(My Sportsbook) - The Indianapolis Colts and double-digit win seasons went together like peanut butter and jelly during the Tony Dungy era.

After taking the reins of the long-mediocre franchise in 2002, Dungy went an eye-popping 85-27 (.759) in seven years at the helm, winning at least 12 games in each of his final six seasons and bringing the City of Indianapolis its first Super Bowl title following the 2006 campaign.

The Colts have not known a season that didn't include postseason football since way back in 2001, when they played in the AFC East, the rival Jaguars and Titans played in something called the AFC Central, and there were no Houston Texans to push around.

At some point, that run of success is going to come to an end, and it's worth wondering whether this is the year Indianapolis takes a step back.

Dungy is gone, exiting the grind in favor of a career as a television commentator and personal savior of Michael Vick. Promoted to his position was assistant head coach Jim Caldwell, who was a robust 26-63 as the leader at Wake Forest from 1993 to 2000, his only previous head coaching stop.

Eight of the Colts' 12 wins last year came by seven points or less, including five won by four points or fewer...will this year's Indy team be able to gut out those wins without looking to the serene Dungy on the sideline?

Well-respected defensive coordinator Ron Meeks is also gone, replaced by ex- Broncos assistant Larry Coyer.

The good news on the staff front is that longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore and o-line coach Howard Mudd will return to their former positions after initially announcing their "retirement," followed by a sketchy announcement that they would serve as "advisors." Caldwell made it clear at the outset of training camp that Moore and Mudd would remain in their long-established roles.

However, even though personnel turnover was minimal during the offseason and Peyton Manning will continue to pull the trigger, you can poke holes in the team's roster as well.

The running game was second-to-last in the league last year due in large part to problems up front, and there isn't much more talent among that group. There are no meaningful additions to a mediocre defense either, and if the oft- injured Bob Sanders and hit-or-miss Dwight Freeney should go down or under-perform, where would that leave the defense?

Then, of course, there is the fact that Indianapolis is going to have to navigate the minefield that will be the 2009 version of the AFC South. The Colts' domination of the division officially ended last year when the 13-3 Titans topped the South chart, and an up-and-coming Texans team and now- healthy Jaguars squad are thinking playoffs as well.

In all, Caldwell's job in his first year as an NFL head coach will be to disprove the notion that the Colts are taking on water and receding to the middle of the AFC pack after years spent in Super Bowl contention.

If he can't pull it off, Caldwell will go down as another in a long line of successors who wasn't up to the daunting task of following a legend.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2009 edition of the Indianapolis Colts, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2008 RECORD: 12-4 (2nd, AFC South)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2008, lost to San Diego, 23-17 (OT), in AFC Wild Card

COACH (RECORD): Jim Caldwell (first season with Colts, first overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Tom Moore

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Larry Coyer

OFFENSIVE STAR: Peyton Manning, QB (4002 passing yards, 27 TD, 12 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Bob Sanders, S (39 tackles, 1 INT)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 31st rushing, 5th passing, 13th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 24th rushing, 6th passing, 7th scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Curtis Painter (6th Round, Purdue), RB Donald Brown (1st Round, Connecticut), DT Ed Johnson (free agent), DT Fili Moala (2nd Round, USC), LB Adam Seward (from Panthers), CB Jerraud Powers (3rd Round, Auburn), P/K Pat McAfee (7th Round, West Virginia)

KEY DEPARTURES: RB Dominic Rhodes (to Bills), RB Najeh Davenport (not tendered), WR Marvin Harrison (released), DT Darrell Reid (to Broncos), LB Buster Davis (released), CB Keiwan Ratliff (to Steelers), P Hunter Smith (to Redskins)

QB: Back for year number 12 behind center will be Manning, who shows no real signs of slowing down at the age of 33. Manning was a little slow out of the box last year following offseason knee surgery, but was his typical terrific self down the stretch despite receiving little help in the running game. Should something happen to Manning - which it hasn't since he broke into the league in 1998 - Jim Sorgi (178 passing yards) will be his replacement. Sorgi, who was limited by a hamstring injury during training camp, is still an unknown quantity going to his fifth year in the league. If the Colts keep three quarterbacks, sixth-round draft pick Curtis Painter (Purdue) will get a chance to learn from the best.

RB: Though the Colts have long believed Joseph Addai (544 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 7 TD) to be among the elite rushers in the league, the team just couldn't go on ignoring his increasing susceptibility to injury. Addai missed four games last year, was hampered by injury problems in several others, and was a major factor in the team slipping to near the bottom of the league rushing chart. So Indianapolis used its first-round draft choice on UConn rusher Donald Brown, an intriguing talent who will at the very least take some of the pressure off Addai. Holdovers Mike Hart and Chad Simpson (45 rushing yards, 1 TD) are battling for the third running back job. The former Michigan star Hart definitely has an advantage in name recognition, but Simpson may be more useful due to his abilities on special teams. The Colts rarely use a fullback but Gijon Robinson (19 receptions) can play the role in short-yardage or goal-line sets.

WR/TE: Unless they re-sign him at the 11th hour, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison is gone after 13 years as a Colt. Harrison's production declined in recent years due to injury, but there's no telling how his lead-by-example presence will be missed in the locker room. Luckily, the Colts still possess one of the top receiving talents in the league in Reggie Wayne (82 receptions, 6 TD), and former first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez (57 receptions, 4 TD) looks to be ready for a more substantial role as well. Wayne reeled off his fifth-straight 1,000-yard season a year ago. Beyond those two, though, there is not a lot of name talent. Second-year man Pierre Garcon (4 receptions), a sixth-round pick in 2008, is a candidate for the third receiver role along with fourth-round rookie Austin Collie (Brigham Young) and practice squad holdovers Taj Smith and Sam Giguere. With Harrison gone, tight end Dallas Clark's (77 receptions, 6 TD) role will take on increased significance. Robinson will appear in two-tight end sets, and holdovers Tom Santi (10 receptions, 1 TD) and Jacob Tamme (3 receptions) could be fighting one another for the third job.

OL: The Colts battled injuries and inconsistency up front throughout last season, with eight different o-linemen receiving starting assignments but only right tackle Ryan Diem playing in all 16 games at the same position. The bright side of that scenario is that a number of youngsters - including rookies Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, and Steve Justice - got a chance to play meaningful minutes. Pollak is penciled in as the starter at guard next to Diem, while Justice figures to stick as the backup to veteran center Jeff Saturday. On the left side, Charlie Johnson appears likely to beat out disappointing former second-round pick Tony Ugoh for left tackle duties, and Ryan Lilja will play ahead of Richard if he can recover from a knee injury that sidelined him for the entire 2008 season.

DL: Indianapolis has struggled for years to find the right combination of players at defensive tackle, and more often than not, the situation has been a factor in the team's poor play against the run. The club's concessions to improving this area included bringing back Ed Johnson (7 tackles), a 16-game starter in 2007 who was cut from the team following a marijuana charge last September, and using early draft choices on space-eaters Fili Moala (2nd Round, USC) and Terrance Taylor (4th Round, Michigan). Part-time 2008 starters Antonio Johnson (13 tackles) and Eric Foster (34 tackles) should also be part of the DT rotation, but fellow holdover Daniel Muir (3 tackles) could be on the outside looking in. The defensive end group looks good on paper, with Freeney (28 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (48 tackles, 11.5 sacks) returning to rush the passer and Raheem Brock (30 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Keyunta Dawson (42 tackles) doing more of their work against the run. Brock was limited in training camp by a broken hand, but should be available for the regular season.

LB: The team's biggest change under Coyer could be among the linebacking group, where Gary Brackett (99 tackles) is virtually assured of a spot in the middle but the other jobs are up for grabs. Clint Session (94 tackles) has been moved from the strong to the weak side, and the oft-injured Tyjuan Hagler (27 tackles) will have to beat out 2008 reserve Phillip Wheeler (14 tackles) for Session's old spot. On the weak side, formerly the domain of Freddy Keiaho (105 tackles), Session could face a challenge from second-year man and special teams ace Jordan Senn (19 tackles). Keiaho is back with the team he led in tackles last season but is not seen as a perfect fit for Coyer's scheme and was listed with the third-team on the Colts' training camp depth chart.

DB: The Colts probably figured on being minus the services of Sanders during the entire preseason, as the hard-hitting Pro Bowl strong safety was coming off of offseason knee surgery. What they didn't count on were injuries to the other starting safety, Antoine Bethea (hand) and starting cornerback Kelvin Hayden (hamstring), who is expected to miss the remainder of the preseason as well. Also something of a question mark is cornerback Marlin Jackson (47 tackles), who missed the final nine games of last season and is recovering from knee surgery in his own right. Clearly, depth is going to be an issue among this group. Holdovers Melvin Bullitt (72 tackles, 4 INT) and Matt Giordano (23 tackles) figure to play prominent roles at safety at some point during this season, and Tim Jennings (66 tackles, 2 INT), Dante Hughes (20 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie Jerraud Powers (3rd Round, Auburn) had better be ready at cornerback.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Colts waved goodbye to longtime punter Hunter Smith in the offseason, replacing him with seventh-round draft pick Pat McAfee (West Virginia), the only punter the team brought to camp. Kicker Adam Vinatieri (20-25 FG) was limited during training camp due to nagging injuries, but is expected to be more than ready when the games count. The battle to return kicks should be interesting. T.J. Rushing is back after missing all of 2008 due to injury, but the team might not be able to afford keeping him if he can't play a role at cornerback. Wideout Pierre Garcon (21.6 kickoff return avg.) and running back Chad Simpson (22.9 kickoff return avg.) would appear to be among the team's options if they don't hold on to Rushing. Veteran long- snapper Justin Snow returns to his normal role.

PROGNOSIS: When a team wins 12 games and brings back nearly the same roster that helped them do it, it's a natural to expect the winning to continue. Remember too, that the last organization Tony Dungy left won a Super Bowl the following year with the roster he helped to assemble. But these Colts don't look nearly as hungry as those Buccaneers, and there's reason to believe that Dungy's absence could have a profoundly negative effect on this club. Also, Indianapolis got a ton of breaks that helped them win close games last season, and at some point, their luck is not going to be nearly as favorable. Look for the Colts to be competitive every week and to finish no worse than 8-8, but while going through a transition and playing a demanding schedule. don't be surprised to see them fall from their perch of the AFC elite.