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Number One Seeds in Peril?


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Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The top teams are usually seeded high for a reason. Six number one seeds, along with a pair of seconds, made up the past two Final Fours, with a pair of ones ending up in each championship game.

Three of this year's four number one seeds (North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Louisville) have garnered most of the action this year at 5-2, 9-2, and 11-2 odds, respectively. The other top team, Connecticut, is tied for fourth in the betting at 7-1 along with Memphis, its number two counterpart in the West. Those five are the only clubs currently in single digits.

Will any of the number one seeds fail to reach Ford Field in Detroit on April 4? Recent history says no, but injuries to key contributors could play a huge part in determining the answer. North Carolina's Ty Lawson did not play in the team's two ACC Tournament games and the Tar Heels were upset by Florida State, 73-70, in the semifinal round.

The point guard's injured big toe might not be fully healed until after the season is over so the favorite to win the title might be a bit of a risky play. Fortunately for Roy Williams, his squad has arguably the easiest road to the Final Four, since Oklahoma has injury concerns of its own. The Sooners have dropped three of their last five games since Blake Griffin was injured vs. Texas. Even though the sophomore has returned, he failed to score 20 points in losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State.

Another member of the walking wounded is Pittsburgh's Levance Fields. The Panthers point guard is dealing with an injured groin, and scored just six points on 3-10 shooting in the Big East Tournament loss to West Virginia. Fields also committed five turnovers in that game, his most since handing Louisville the ball six times in the Cardinals' six-point win over Pittsburgh in mid-January.

POTENTIAL UPSETS?

Ever since 11th-seeded George Mason wore the glass slipper in 2006, handicappers have been trying to find the next Cinderella. Davidson tried its best last season before bowing out by just two points to eventual champion Kansas in the Regional Finals. Can any potential long shot scale its way to the top of the mountain this year?

There are a few candidates with odds of 100-1 or higher that could do some damage along the way, but it's doubtful any one of them could reach the Final Four.

In the East, Tennessee (125-1) has an outside chance to make it if Pittsburgh's Levance Fields is still hobbled by his injured groin. The Volunteers, arguably the year's most inconsistent team, still have the talent to reel off a few wins beginning with a victory over Oklahoma State in an 8/9 game on Friday. If Bruce Pearl's club can get past the Panthers (assuming they win their opener) in the following round, a spot in the Final Four is not out of the question.

The South could be the one bracket where the majority of the top seeds fail to advance. Temple (200-1) has won 10 of its last 12 games and gets to play an Arizona State team that might be ripe for the picking. If the Owls win, they'll most likely knock heads with Syracuse on March 22, and the Orange could be a tad tired after playing all of those overtimes in the Big East Tournament. Moreover, don't be shocked if Stephen F. Austin makes Syracuse earn the first round victory.

Western Kentucky (250-1) has the ability to beat Illinois, especially if Fighting Illini guard Chester Frazier is a no-show in the opener. From there, the road gets trickier, as potential matchups vs. Gonzaga and North Carolina could take their toll, but don't underestimate the Hilltoppers. WKU won a pair of NCAA Tournament games last season before falling to UCLA, and will be a tough out once again.

The Midwest has one possible Cinderella in Dayton at 150-1. The Flyers, one of two teams to beat Temple the final month of the season, also got the best of Marquette and Xavier during the year.

The West might not provide as much excitement as the other three brackets but could have a five (Purdue) and a six (Marquette) in the Regional Semifinals.

THE 2008-09 CHAMPION

Eight of the last 10 NCAA finalists won their postseason league title, including all six championship game participants the last three years. Combine that stat with the fact that two number-one seeds (Florida and Kansas) have proven victorious in the past two seasons, and there's only one possible choice to win it all in '09.

The Louisville Cardinals won their conference championship, the lone top seed to accomplish that feat. More importantly, Rick Pitino has led five teams to years with five defeats or fewer, and those clubs have reached the Final Four four times, with one championship banner raised at Kentucky in 1996.

The Big East has been the number one conference all season long, and the best team from the league is a square price to win it all at 11-2 odds. The Midwest could be the most loaded of all four brackets, with Michigan State, Kansas and Wake Forest quite possibly reaching the Sweet 16, but none of those three squads should give the Cardinals a run for their money. In fact, one could argue that the Spartans are the weakest of the four number-two seeds.

What's more, a potential Final Four matchup with Connecticut could be an easier task than tackling Pittsburgh or North Carolina, if those two clubs are 100% healthy come early April.

March 18, 2009, at 11:32 AM ET
<-- Tourney '09: Breaking Down the Brackets
Williams: "Huge probability" Lawson will not play -->

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Morehead State moves on to face Louisville
Morehead State moves on to face Louisville
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