarence Kinsey will get the nod for that reason. Kinsey has good size at 6-6 but struggled with his shot at times and turned the ball over way too much. Up front. Carlos Powell is a standout. He led the club with 12.2 ppg and 6.2 rpg a year ago, and he will be even more dangerous if he can hit the three with more consistency. Renaldo Balkman shot 55.8 percent from the floor a year ago, but the fact that he averaged only 6.9 ppg suggests that he was rarely aggressive offensively. A terrific shot blocker because of his athleticism, Balkman could be the difference this season for a South Carolina team that will never be an easy out for any opponent.
VANDERBILT: Matt Freije meant everything to Vanderbilt last season, and he will clearly be missed. Still, the players that remain for the Commodores will now be forced to make plays on their own rather than wait to be bailed out by a star. Dawid Przybyszewski is the most intriguing player for the squad, as the 7-2 power forward nailed 51 three-pointers a year ago at a 45.5 percent clip. Rarely can one player be labeled his team's best shooter and shot blocker, but that is certainly the case with Przybyszewski. Corey Smith plays hard up front and is counted on to do the dirty work. Mario Moore, the team's point guard, is the only returning double-digit scorer for the Commodores (11.2 ppg). A proven leader who is not shaken by pressure, Moore figures to average at least 10 points once again thanks to his ability to get to the hoop. Backcourt mate Jason Holwerda, an accurate mid-range shooter, is a defensive stopper who can shut down the opposition's top offensive option. Vandy made it to the Sweet 16 in last year's NCAA Tournament, but this year's squad will be NIT bound at best.
GEORGIA: It wasn't long ago that Georgia was considered an SEC powerhouse in hoops. Oh how quickly things have changed, as it will now be surprising if the 'Dawgs do not finish last in the East. Sure, sophomore guard Levi Stukes is a talented performer who will only get better with experience. He struggled with his shot at times as a freshman, but he can take over games when hot. Still, the overall starting lineup for coach Dennis Felton's club is weak, and his bench is equally poor. Hopefully, freshman Channing Toney will be able to provide a spark for the club from the outside. Son of former NBA standout Andrew Toney, Channing can score in bunches. Any more than three league wins by the 'Dawgs will be something of a surprise.
WEST:
MISSISSIPPI STATE: Put simply, forward Lawrence Roberts is one of the top five players in the nation. The Bulldogs went 26-4 a year ago, and no one was more responsible for that success than Roberts. He averaged 16.9 ppg and 10.1 ppg while shooting 51.9 percent from the floor. Although not a big-time three- point threat, Roberts can nail an open jumper. He will miss the season opener because of a suspension, but the stud forward is primed for a huge year. Plenty of offensive help will come from Winsome Frazier, a versatile swingman who averaged 13.1 ppg a year ago. Frazier is more than just a scorer, however, as his 2.37 spg led the SEC. The man in charge of putting the ball in the hands of Roberts and Frazier will be Gary Ervin, a lighting quick penetrator who showed some positive signs as a freshman a year ago. The recruiting class for the Bulldogs is a tremendous one, headlined by 6-9 frontcourt terror Charles Rhodes. Expected to be the team's top primary shot blocker, Rhodes should see plenty of time along with 5-9 juco transfer Jamall Edmondson.
ALABAMA: Mark Gottfried does not have the deepest team in the league, but it is impossible to talk about the most talented starting units without at least mentioning Alabama. The Tide will look to Earnest Shelton to provide some offense after he averaged 15.8 ppg a year ago. In addition to his ability to score, Shelton is probably the team's best passer. Joining Shelton in the backcourt will be Ronald Steele, a freshman point guard who was twice named Alabama's Mr. Basketball as a prep star. Up front, everything revolves around stud forward Kennedy Winston, a 6-6 junior who averaged 17.0 ppg a year ago. This may be Winston's final season in Tuscaloosa, as NBA scouts project he may be a lottery pick. Fellow forward Chuck Davis does not get nearly as much attention as his teammates, but he averaged 11.5 ppg and 5.9 rpg in 2003-04 and figures to continue his rapid improvement. Don't be at all surprised if Alabama, and not Mississippi State, claims the SEC West crown.
LSU: The most intriguing player for LSU has never even played a game for the program, as McDonald's All-American Glen Davis will be hard to miss with his 6-8, 310-pound frame. Not just a big body, Davis is enormously skilled and agile for a player his size. He will be joined in the frontcourt by Brandon Bass who averaged 12.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg a year ago. Bass considered turning pro but wisely returned to school for at least another season. As for the guards, Xavier Whipple, Darrel Mitchell and Antonio Hudson form a solid group. Mitchell is a dangerous shooter who averaged 11.9 ppg a year ago thanks to his 41.9 percent accuracy from behind the arc. Hudson contributed 10.2 ppg despite hitting less than 40 percent of his field goal attempts, and Whipple is more of a passer than a scorer. There is obviously plenty of talent in place, and Davis will be the key to this team's overall success.
ARKANSAS: Jonathon Modica has led Arkansas in scoring for two straight years, and there is no reason to believe that the junior won't do it again this season. He is coming off a campaign in which he posted 16.5 ppg, and there are fewer players who can get as hot as Modica has gotten during certain streaks. Ronnie Brewer plays the wing position and earned Freshman All-America honors a year ago after averaging 12.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.4 apg and 2.0 spg. He started all 28 games as a rookie and figures to improve in his second year, a scary thought for opponents. Eric Ferguson will run things from the point, but Dontell Jefferson figures to see some time as well after transferring in from the junior college ranks. Up front, Olu Famutimi figures to improve on the 7.0 ppg he tallied as a freshman. Also, freshman center Steven Hill is considered one of the top rookies in the SEC this season. There is no question that Arkansas head coach Stan Heath has the program headed in the right direction.
OLE MISS: Justin Reed and Aaron Harper combined to score more points than any other tandem in the SEC last season. Those two players are gone, and with them any chance Ole Miss had of competing in the West. Todd Abernathy did well enough as a freshman at the point to hold on to his spot heading into this season. He did not post huge numbers, but the poise and smarts he displayed impressed head coach Rod Barnes. Of the other backcourt performers, no one has shown much in the way of scoring ability. Up front, Kendrick Fox and Marvin Moore are being counted on heavily. The 6-7 Fox is a threat from the perimeter, while Moore has the athletic ability to cause matchup problems on the interior. Tommie Eddie will man the middle, but he has yet to prove anything. Don't be surprised if 6-9 rookie Jeremy Parnell is the starter by the time SEC play rolls around. In the grand scheme of things, it won't matter as Ole Miss simply isn't good enough to compete.
AUBURN: The situation with the basketball program at Auburn is a mess, as three starters decided to transfer when Cliff Ellis was fired after last season. New coach Jeff Lebo has his work cut out for him, as only 10 total players remain on the roster, including a walk-on and four freshmen. One of the only positives that can be pointed out is that this year's team should be fairly solid in the backcourt, as Ian Young and Nathan Watson are experienced performers. Young can penetrate and pass effectively, and he will be counted on to supply leadership. The talented guard averaged 10.0 ppg a year ago and must up that production significantly for the Tigers to be successful. Watson (7.5 ppg) is a gritty defender who can score as well, especially from the perimeter. Ronny LeMelle, another three-point threat, will get some minutes at guard as well. The frontcourt will be weak, as Quinnel Brown is the only player worthy of mention. Expect Auburn to hit alot of threes and lose alot of games in 2004-05.
