Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - With the 2009 Draft growing smaller in the rear view mirror, and pre-training camp depth charts beginning to take shape, it's time to assess teams' early prospects for the upcoming season (2008 records in parentheses):
1 - Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
While it's both fashionable and logical to identify the previous year's Super Bowl Champion as the "team to beat" when predictions are made for the following campaign, for the Steelers, there's more to it than that. With the exception of cornerback Bryant McFadden and inside linebacker Larry Foote, everyone will be back for the team's dominant defense. Offensively, Pittsburgh didn't upgrade the tackle position, but will have a better chance to get the running game going with 2008 first-rounder Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury to help out Willie Parker. If the offense begins moving with greater efficiency, look out - this team could be one of the best in franchise history.
2 - New England Patriots (11-5)
Contrary to popular belief at the time of his injury, the Patriots didn't crumble with Tom Brady out of the lineup last year. They won 11 games - the most for a non-playoff team in more than 20 seasons, with a guy taking snaps who hadn't played meaningful football since high school. Well, Matt Cassel is gone, but Brady is expected back and healthy to pilot a ship that is still stocked full of talent and blessed with the best group of coaches in the NFL. Brady might have to shake off some rust early, but when was the last time Bill Belichick failed to have a team prepared?
3 - New York Giants (12-4)
Though they won 12 games and a division title in a very strong NFC East in 2008, The Giants' season is destined to be remembered as the one ultimately ruined by Plaxico Burress' self-inflicted gunshot wound. But the G-Men were a very good team right up until their playoff loss to Philadelphia, and though no one of Burress' quality is currently around to serve as a target for Eli Manning, there was otherwise very little meaningful turnover for Tom Coughlin's club. If anything, significant additions to the defensive front seven (DTs Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard, LBs Michael Boley and Clint Sintim, plus the return of Osi Umenyiora) make the Giants a tougher, more balanced team all-around.
4 - Tennessee Titans (13-3)
The Titans had the NFL's best record in 2008 and finally seized the division from the grip of the Colts, but questions linger about whether the team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2009. The loss of Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) in free agency is concerning, but the bigger elephant in the room relates to 36-year-old quarterback Kerry Collins, who was good enough but rarely great in '08. There is still a ton of talent on this club, but can the offense be good enough to run the AFC South gauntlet again? We shall see.
5 - Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Not to diminish the unprecedented achievements recorded by the Cardinals last season, but had it not been for the putrid state of the NFC West, Arizona would have been just another 9-7 team watching the playoffs on TV like the Cowboys, Jets, Bears and Bucs. Still, you get a sense that Arizona is a team on the rise after coming ever so close to a Super Bowl crown last year, and the fact that Anquan Boldin looks like he'll be sticking around along with Kurt Warner helps to enhance that feeling. With the confidence garnered by last season's postseason run offering a boost, this should be a double-digit- win team at the very least.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1)
The Eagles don't have a great success rate when it comes to meeting high expectations (see: 2008 NFC Championship), though on paper, Andy Reid's club should have top-tier talent in 2009. An offense that was already very good might now possess the best tackle tandem in the league (Jason Peters, Stacy Andrews), and to a lesser extent offensive pieces like Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Leonard Weaver will help. The big questions for the Birds center around their ability to keep Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook healthy, and the defense's ability to come together in year one A.D. (after Dawkins).
7 - Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Are the Colts the biggest house of cards in the NFL? A team that needed multiple instances of late-game heroics to get to 12-4 last season is now going through a coaching transition, with Tony Dungy replaced by Jim Caldwell, a failed former college head man. (Longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore and o-line coach Howard Mudd are also gone from the fold.) The Colts didn't run the ball well in 2008, didn't often play great defense, and have lost Marvin Harrison from the one aspect of the team that can always be relied upon...the passing game. You can't count Indy out as long as Peyton Manning is pulling the trigger, but in a crowded AFC South, the Colts are going to have to work hard to swim against the tide.
8 - Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Of the teams that had terrific and unexpected success with first-year head coaches last season (Baltimore and Miami being the others), the Falcons appear best positioned to avoid a sophomore slump. The offense should take a giant leap thanks to the trade for Tony Gonzalez and the fact that Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White will be in their second year in the system. It's hard to imagine the defense taking a major step back either, especially since the team signed Mike Peterson to play middle linebacker and used their first five draft choices on that side of the ball.
9 - Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
John Harbaugh won over the Baltimore faithful immediately in 2008, seemingly pushing all of the right buttons in his first year on the job and lucking out in a major way when Joe Flacco arrived ahead of schedule. Expectations will be high for the Ravens in '09, though the team didn't get Flacco much help at the other skill positions and the defense lost key '08 starters such as linebacker Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard. The biggest problem for Baltimore, however, could be the fact that they are blocked by a still-strong Pittsburgh team in the AFC North.
10 - Carolina Panthers (12-4)
The Panthers aren't exactly a newcomer in the always topsy-turvy NFC South, so they know repeating as division champs (which has never happened in the division's seven-year history) is hardly a formality. Carolina is still talented and should come in hungry following their playoff disaster against Arizona last year, but like the Colts, they have the look of a team that is treading water as opposed to building toward anything substantial.
11 - San Diego Chargers (8-8)
For their next act, the notoriously slow-starting Chargers will see if they can make it to December before they have to wake up and seize the division. Once again, Norv Turner's club won't have a great deal of motivation to get off to a hot start, since they're still clearly the most talented team in arguably the NFL's worst division. Shawne Merriman's return from a knee injury and the selection of Larry English in the Draft could make this team a frightening pass-rushing unit again, and that's a great place to start.
12 - Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Forget the Brett Favre drama for a second, because with or without Favre, this is the most talented team in the NFC North. The defense should again be very good, depending on how much we see of guys like Pat and Kevin Williams (pending suspensions), and the offense figures to be improved with Percy Harvin on the field and either Favre or the unspectacular but capable Sage Rosenfels pulling the trigger. Even Brad Childress shouldn't be able to screw this thing up.
13 - Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
It will be a banner year for America's Team thanks to the opening of the lavish (or is that garish?) Cowboys Stadium, but whether the team itself plays up to the standard of the billion dollar facility remains to be seen. Tony Romo and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett should be a lot more relaxed without Terrell Owens around, though no one is quite sure whether Roy Williams can play like a No. 1 receiver when the lights are brightest. Defensively, the club lost a lot of contributors (Chris Canty, Zach Thomas, Anthony Henry, the other Roy Williams), and the margin for error will be mighty slim in the ultra-talented NFC East.
14 - Miami Dolphins (11-5)
To recap, Bill Parcells' last reclamation project occurred in Dallas, where the Cowboys were a 10-6 playoff team in his first year and never posted a better record thereafter. In order to avoid following that same trajectory, the Parcells-run Dolphins desperately need the defense to take a step forward, and have to settle on an offensive direction. With no bona fide No. 1 quarterback, running back, or wide receiver at the moment, do the Dolphins really look like a team that can hold off Tom Brady and the Patriots?
15 - New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Although Sean Payton has to be feeling some of the heat following two straight seasons of perceived Saints underachieving, the real pressure in 2009 will be on first-year New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams has to work some magic with a unit that has cost the team a number of games the past two seasons, one that added pieces like defensive backs Darren Sharper, Malcolm Jenkins, Jabari Greer, tackle Rod Coleman and end Paul Spicer to the mix. The offense will be potent enough to keep New Orleans in games. Will the defense be good enough to win them?
16 - Chicago Bears (9-7)
Memo to Bears fans expecting to be back in the playoffs come January: Jay Cutler hasn't led a team to the postseason since he won the Indiana state tournament with Heritage Hills High School in 2001. Now, Cutler has a real chance to break that embargo in his first year in a Chicago uniform, but he is indeed going to have to be great, because he inherits possibly the weakest corps of wide receivers in the NFL, and the defense (to be coordinated by Lovie Smith this year) appears to be in decline.
17 - Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
If you're making a short list of potential rags-to-riches stories in the NFL this season, the Seahawks should be at or near the top. The improved health of Matt Hasselbeck and acquisition of wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh should have the offense clicking again, and new defensive faces like LB Aaron Curry and DTs Cory Redding and Colin Cole will add major stability to the front seven. The presence of Jim Mora as head coach will offer some fresh energy and, let's face it, the NFC West is not the NFC East in terms of depth. Beware of this team.
18 - Green Bay Packers (6-10)
From the "file under: crazy" department, if Matthew Stafford (Lions), Sage Rosenfels or Brett Favre (Vikings), and Jay Cutler (Bears) are their respective teams' opening day quarterbacks in 2009, the Packers' Aaron Rodgers will become the dean of NFC North signal-callers. Rodgers was pretty good last year, and should make a major leap in year two as a starter, though the success of his team hinges on the other side of the ball. The Packers are switching to a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Dom Capers, and are going to need rookies like DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews to hit the ground running in order for the unit to develop. Seems like a tall order at the moment.
19 - Houston Texans (8-8)
Gary Kubiak's situation in 2009 is nearly identical to that which his predecessor, Dom Capers, faced back in 2005. That year, Houston had high expectations coming off an encouraging finish only to plumb the depths of 2-14. Capers was fired, and if the Texans' mirror that performance in 2009, Kubiak will be gone as well. The offense looks to be in pretty good shape, but the big question will be whether defensive additions like linebackers Brian Cushing and Cato June, and defensive end Antonio Smith can add some life to a shaky defense.
20 - Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
The Jaguars were undoubtedly the most surprising last-place team in the league last season, as erratic play and terrible chemistry converged at the wrong time in a very good division. Things look to be on the upswing, as the addition of wideout Torry Holt and three starting-caliber offensive tackles (Tra Thomas, rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton) will help the offense move. There are bigger question on defense, where Jack Del Rio will have to pray that young players can step into voids left by departed former mainstays like Mike Peterson and Paul Spicer.
21 - Washington Redskins (8-8)
The Redskins are becoming the Baltimore Orioles of the late 90's. They spend too much money on would-be superstars like Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall, entertain the notion of changing quarterbacks and coaches too freely, and are just talented and competitive enough to raise expectations in a division that is ultimately too difficult for them to win. Daniel Snyder should do what Peter Angelos eventually had to: build via the draft, develop young talent, be patient with coaches and management, and stop throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall in the hopes that something sticks.
22 - New York Jets (9-7)
The Jets found out what a quarterback-driven league the NFL is, both during their 8-3 start (when Brett Favre was great), and during their dismal final five games (when he was horrendous). So, the Jets mortgaged much of their Draft to select promising former USC signal-caller Mark Sanchez, who figures to be thrown into the fire early in Rex Ryan's first year. To whom will he throw? As it stands now, no one great. The running game and defense should both be good enough to ensure that Gang Green is competitive, but how far can this team really go with a shaky passing game?
23 - Denver Broncos (8-8)
New Broncos coach Josh McDaniels obviously believes he's a genius. Now, the rest of the world will find out whether McDaniels is correct. The youthful new head coach presided over the larger roster overhaul in the NFL this offseason, emphasizing "system" players over talent and taking the controversial step of alienating, then dealing, Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler. McDaniels is going to need his system and its players to get up to speed quickly, though if either Kyle Orton or Chris Simms flops while Cutler succeeds in Chicago, no one in Denver is going to care that the Broncos can stop the run a little better.
24 - San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
The 49ers played well under head coach Mike Singletary over the second half of last season and, to their credit, kept most of their core intact. The team's dalliance with Kurt Warner was proof that they're not exactly sold on Shaun Hill under center, but with Warner re-upping with Arizona and the Niners failing to draft a quarterback before the fifth-round (Nate Davis), it's pretty clear that Hill's going to be the guy. Having Michael Crabtree to throw to should help. Overall, the talent here doesn't scream "playoffs," but if Singletary gets some luck and taps into the chemistry he found by the Bay last season, the Niners could take advantage and win some games in a weak division.
25 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
It was justice that the Bucs exiled Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen after the team imploded in the final month of 2008, but pretty much nothing Tampa has done since then has made any sense. To recap, the Bucs hired a head coach (Raheem Morris) and GM (Mark Dominik) without any meaningful experience, got rid of a bunch of veteran players without necessarily replacing them with anyone better, paid a hefty price to trade for an oft-injured, head case of a tight end (Kellen Winslow), and reached for a project quarterback in the first round (Josh Freeman) weeks after signing the best free agent QB on the market (Byron Leftwich) and telling incumbent Luke McCown that he'd have a shot at the starting job as well. Good luck with all that.
26 - Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Here's the thing about left tackles: they might not get a lot of glory, but when you don't have a good one, you sure know it. And the Bills are going to know it soon, because they traded Jason Peters to the Eagles without finding a real replacement for him as Trent Edwards' personal protector. Buffalo has some talent on both sides of the ball, and the Terrell Owens experiment will probably work because Owens is on a one-year deal and his career is at stake if he acts up, but Edwards might get killed and Marshawn Lynch (who is appealing a three-game suspension to start the season) is going to find running room scarce while playing behind a fairly dismal o-line.
27 - Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)
With the defense coming together during the late states of 2008, Carson Palmer now healthy (presumably), and fresh off one of the best drafts (on paper) that the NFL saw in 2009, Bengals fans are as excited as Bengals fans will allow themselves to get. If things go well, this is a team that could get to December with a chance to return to the playoffs. But if Palmer gets hurt again, Cedric Benson turns back into the old Cedric Benson, rookie Andre Smith fails to grow up quickly at the left tackle position, or Chad Ochocinco disrupts team unity by re-introducing his patented spoiled baby routine, any high hopes Marvin Lewis' team has could fade away quickly.
28 - Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
Like division mates the Broncos, the Chiefs turned to a Bill Belichick disciple, new GM Scott Pioli, to blow up the team. And though Kansas City was mostly competitive during a 2008 season in which they lost a lot of close games, this team needed some blowing up. Matt Cassel isn't going to be as successful without Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to (especially now that Tony Gonzalez is a Falcon), but should stabilize things somewhat within new head coach Todd Haley's offense. The real key to K.C.'s success, however, will come on defense, where crusty veterans like Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel are going to have to combine with youngsters such as Tyson Jackson to make an immediate impact.
29 - Oakland Raiders (5-11)
The Raiders' selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey ahead of Michael Crabtree had the NFL nation laughing at Oakland once again, though for a few months there, it really looked like the Silver and Black were headed in the right direction. It all started with a very professional-looking victory in Tampa Bay to end the season, and continued when Al Davis did the pragmatic thing and removed the interim tag from head coach Tom Cable, who did a nice job against long odds last year. But recent history suggests that the good times were an aberration, and the team's bizarre draft approach would seem to confirm that fact.
30 - Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Maybe the new Cleveland braintrust of Eric Mangini and GM George Kokinis is fooling us all, but on the surface, it sure looks like the Browns are as big a mess as they've been since coming back to the league in 1999. The roster underwent a great deal of offseason turnover, which was not unexpected or unwarranted, but it now seems that the Browns are chock full of Jets castoffs, with a sprinkling of star holdovers who don't want to be there (Braylon Edwards, Shaun Rogers). Meanwhile, no one seems to know whether Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, or even Brett Ratliff is going to be the first starting QB of the Mangini era. Yes, the Steelers and Ravens have to be quaking in their collective boots.
31 - St. Louis Rams (2-14)
The good news is that after two seasons and only five wins, the Rams have probably found rock-bottom. The bad news is that the fix is going to be very slow in taking shape, especially by NFL standards. Steve Spagnuolo is a good coach who will undoubtedly breathe some life into the defense, but he won't have much more talent to work with on that side of the ball than did his predecessor Jim Haslett (another renowned defensive mind). On offense, Torry Holt is gone as Marc Bulger's top weapon and the line still isn't very good, despite the selection of left tackle Jason Smith with the No. 2 overall pick last month. Ultimately, this is probably a team that is going to look much better in the second half of the season than the first, with an eye toward contending in 2010.
32 - Detroit Lions (0-16)
With all of the new faces both on the roster and Jim Schwartz's coaching staff, this looks like an expansion team. The good news in that respect is that no expansion team has ever gone 0-16, and a team that took almost an identical personnel approach to the one the Lions are undertaking - the 2008 Dolphins - went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won their division. Now, we're not predicting that will happen for Detroit, but we also don't think that 5-to-7 wins are out of the question given the amount of proven veterans and high- level youngsters that have been brought in to right this ship. It might be hard for Lions fans to believe, but things are finally moving in the right direction in the Motor City.
