***** NLCS Preview - Houston vs. St. Louis *****
By Eric Gold, MLB Editor
HOUSTON ASTROS: NL wild card winner; def. Atlanta, 3-2 in NLDS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: NL Central champions; def. Los Angeles, 3-1 in NLDS
(My Sportsbook) - The St. Louis Cardinals haven't been to the World Series since 1987. The Houston Astros are coming off their first-ever playoff series victory. Those two Central Division rivals will meet for the first time in the postseason as they battle in the National League Championship Series.
The Cardinals are coming off a Division Series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games, while Houston was pushed to the limit before disposing of the Atlanta Braves, 12-3, Monday night for its first playoff series triumph in the 43-year history of the franchise.
It was a banner year for the Cardinals, who finished with a major league-best 105 victories and cruised to the Central Division title. They'll have home- field advantage for the NLCS.
St. Louis has lost in its last three trips to the NLCS, falling in five games to San Francisco in 2002 and the New York Mets in 2000. The Cardinals were on the verge of getting to the World Series in 1996, but had one of the worst collapses in major league history in that NLCS against Atlanta. It was Tony La Russa's first season as manager of the Cardinals, and they took a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, only to lose the final three games by a combined 32-1 score.
The last time the Cardinals were in the World Series, they dropped the final two contests, losing to the Minnesota Twins in seven games. They also lost to Kansas City in 1985 and last won the World Series in 1982 versus Milwaukee.
Although the Cardinals have a checkered past as far as crumpling in the postseason is concerned, this year the team has been dominant. Led by first baseman Albert Pujols and third baseman Scott Rolen, La Russa's team had the best offense in the National League during the regular season and it's carried over to the playoffs as the Cardinals hit seven homers during their series with the Dodgers.
The Astros are in the NLCS for the first time since 1986 when they lost to the New York Mets in six grueling games, with the final contest lasting 16 innings.
It was an amazing turnaround for the Astros just to secure the wild card berth on the final day of the regular season, as they won 36 of their final 46 contests this year. Led by the pitching duo of Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt, combined with the power of the Killer B's in right fielder Lance Berkman, center fielder Carlos Beltran, first baseman Jeff Bagwell and left fielder Craig Biggio, along with second baseman Jeff Kent, Houston powered its way into the playoffs.
The Astros beat the Cardinals in 10 of the 18 meetings this season, including the final four contests. However, by that time, in late September, the Cardinals were resting several starters, gearing up for the postseason.
LINEUP
The Killer B's catapulted the Astros to their first-ever playoff series win and the did it with the long ball. Houston homered 11 times in the series. Beltran went deep four times, breaking the Houston record for a postseason series. The old record was held by Ken Caminiti, who played 10 seasons with the Astros. Caminiti passed away on Sunday due to an apparent heart attack at age 41.
Beltran, who was acquired in mid-season from Kansas City, hit .455 (10-for-22) with nine RBI in the five games. Berkman hit .409, Biggio .400 and third baseman Morgan Ensberg .368.
Houston scored 36 runs in the five games versus the Braves, and the Astros figure to have a good offensive performance against the Cardinals, especially if Beltran continues his onslaught. Beltran hit just .217 this year versus the Cardinals, but Biggio (.311), Bagwell (.338) and Kent (.366) all did considerable damage versus St. Louis.
Raul Chavez and Brad Ausmus figure to split the catching duties again for Houston this series, while Jose Vizcaino will be counted on for his defense at shortstop.
Rolen drove in 124 runs and batted .358 with runners in scoring position this season, but a calf injury obviously slowed him down near the end of the year. He'll have to get his timing back for this series, especially considering Rolen went hitless in 12 at-bats in the NLDS, although he did walk six times.
Second baseman Tony Womack proved to be a durable leadoff hitter during the regular season, but he'll need to get on base more in this series and forget about his .158 batting average versus the Dodgers.
St. Louis led the National League in runs scored, hits, RBI, batting average and slugging percentage during the regular season and for good reason. The meat of the Cardinal order is so powerful right from the No. 2 hitter in right fielder Larry Walker to the usual No. 7 man in Reggie Sanders. In between those two there's Pujols, Rolen, shortstop Edgar Renteria and center fielder Jim Edmonds.
Let's not forget about catcher Mike Matheny, who drove in five runs in the NLDS.
Pujols batted .333 with two homers and five RBI versus LA, while Renteria (.455) and Walker (.333) also had a solid series. The Astros cannot afford to pitch around any of these hitters, because the Cardinals will make a team pay for walks with homers.
EDGE: ST. LOUIS
STARTING PITCHING
Since Clemens and Oswalt started the final two games of the NLDS, they will be pushed back for the beginning of this series, and that will definitely be n advantage for the Cardinals. Since Houston's series with the Braves went the distance, there's a chance only Clemens would get an opportunity to start twice in the NLCS, unless Oswalt comes back on short rest.
With that in mind, the Cardinals may actually have a slight advantage early in the series, provided Woody Williams has a similar outing like the one he had against the Dodgers last week. Williams allowed two runs over six innings in a Game 1 win over Los Angeles. However, the righthander struggled versus the Astros during the season, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts.
The Cardinal starters will all work on extended rest, as Matt Morris is slated to start Game 2, followed by Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis.
Houston will have Brandon Backe going in the opener, followed by Pete Munro, Clemens and Oswalt.
Marquis had the best year of his career, going 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts. From May 31 - September 4 he posted a career-best 11-game winning streak. The end of the regular season was a much different story for Marquis, as he lost three of his final four starts. He was then lifted after giving up four hits, including three homers, and three runs in 3 1/3 innings in a no- decision last Thursday.
Morris went 15-10 with a 4.72 ERA in 32 starts this season. The righthander had an 0-2 mark over his final four regular season outings. Morris is 1-4 all- time in the playoffs, and that includes a loss in Game 3 versus the Dodgers.
Suppan was super in Sunday's series-clinching win over the Dodgers, allowing two hits and two runs in seven innings. The righthander retired the final 14 batters he faced and will have a decided advantage by starting Game 4 on the road. The righthander compiled a 10-1 mark outside of Busch Stadium during the regular season.
All four Cardinal starters will have their hands full, especially knowing that the Astros are a better hitting team than the Dodgers.
Clemens and Oswalt dominated the competition during the regular season and both starters have pitched to a 3.00 ERA or below so far in the playoffs. Clemens and Oswalt both stifled the Cardinals in the regular season. Clemens had a 2-0 mark and a 2.36 ERA in four starts, while Oswalt was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three outings.
The Astros would rather not pitch Clemens or Oswalt on three days' rest. No matter how you slice it, manager Phil Garner had difficult decisions to make as far as the rotation was concerned for this series.
Munro, a 29-year-old righthander, won just two of his final 12 outings of the season. Backe has won three straight starts, including Game 3 of the NLDS, when he limited Atlanta to five hits and two runs over six innings. Now Backe will be pitching on three days' rest in the opener on Wednesday.
EDGE: HOUSTON
BULLPEN
The closers on both teams, Houston's Brad Lidge, and St. Louis' Jason Isringhausen, have the ability to dominate in the late innings. Lidge made three appearances in the NLDS, allowing four hits and a run in 4 1/3 innings. Lidge also had a save versus the Braves.
Lidge thoroughly dominated the Cardinals this year, allowing one hit in 9 2/3 scoreless innings and posting three saves in eight appearances. The righthander also had 16 strikeouts and just three walks.
Mike Gallo is the lone lefty in the bullpen for Houston, while Chad Harville is a good situational righthander. Dan Wheeler, Dan Miceli, Chad Qualls and Russ Springer will also get extended work.
St. Louis led the majors in ERA for a bullpen and for good reason with Isringhausen at the back end. He had a career high 47 saves, but also had seven blown saves this season. Lefties Ray King and Steve Kline are good situational guys out of the bullpen. Righthanders Julian Tavarez, Kiko Calero and Cal Eldred will also help out from the bullpen.
EDGE: HOUSTON
MANAGERS
Garner had a tough decision allowing Clemens and Oswalt to both pitch on three days' rest in the NLDS, but he didn't have much choice. When the chips were down, even after the team acquired Beltran, Garner maintained a positive attitude and his players believed anything was possible, even in mid-August when the team was certainly out of the playoff chase. Now they have an opportunity to move into the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
La Russa has been a manager every year since 1979, leading the Chicago White Sox (1979-86), Oakland Athletics (1986-95) and Cardinals (1996-present), but has just one World Series ring. That came in 1989 when the A's swept the Giants and it was in the middle of three consecutive AL pennants.
La Russa has guided the Cardinals to five postseason appearances in his nine years with the club and is a four-time Manager of the Year.
EDGE: ST. LOUIS
BENCH
Outfielders John Mabry, Roger Cedeno and So Taguchi are likely to be used in pinch-hitting situations only for the pitcher's spot in this series. Other than that, the Cardinals are pretty thin on the bench, although infielder Marlon Anderson and catcher Hector Luna may be used in double-switch situations.
Jason Lane and Orlando Palmeiro can be valuable pinch-hitters for the Astros, while Mike Lamb has proven himself with his bat and his infield experience.
EDGE: EVEN
PROGNOSIS
Not having Clemens and Oswalt start the first two games of this series could put Houston in a huge hole, and that's not a place where the Astros would be comfortable, especially against a team with a relentless lineup. Pujols has been on a tear and if Rolen can muster a few hits early in the series and be productive, don't be surprised if the Cardinals steamroll the Astros.
Prediction: ST. LOUIS IN FIVE
