Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Given that CNBC's Jim Cramer was recently lit up like the Rockefeller center Christmas tree by The Daily Show's Jon Stewart for his stock-picking ability, I feel it important to note that I have no real confidence in my ability to create a mock draft.

I monitor NFL personnel, study perceived strengths and weaknesses of the teams, and listen to what the scouts and various draftniks say about the upcoming draft class.

But heading into my fifth draft as The My Sportsbook's NFL Editor, I can tell you that the next time the first round goes according to the rules of logic will be the first.

It's all a guessing game, and unlike some that trusted Cramer, I won't be betting my 401k on anyone's guesses, even my own.

Even if I did get my first four picks right last year.

The latest installment of my 2009 mock draft for your perusal:

1. Detroit Lions (0-16) - Jason Smith, T, Baylor (6-5, 305)

Matthew Stafford has likely garnered a great deal of discussion at Lions headquarters, but Smith - much like Jake Long last year - is more of a sure thing from a standpoint of both staying power as an NFL starter and signability. The post-Millen regime needs to get off to a good start relative to the Draft, and Smith gives them the ability to do that.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-14) - Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia (6-6, 315)

The release of Orlando Pace was not a surprise, but reminded the world of the Rams' biggest need among many. Keeping Marc Bulger upright has been among the team's most consistent problems, and Monroe - St. Louis' second straight No. 1 pick out of Virginia - will be brought in to solve it.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest (6-3, 247)

The Chiefs set a dubious NFL record for fewest sacks a year ago, and have to get better coming off the edge. Curry was the darling of the NFL combine and does a great many things well, of which rushing the passer is one.

4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12) - Brian Orapko, DE/OLB, Texas (6-4, 260)

The trade of Julian Peterson to the Lions last week showed that Seattle is looking to get younger at outside linebacker, and was an indication that the Seahawks feel that either Curry or Orapko will be available at No. 4. Stafford may be tempting given Matt Hasselbeck's health issues, but defensive needs will be served first.

5. Cleveland Browns (4-12) - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College (6-1, 323)

Whether he gets his way sooner or later, Browns Pro Bowl nose tackle Shaun Rogers is at odds with new coach Eric Mangini, and wants out of Cleveland. There's no way the Browns can count on a future with Rogers playing a major role, and Raji would give them some flexibility at the position moving forward.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech (6-3, 214)

The Bengals have other needs along their atrocious offensive line and always- deficient pass rush, but taking a player at one of those positions might constitute a bit of a reach. Another playmaker for Carson Palmer, especially in light of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's free agent defection, will prove too enticing to pass up.

7. Oakland Raiders (5-11) - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri (6-1, 200)

Though Maclin has neither the size nor the profile of Crabtree, he remains a solid No. 2 among available wide receivers, and will immediately become the No. 1 receiver for an Oakland team that needs one desperately.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia (6-3, 228)

If Stafford falls to No. 8, chances are he would be irresistible to the Jaguars, who don't seem sold that David Garrard is their answer to beating Peyton Manning twice a year. Such a pick would spell trouble for head coach Jack Del Rio, who could be left counting on a rookie quarterback during a 2009 season in which he must win.

9. Green Bay Packers (6-10) - Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State (6-4, 252)

The Packers are switching to a 3-4 scheme, and need to locate the personnel to fit it. There is no consensus among scouts or experts as to whether Brown is worthy of a Top 10 pick, but he projects as a bona fide NFL starter at OLB, and that may be good enough for Green Bay.

10. San Francisco 49ers (7-9) - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC (6-3, 225)

Boy, would be this be awkward. Shaun Hill played well enough in the second half of last season to warrant the starting nod to begin 2009, former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith is still a 49er, and both will know their days are numbered if the team picks a quarterback at No. 10, as many expect.

11. Buffalo Bills (7-9) - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU (6-5, 290)

The Bills were a horrible pass rushing team after end Aaron Schobel was hurt early last season, and have to find some insurance for him coming off the edge. Jackson was viewed by many as a college underachiever, but as 4-3 ends go, he is likely to be the best of the remaining lot.

12. Denver Broncos (8-8) - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State (6-3, 250)

The Broncos hope to play a 3-4 scheme in their first year under Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, and are in dire need of edge pass rushers to fit that system. Maybin fits the role, though he will have to break a recent string of early-round defensive disappointments out of Penn State.

13. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss (6-6, 325)

If the Redskins are thinking pragmatically, they'll take Oher or Alabama tackle Andre Smith in order to prop up an inconsistent offensive line. But there is always a chance team owner Daniel Snyder will seek to make a splash, and in that regard you can't rule out Knowshon Moreno or Percy Harvin wearing a Redskins uniform.

14. New Orleans Saints (8-8) - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State (6-1, 201)

Jenkins didn't run as fast as some had hoped at the combine, and there are whispers that - like Antrel Rolle - he could end up as a safety at the next level. The secondary-challenged Saints figure to take their chances regardless, and if Jenkins is gone, Illinois' Vontae Davis could be a target.

15. Houston Texans (8-8) - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC (6-3, 255)

Despite their best efforts to prop up the defensive front seven, the Texans still have two bona fide starters (Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans) and a bunch of guys in that area. Recent free agent pickup Antonio Smith (ex-Cardinals) should help bolster the unit, and Cushing might take the Houston defense from mediocre to above-average.

16. San Diego Chargers (8-8) - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (5-11, 207)

The Chargers just re-signed LaDainian Tomlinson and will be paying Darren Sproles as its franchise player in'09, but neither back represents the team's future at the position. Tomlinson is too old and Sproles too small to be an every-down back, characteristics that don't fit Moreno at all. He won't get many carries in year one, but will be the Bolts' guy come 2010.

17. New York Jets (9-7) - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida (5-11, 195)

Like many players that come out of the spread offense, Harvin is something of a question mark. Is he a running back or wide receiver? Can he thrive in a pro-style offense? Is he big enough to be a No. 1 NFL wideout? The Jets will ponder these questions too, but will take a flier on a guy with such estimable athleticism.

18. Chicago Bears (9-7) - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois (6-0, 204)

The Chicago secondary underperformed last year, with Nathan Vasher missing much of the year due to injury and fellow cornerback Charles Tillman playing some of the least consistent football of his career. Davis didn't burn up the combine from a speed standpoint, but remains attractive because he can play either corner or safety.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) - Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss (6-2, 300)

The Buccaneers' December '08 collapse had much to do with the poor play of the team's front four, and the club's pursuit of Albert Haynesworth is a great indicator that they're looking for new blood there. With Haynesworth choosing the Redskins, the Bucs will draft the best defensive tackle available.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas) (0-16) - Evander Hood, DT, Missouri (6-3, 300)

After dealing Cory Redding to the Seahawks and striking out in their quest to sign Haynesworth, the Lions - who gave up 517 points last year, second-most in NFL history - have a major need along the interior defensive line. Hood is an intriguing talent, though he didn't have much of an impact on a spotty Missouri defense last season.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) - Andre Smith, T, Alabama (6-4, 330)

Smith has been one of the top stories of the pre-Draft season, and for all the wrong reasons. During the calendar year, he's been suspended for Alabama's Sugar Bowl appearance, gone AWOL from the combine after giving a series of disastrous interviews with teams, and shown off a flabby physique during an individual workout a couple of weeks back. Still, he's a potentially dominating left tackle, and won't come close to slipping out of the first round.

22. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) - Alex Mack, C, Cal (6-3, 316)

As if they needed another reason to detest Brad Childress, Vikings fans seethed when the team allowed longtime center and local hero Matt Birk to slip to Baltimore via free agency. No. 22 might be a bit high to draft a center, but on a run-first team, and knowing that they'll need to account for Birk's production, Minnesota will make that reach.

23. New England Patriots (11-5) - Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC (6-2, 260)

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Patriots won't take an inside linebacker first for a second straight year (Jerod Mayo), but if a player of Maualuga's quality slips to No. 23, Bill Belichick isn't going to give much consideration to conventional wisdom. Otherwise, o-line and/or secondary are possible first- round targets for New England.

24. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) - Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech (6-7, 260)

The Falcons couldn't possibly be counting on its current end tandem of John Abraham, who played well last year but has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, and Jamaal Anderson, a former first-round bust. Johnson isn't the biggest or most feared pass rusher in the world, but was a productive college player who gives the team some much-needed DE depth.

25. Miami Dolphins (11-5) - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State (6-5, 265)

Chances are, the Dolphins are going to end up with someone from the Marvin Harrison/Torry Holt/Anquan Boldin circuit, and an offense that leaned heavily on its tight ends last year could use one more top-flight target. Pettigrew's stock is falling due to a rough combine and a lingering hamstring problem, but he's still the top tight end in this draft and is unlikely to fall out of the first round.

26. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest (5-9, 193)

The all-time leader in ACC interceptions, Smith is undersized but his playmaking ability means he has "Raven" written all over him. Baltimore will go into 2009 with Domonique Foxworth and Fabian Washington as the cornerback starters, but need depth in that area after parting ways with Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle.

27. Indianapolis Colts (12-4) - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State (6-3, 240)

Laurinaitis hurt his stock by running a slow 4.78 at the combine, but the fact that he's a big, sure tackler prevents him from falling off the radar altogether. Laurinaitis might be a particularly good fit for the Colts, who are always small up front and dealt with Gary Brackett's injury problems late last season.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina) (9-6-1) - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee (6-3, 272)

Eagles fans would not be bowled over by the selection of a defensive end who projects as more of a run-stopper than pass rusher, but coordinator Jim Johnson has long favored a deep rotation along the defensive line, and Ayers could end up being an underrated and all-important "glue" type player.

29. New York Giants (12-4) - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland (6-3, 206)

The Giants had no field-stretching presence once Plaxico Burress was exiled last year, and that's a need the team is still looking to fill via trade (Anquan Boldin?), free agency (Torry Holt?), or failing that, the Draft. Heyward-Bey ran the fastest time among wideouts at the combine (4.30), though middling college production (only 13 TDs in three years) makes him a bit of a question mark.

30. Tennessee Titans (13-3) - Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina (6-2, 210)

That the Titans have won 23 games the past two years without anything resembling a No. 1 receiver is a minor miracle, and a situation that opposing defenses are going to have success exploiting at some point. Is Nicks a No. 1 receiver? Maybe not, since his 40 times have been in the 4.6 range, but he has very good hands, was productive after the catch while at UNC, and would immediately become Tennessee's most talented target.

31. Arizona Cardinals (9-7) - Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State (6-1, 235)

The Cardinals were at or near the bottom of the NFL rushing chart throughout 2008, and with J.J. Arrington gone, Edgerrin James likely gone, and Tim Hightower not exactly looking like the next Ottis Anderson, a void remains at the position. Enter Wells, who has drawn mixed reviews due to less-than-flashy speed but would give the Cardinals a bona fide inside running threat.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Eben Britton, T, Arizona (6-6, 309)

No matter what Ben Roethlisberger says, the Steelers trotted out a bottom-five tackle tandem throughout 2008, and can't count on a) winning the Super Bowl or b) keeping Roethlisberger alive if they don't upgrade their talent there soon. Britton lacks some polish, but is seen as a high-effort type who would fit in well with Pittsburgh.

Bubbling Under:

Clay Matthews, LB, USC (6-3, 240) Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State (6-6, 250) William Beatty, T, Connecticut (6-6, 307) Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut (5-10, 210) Larry English, OLB/DE, Northern Illinois (6-2, 255) Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers (6-4, 215) Sean Smith, CB, Utah (6-3, 214) D.J. Moore, DB, Vanderbilt (5-10, 182) Louis Delmas, DB, Western Michigan (5-11, 200) Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia (6-3, 256)