Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The 135th Kentucky Derby is approximately one week away, and almost all the participants are settled in the Bluegrass State. The only three unaccounted for are Mr. Hot Stuff, Colonel John's full brother, and the top two finishers of the Florida Derby: Quality Road and Dunkirk.

Mr. Hot Stuff is expected to arrive on Monday, while Dunkirk will move north from Florida on Tuesday. Quality Road was supposed to turn up on the same day as his Gulfstream Park rival, but everything is on hold due to a recently discovered second quarter crack.

The new crack on his right front foot is not as severe as the one found on his right hind foot in the winner's circle of the Florida Derby. However, with the Kentucky Derby less than 10 days away, any injury is serious enough to warrant concern.

If Quality Road cannot put in his final workout by Monday, then trainer Jimmy Jerkens will not send him to Churchill Downs. If that's the case, the race becomes a wide-open affair, with at least half the field sporting a decent chance for victory. And even if he does run, how confident can his supporters be after two quarter cracks just four weeks before the biggest race of his life?

TWENTY HORSES - THREE GROUPS

Every year, the 20-horse field can be placed into three distinct groupings: A) the main contenders, B) the colts that might not win but can't be eliminated in the exotics, and C) the longshots with a near-zero chance of victory, as well as a limited chance at filling out the trifecta and superfecta.

The last of the three-letter choices will be examined in part one of this three-part series.

There is still some debate whether or not trainer Todd Pletcher and owner WinStar Farm will send Advice to the Derby after the colt won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 18. The final decision will be made following a Monday morning workout at Churchill Downs.

If Advice does indeed reach the starting gate it's highly doubtful he'll be a force to be reckoned with. The son of Chapel Royal has tons of ability as witnessed by last weekend's race, but he failed to fire in his lone start on traditional dirt, finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Sunland Derby in late March.

It's interesting to note that WinStar Farm already has a pair of Derby entrants in Hold Me Back and Mr. Hot Stuff, so it's entirely plausible that both owner and trainer could decide to withdraw Advice from the race in order to grant Join in the Dance a spot in the party.

It just so happens that Pletcher also trains Join in the Dance, a front- running colt that should ensure a faster early pace, beneficial in assisting not only his main threat in Dunkirk, but WinStar Farm's come-from-behind duo as well. (All this could be moot if Quality Road is unable to run, thereby allowing both Advice and Join in the Dance to enter into the field.)

If Join in the Dance makes it into the Derby, he's a solid bet to finish last for two reasons. First, he's likely to be used as a sacrificial lamb to help speed up the early fractions. Second, and perhaps more importantly, a Todd Pletcher-trained horse has finished last three straight years and five times this decade, along with a pair of next-to-last place finishes in '04 and '05.

The only other colt that could challenge him for last place is Mine That Bird.

The three-year-old gelding was not even considered a Derby possibility, as his two preps this year came in ungraded races at Sunland Park. The son of Birdstone ran second in the Borderland Derby before finishing fourth in the Sunland Derby, a length and three-quarters ahead of Advice.

Calvin Borel picks up the mount after two questionable rides from Casey Lambert in the aforementioned races. Mine That Bird has the speed to pressure the early pace down the backstretch but with Borel in the saddle, one wonders if the '07 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey will try to throttle the gelding's speed in order for a faster finish.

Mine That Bird ended 2008 with a last-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and there's nothing to suggest improvement will come against a much tougher field.

FOUR MORE HORSES THAT WON'T FIRE

Four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas is back after a four- year layoff. The Hall of Fame horseman sent out Going Wild to finish 18th in the '05 Derby at odds of 59-1, and his Flying Private has a very good chance of duplicating both numbers in this year's running.

The Kentucky-bred has 10 career starts, more than any horse in the field except General Quarters. This will be his seventh race in 2009 alone, an unheard of amount in this day and age.

After a pair of seconds in the Mountain Valley Stakes at six furlongs and the Lane's End at 1 1/8-miles, the son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus ran fifth to Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby. Over the last 25 years, there has not been a single horse to win the Run for the Roses while finishing lower than fourth in his prior race. (Denis of Cork came close last year with a third to Big Brown after running fifth in the Illinois Derby.)

Flying Private did have a troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby. He was forced wide around the first turn by Papa Clem and then was pulled back approaching the far turn, losing tons of ground. Still, it would be a major upset if he were to win with just a maiden victory under his belt.

Trainer Eoin Harty has called his late-running colt Mr. Hot Stuff a "doofus" and "Colonel John on meth." The reason for the comparison to last year's Santa Anita Derby winner is quite obvious as they are full brothers. Nevertheless, until Mr. Hot Stuff wins another race, it's doubtful he'll be mentioned in the same breath as his more renowned sibling.

There's no doubt the colt has talent, but immature horses do not win the Kentucky Derby. Mr. Hot Stuff needed five tries to break his maiden and when he crossed the wire first on February 1, many west coast racing fans expected more of the same in the weeks to come.

Those dreams ended fast when The Pamplemousse soundly defeated him in the Sham Stakes by almost eight lengths. He failed to improve in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing third once again, completing his nine furlongs in the same exact time of 1:49 2/5 seconds.

Mr. Hot Stuff could improve come the summer and fall, but a victory on the first Saturday in May is almost impossible.

Trainer Kelly Breen is lucky West Side Bernie is even able to race in the Kentucky Derby. About a week after his gallant second-place finish in the Wood Memorial, the son of Bernstein suffered from a bout of colic, which is abdominal pain in equine terms. The horse is currently healthy but even if he had a good bill of health he would not be a major contender.

West Side Bernie's top efforts have come on dirt but he's too slow to make a dent in this one. In addition, this will be his third race in six weeks so look for him to regress after the solid second to I Want Revenge in the Wood.

Win Willy is another horse with a limited chance for success on May 2. The Monarchos colt came from out-of-the-clouds at 56-1 to win the Grade II Rebel Stakes in mid-March, pulling away from Old Fashioned by 2 1/4-lengths at the wire. Still, he failed to make it two straight after running fourth in the Arkansas Derby at odds of 4-1. It will take a Herculean effort to win on the first Saturday in May, as this Derby field is a million times stronger than the horses he faced in Arkansas.

THE FINAL TWO OUTSIDERS

Summer Bird comes into the race with just three lifetime starts, all at Oaklawn Park and all at the age of three. But unlike Dunkirk, who first raced on January 24, Summer Bird began his career on March 1. It would take almost a miracle for the son of Birdstone to win the Derby in his fourth start in 63 days.

General Quarters is getting a lot of publicity due to his victories in the Sam F. Davis and Blue Grass Stakes. Nonetheless, he "bounced" off the first victory by running fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby and will do so again after his triumph at Keeneland.

The gray colt has sat very close to the pace in all three of his wins and if he employs that strategy in the Derby, he'll be eaten alive by far superior horses. Remember, he's lost more races (eight) than anyone in the field except Flying Private.