Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Ask 100 racing fans what the number one Derby prep this year was and at least 65 will answer the Wood Memorial. There's no doubt I Want Revenge wowed the public with his troubled trip victory, running his final three furlongs in 36 2/5.

The other two big-time races garnering the rest of the votes would be the Florida Derby and the Robert B. Lewis. Quality Road held off the challenge from Dunkirk in the former while Pioneerof the Nile closed like a bandit to nail Papa Clem and I Want Revenge in the latter.

A lot has been made of synthetic surfaces all over the country this spring but not many folks realize the major differences between the various tracks that feature "true" dirt. Gulfstream Park is vastly different from Tampa Bay Downs, which plays nothing like Churchill Downs and so on and so on. Some tracks favor speed while others give closers an extra advantage.

With the Kentucky Derby approximately two weeks away, it's time to begin separating the contenders from the pretenders. The best way to do this is by watching replays of all the prep races from last December through April to see which colts have improved as the year has progressed.

Another important tool is saving and analyzing all the to result charts to get a glimpse of how each horse has adapted to different pace scenarios. I Want Revenge ran a very different race in the Wood Memorial than the Gotham, primarily due to the poor start, while Pioneerof the Nile has not shown the ability to rate off a slow pace in three of his last four attempts.

A lot has been written about come home times, namely the final three furlongs in a given race. This year, almost all the contenders have fared very well finishing the 1 1/8-mile races in 37 seconds flat or better.

That tidbit of information may not hold much water in the Kentucky Derby since the last furlong usually has no bearing on the outcome of the race. Almost every single Derby winner over the last 30 years has either been on the lead or just one length off the top spot with an eighth of a mile (one furlong) to go. Given that, instead of looking into each horse's final three-eighths time, it's best to move a little further back in the race and find how each colt ran from the first half-mile to the mile (the backstretch to the top of the lane).

After those numbers have been established, the next step is to check the pedigrees of all the contenders to see which one stands the best chance of getting the 10 furlongs. These two factors should help most folks separate the contenders into two or three tiers.

THE MIDDLE MOVE

I recently put together a list of all the preps and how each of the main challengers did in their key four-furlong move and the results are quite astounding. Still, it's best not to get caught up in every single number since each racetrack, as mentioned earlier, plays different from the next.

Only three horses have put forth a 48-second-or-better middle move while running their own first half-mile faster than 49 seconds. They are: Dunkirk in the Florida Derby, I Want Revenge in the Gotham and Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis and the only colt to do so at 1 1/8-miles was Dunkirk.

The Todd Pletcher-trainee, who most feel is a huge closer, actually ran faster first half-miles (47 3/5 and 48 1/5) in his two nine-furlong races than every single possible Kentucky Derby entrant other than Quality Road, Papa Clem and surprisingly, Win Willy. The Gulfstream Park surface has a lot to do with the speedy early fractions but even if a full second is added to the numbers, they are still faster than many of the contenders.

(The quick early numbers at Oaklawn Park could be attributed mostly to speedsters such as Silver City and Old Fashioned laying down obscenely fast fractions. That's why Win Willy's half-mile numbers appear more rapid than they will be at Churchill Downs, if he even runs in the Kentucky Derby.)

Quality Road is the only horse (besides Dunkirk) to hit the mile mark in a nine furlong race faster than 1:36 3/5 by running the first mile of the Florida Derby in an amazing 1:35 1/5. Once again, that's not to say he will have the lead by five or more lengths at the top of the stretch, it's just an indication of how he has been able to carry his speed a distance of ground on the speed favoring Gulfstream Park surface.

His middle move in the Florida Derby was timed at 48 1/5; not as quick as some of the other contenders, but solid enough for a horse that will be close to the pace. He ran his first half-mile that day in 47 seconds flat, a number faster than every other three-year-old on the Derby path except for Papa Clem's 46 4/5 in the Arkansas Derby. However, when one compares that colt's middle move of 49 4/5 to Quality Road's 48 1/5, it's obvious which horse will outrun the other in Kentucky, quarter crack not withstanding.

I Want Revenge ran the same 47 4/5 middle move in both the Gotham and the Wood even though he battled for the lead in the former and closed for the win in the latter. His versatility is his number one asset and there's no doubt he will be a force to contend with down the long Churchill stretch.

Friesan Fire has been all over the board in his last three races with a 48 2/5 middle half in the one-mile LeComte, followed by a very slow 50 2/5 in the Risen Star, and then a quick 47 1/5 in the Louisiana Derby. That last number came on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds so it's possible that it might not hold up on a fast surface.

Pioneerof the Nile has been as consistent as they come with three consecutive races between 47 3/5 and 48 1/5. His figures say he will be a major player in the Derby but his best race came all the way back in February in the Robert B. Lewis.

The Bob Baffert-trained colt has many supporters but two major flaws must be addressed in order for him to wear the roses. First, he must be able to handle true dirt, a surface he has yet to race on and second, the son of Empire Maker must revert back to his closing days in the Robert B. Lewis. If he can't be rated off the pace, it's doubtful he will have enough left in the tank at the finish line.

THE SECOND TIER

How has the rest of the bunch fared when compared to the top-five expected favorites?

Hold Me Back has held his own sporting two consecutive 47 3/5 middle moves in the Blue Grass and the Lane's End. The only negative is that he accomplished that feat after running his first half-mile in 50 1/5 at Keeneland and 50 flat at Turfway Park. His running style will have him at the back end of the field down the backstretch leaving it up to Kent Desormeaux to maneuver his way through traffic the final four furlongs.

Chocolate Candy could also be a factor at Churchill Downs after pulling in two solid numbers of 47 2/5 and 48 in his last two starts, both at nine furlongs. He'll be in a better striking position than Hold Me Back around the far turn and his kick seems to be a bit sharper.

Musket Man and General Quarters battled each other all winter in Florida with the former winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby, while the latter grabbed first place in the Blue Grass and Sam F. Davis.

General Quarters has the top middle figure of the pair with his 47 4/5 in the Blue Grass, but that was the only race of the four run on Polytrack. Otherwise, the two colts look dead even on paper and a notch below the major contenders.

There's not much fractional information on Regal Ransom and Desert Party since they raced in Dubai. However, when watching their replays there was a major speed bias on UAE Derby Day which Regal Ransom took full advantage of to knock off his favored rival.

Desert Party, second in that event, has not had to face much adversity in '09 with multiple trouble-free rail trips where he sat only a few lengths off the early speed. A similar easy run in two weeks is highly doubtful.

The results of all the figures show Quality Road and Dunkirk slightly ahead of I Want Revenge with Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire a little ways behind. Chocolate Candy is a longshot to definitely keep an eye on while Hold Me Back could have a lot to ground to make up prior to the stretch run.

THE LEXINGTON

Square Eddie hasn't raced since finishing second to The Pamplemousse in the San Rafael in mid-January but the Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up will run in Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

The chestnut colt doesn't need to win this race as he is already guaranteed a spot in the Derby based on his graded earnings. Given that, will trainer Doug O'Neill have him 100% fit for a huge effort or is he mostly concerned with getting the horse ready for the Kentucky Derby?

Even if Square Eddie isn't primed for victory, he still may get it based on the lack of any star power in the starting gate. Masala and Omniscient, the co- second choices, have yet to win a stakes race. Brave Victory, the fourth choice on the morning line at 8-1 is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Swale Stakes and has yet to run around two turns

Only two horses have had more lifetime starts than Parade Clown has had on Polytrack. The son of Distorted Humor sports two wins and a pair of seconds in six career performances on the synthetic surface and picks up the services of one of the hottest jockeys around in Julien Leparoux.

Parade Clown also runs with blinkers off for the first time since November and should sit a perfect trip just off the lead in this 1 1/16-mile event. He might not be good enough to knock off Square Eddie, but the price will be right.

The play: An exacta box with Parade Clown and Square Eddie.