Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager ended on Sunday with I Want Revenge overtaking Quality Road as the
betting favorite. Then on Monday, word came out that Quality Road has a quarter crack in his right hind foot, which could force him out of contention.
The news came just two days after The Pamplemousse injured his tendon sending the Sham and San Rafael winner off the Derby trail.
I'm sure Todd Pletcher would not want his prized three-year-old Dunkirk to back his way into the Kentucky Derby, but the more time that passes, the better his chances look of making it to Churchill Downs.
Injuries aside, there were still some eye-catching performances this past weekend, led by I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Sent off as the 1-2 favorite, the Gotham winner was unprepared at the start and broke a good three lengths behind the rest of the field. Jockey Joe Talamo did the smart thing by not forcing the issue. Instead, he calmly surveyed the situation and let his charge settle in last place about seven lengths off the pace.
I Want Revenge improved to the fifth spot after six furlongs were run in 1:12 1/5, meaning, after his slow first quarter of 25 4/5, the colt put forth consecutive sub-24 quarters. As the field reached the top of the stretch, he was just two lengths from the top, but stuck behind a wall of horses. Talamo never panicked while hand-riding I Want Revenge inside the final furlong. The heavy favorite then exploded through a seam to capture the race going away by a length and a half in 1:49 2/5.
Keep in mind that '08 Triple Crown participants Giant Moon and Cool Coal Man ran 1-2 in the Excelsior Stakes the race before, crossing the wire in 1:50 4/5. It's true that the internal fractions of that race were much slower than the Wood, but I Want Revenge still ran a faster final furlong than older graded stakes winners.
What makes this colt so intriguing is his versatility. In two of his last four races, he's come from off the pace, winning the Wood and falling short by a single nose to Pioneerof the Nile in the Cash Call Futurity. In between he helped set the early fractions in the Gotham one race after sitting just three lengths off the lead in a fast-paced Robert B. Lewis.
I Want Revenge is now undefeated on dirt with two unbelievable triumphs in the Wood and Gotham after reaching the winners' circle just one time in six tries on synthetics. Can he make it three straight in the Kentucky Derby?
If Quality Road is forced to miss the race, I Want Revenge's chances increase immeasurably. However, even though he strolled to victories in the two New York preps, he defeated only one horse that will move forward to Kentucky, longshot West Side Bernie. Taking it a step further, the only other Churchill- bound colt he's beaten is Chocolate Candy. Just something to remember if one wants to go in with both fists on the probable favorite.
PIONEEROF THE NILE KEEPS ON WINNING
Garrett Gomez has one tough decision ahead of him. The two-time Eclipse Award- winning jockey is the regular rider for both Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile. The latter faced a smaller field than expected in the Santa Anita Derby due to the scratches of The Pamplemousse, Z Day and Cape Truth, but rolled to another graded stakes victory.
For the second straight race, Pioneerof the Nile pulled Gomez to the front end much earlier than expected as the son of '03 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker was extremely eager in the early going.
The late May foal was chomping on the bit, reminiscent of his early move in the San Felipe. Still, it's interesting to note that he actually ran a faster first-half mile (48 2/5) when he was seven lengths back in the Robert. B. Lewis, as opposed to his 48 4/5 in the San Felipe and 48 3/5 in the Santa Anita Derby.
One aspect of this performance that can easily be criticized was his inability to maintain a straight path. Pioneerof the Nile was all over the racetrack through the stretch, looking like a colt that did not want to go the nine furlongs. The head-on shot exacerbates this point tenfold as Gomez needed at least five cracks of the whip to keep Pioneerof the Nile to task. Since he had run in a straight path his two prior wins, the fact that he failed to do so in his only nine-furlong race doesn't bode well for his chances, tackling the demanding 1 1/4-miles in Kentucky.
Chocolate Candy finished well to run second, going about seven wide at the top of the stretch. Still, Pioneerof the Nile was there for the taking, and Jerry Hollendorfer's colt came up a length short. Chocolate Candy is bred to run all day, and this was his first start since mid-February, so don't be shocked if he finishes ahead of his rival in the Derby.
MUSKET MAN MAKES IT TWO STRAIGHT
Flying well below the radar is a horse that has won two straight graded stakes among his five wins in six career starts. In most years, a colt with such a record would be single-digits in the Kentucky Derby, but this year is different with so many top-notch colts.
Musket Man grabbed the Illinois Derby by two lengths on the heels of his win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Still, his pedigree suggests 10 furlongs might be a bit out of his range, especially since it took him a full 37 seconds to finish his final three furlongs this past Saturday.
Giant Oak ran his best race since last year's Kentucky Jockey Club to finish second, five lengths ahead of His Greatness. He has enough graded earnings to pursue a trip to Kentucky but trainer Chris Block still hasn't confirmed his plans to move in that direction.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
I Want Revenge is one serious racehorse, and by far the most talented of all three-year-olds that ran this past weekend. His Wood Memorial victory was the most visually impressive prep this year, one reason why he ended the final Future Wager Pool as the 9-2 favorite after being 11-1 two days earlier.
Quality Road, who began the week as the favorite, is the second choice at 6-1 but it's unclear at this stage if he'll even run in the Derby. Friesan Fire (8-1) and Pioneerof the Nile (9-1) are the only other colts in single digits.
Dunkirk ended up the fourth choice at 11-1. If he was guaranteed a spot, there's no doubt he would have been third choice behind I Want Revenge and Quality Road. However, as it stands today, he's tied for 20th on the graded earnings list with Charitable Man, who makes his '09 debut in this Saturday's Blue Grass.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10
Jimmy Jerkens has not yet ruled out running Quality Road in the Kentucky Derby, but this has to be a difficult setback to overcome. Big Brown endured one of his many quarter cracks two weeks prior to the Belmont Stakes, which no doubt played a factor in his poor performance.
All cracks are different and Jerkens has the benefit (if there is one) of time, as the Derby is still a long way away. Nevertheless, it's not the ideal position to be in with arguably the best three-year-old in the country.
Last week's Top 10 is now on shaky ground as The Pamplemousse (#3) is out and Quality Road (#2) might follow suit. Dunkirk remains number one but the rest of the pack gets an overhaul. Here's the updated list:
1) Dunkirk; 2) Quality Road (for now); 3) I Want Revenge; 4) Friesan Fire; 5) Desert Party; 6) Charitable Man; 7) Chocolate Candy; 8) Pioneerof the Nile; 9) Musket Man; 10-T) Terrain and Regal Ransom.