Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The questions are obvious.
Can Rachel Alexandra become the first filly to win the Preakness since 1924? Will Mine That Bird duplicate his mind-blowing Derby stretch run to nab the Triple Crown's middle jewel? Or, will some other horse leave both high-profile competitors in the dust?
The betting odds favor Rachel Alexandra, but her actual chances of winning are much lower due to an abundance of factors.
First, she will be forced to face a quick turnaround (15 days) after a taxing Kentucky Oaks, a race in which she earned the best figure of her career. Second, the level of competition has been raised and the likelihood of her knocking off the colts (and geldings) from post 13 is very low. Third, instead of running down the likes of Gabby's Golden Gal and other low-level three- year-old fillies, she will have to deal with the early speed of Big Drama and then the next contingent of Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire and Papa Clem. Fourth, she will be asked to run a distance she has never seen before.
Mine That Bird is also a horse to pass on. He benefited from an off-track at Churchill Downs, along with an unbelievable ride by Calvin Borel, and the gelding will not have those conditions in his favor this time around (unless the isolated thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon become a deluge of rain).
There are 11 other horses in the race. A few, namely Luv Gov, Flying Private and Tone It Down, have little realistic chance of finishing first, second or third. Three other colts, Terrain, Take the Points and General Quarters, will be up against it, but could surprise at generous odds.
(As a side note, Take the Points' trainer, Todd Pletcher, who is now 0-24 in the Kentucky Derby, surprisingly has raced only three horses in the Preakness and just two since '00.)
That narrows the probable list of winners down to five, four of which ran in the Kentucky Derby. And just a reminder, seven of the last eight, and 23 of the previous 25 Preakness champions made their prior start in the Derby.
Big Drama is the only one on the list of five that didn't race at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. His last effort came in the Swale Stakes, on the Florida Derby undercard at Gulfstream Park on March 28. He broke the seven-furlong track record (1:20 4/5) that day, but was disqualified to second for bumping This Ones for Phil twice through the stretch.
The loss in the Swale, via stewards' inquiry, was Big Drama's first defeat since running third in his debut last July. He had reeled off five straight victories, two around two turns at 1 1/16-miles. Trainer David Fawkes loves the way Big Drama is coming into the race, and he expects his horse to give the field a run for the money.
Still, one can't discount the fact that the Florida-bred has raced just once (a seven-furlong sprint) since early December. He will also have to deal with the presence of Rachel Alexandra on the front end, and even if he puts the filly away, there will be a cavalry charge that consists of Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem and Musket Man all waiting to pounce as the field hits the far turn.
The only way Big Drama could run first or second is if the horses from the outside posts prevent Rachel Alexandra (post 13) from getting decent positioning near the front end in the early going. If that happens, look for Big Drama to skim the rail from post one, maintain moderate fractions throughout, and hold off all challengers through the stretch.
If Rachel is pushed early to keep up with the speedy colt, then it's doubtful either of the two will be there in the end.
THREE OF THE FINAL FOUR
On the surface, it looked as if Papa Clem ran a huge race in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth after getting bumped near the wire. If that were any other race, Pioneerof the Nile would have been disqualified.
However, upon further review, the son of Smart Strike received the perfect trip for much of the race as he sat right off the early lead (on the golden rail or in the two-path) until the top of the stretch when jockey Rafael Bejerano swung him out to challenge Pioneerof the Nile.
One thing we learned from the Kentucky Derby is that Papa Clem's poor effort in the Louisiana Derby probably had more to do with the inconvenient travel problems he encountered getting to "Bayou Country" than with the sloppy track conditions at Fair Grounds. Cross a line through that race, and the colt has done nothing wrong since breaking his maiden in late December.
Papa Clem ran a very credible race at Churchill Downs and showed he definitely belongs with this group. The Gary Stute-trained colt has now finished second to Pioneerof the Nile twice, beaten one-half length in the Robert B. Lewis, and then a nose in the Kentucky Derby. What's interesting about that is the lack of respect given to Papa Clem.
Pioneerof the Nile will most likely be the second choice in the Preakness, much lower than his 5-1 morning line odds, while Papa Clem is 12-1 on the morning line and will be no lower than sixth choice in the wagering.
Speaking of Pioneerof the Nile, he also had a fairly easy ride in the Derby. Garrett Gomez placed him in the three-path for the majority of the race, about two lengths off the lead. After collaring the front-runners at the top of the stretch, it appeared he would then roll to victory. Unfortunately, Gomez did not expect Mine That Bird to come up the rail and obliterate the field.
For the second straight race, Pioneerof the Nile weaved all over the racetrack through the lane, and should have been taken down for interfering with Papa Clem. The Preakness is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, but the Santa Anita Derby was only nine furlongs and the colt did not respond well to the right and left-handed whips down the stretch in that race either.
Pioneerof the Nile is a horse many thought would be a stone closer after his dramatic come-from-behind win in the Robert B. Lewis. However, he's been a true stalker in his three subsequent races. Moreover, did anyone expect him to be only two lengths off the lead in the Derby after a first quarter in 22 4/5, or for the son of Empire Maker to run a half-mile in 47 3/5, almost a full second faster than he had in any of his prior three starts?
The Bob Baffert-trained colt does not have to improve much to win, but what happens if a couple of others move forward? If that happens, he might be left in their wake.
Friesan Fire is one of those colts with a right to improve off his last effort. He was abused out of the gate in the Derby, getting stepped on by Papa Clem, then was bounced around like a pinball right after the break.
Jockey Gabriel Saez placed him in the worst part of the track, the five-path, throughout the entire run down the backstretch, and the colt had nothing left in the end, finishing next to last in the 19-horse field.
Many handicappers were concerned about Friesan Fire's long seven-week layoff prior to the first Saturday in May. Now that he has a race under his belt, his chances for success in the Preakness are much greater. In addition, his "gallop-out" from his last workout was faster than the one prior to the Derby, so look for major improvement from the Larry Jones-trained colt.
THE EXPECTED WINNER
Of the three colts that finished in the blanket photo behind Mine That Bird, only one put forth maximum effort. Pioneerof the Nile stayed in the same path the entire race except inside the final furlong and Papa Clem moved out of the two-path only at the top of the lane. It wasn't that way for Musket Man. The son of Yonaguska had to work for his third-place finish.
Breaking from post two, he was forced to show more speed than usual just to acquire decent positioning through the stretch the first time. Then, after sitting on the rail down the backside, jockey Eibar Coa decided to move him four-wide approaching the far turn and then seven-wide into the homestretch.
Musket Man should garner a much better trip this time around, as he'll be able to sit behind the expected pacesetters (Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra) and stalkers (Take the Points, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem and Friesan Fire), and not use as much early energy as he had to in the Derby.
Trainer Derek Ryan is extremely confident, especially after his colt worked four-furlongs in 46 3/5 at Monmouth Park earlier in the week. What's more, the last two third-place Derby finishers to run in the Preakness both won - Curlin and Afleet Alex.
THE WAGERS
For those with a $100 bankroll, bet $30 to win on Musket Man, and throw in $10 exactas with Musket Man on top of Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem and Big Drama and $5 exactas with those four horses on top of Musket Man.
With the remaining $10, put $5 each on Musket Man over two longshots - Take the Points and Terrain - in exacta plays.
