Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The framers of the case that the NFL scouting combine can do a player more harm than good should now take a bow.
The just-completed 2009 meat market saw a number of players boost their stock, most notably soon-to-be-very-rich Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, but cases like Curry's were far outweighed by those that saw their stock plummet in the manner of the current housing market.
For Alabama left tackle Andre Smith, projected by many to be the St. Louis Rams' target with the No. 2 pick in the Draft, the long weekend was a long nightmare.
Smith reportedly gave a round of disastrous interviews with prospective employers, soon after which he determined he would not participate in drills as anticipated, hopped on a plane back to Atlanta without telling a soul, then explained away his behavior by saying he was too out-of-shape to work out.
This coming from a player who already had a ton of character-related questions to answer after being suspended for Alabama's Sugar Bowl loss to Utah due to a violation of team rules.
Did this kid go to a finishing school run by Ryan Leaf?
Though Smith still has a chance to redeem himself with a strong individual workout next month, word out of Indianapolis is that the 6-4, 340-pound (and evidently expanding) tackle may have fallen all the way to the bottom of the first round with his bizarre antics.
Guys like Matthew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, and Malcolm Jenkins should be thankful that Smith was there to devour so much of the negative attention.
Stafford's status as the presumptive top pick came off its moorings, less because of what Stafford did and more because of what he failed to do: anything.
The Georgia QB was there for a weigh-in and some interviews, but he didn't throw, didn't run very well, and allowed players like USC signal-caller Mark Sanchez to close the gap in the minds of several scouts and their teams.
The feeling from Indy was that Stafford isn't such a can't-miss superstud that he'll be the top QB chosen just because he looks the part. Stafford certainly isn't the first player to pass up combine work in the interests of shining in a more comfortable setting at his individual workout, but when combined with the fact that the 6-3, 240-pounder came up small in several big games last year, grave doubts are beginning to creep in about his viability as an NFL starter.
Crabtree's problem wasn't immaturity or perceived arrogance, it was injury...and in the NFL, that might be worse.
The Texas Tech wide receiver revealed that he has a stress fracture in his left foot that will require surgery, though he said he will run the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day on March 26th, prior to going under the knife.
Any lingering doubts about Crabtree's health could hurt his stock in a Draft that also includes intriguing wideouts such as Jeremy Maclin (Missouri) and Percy Harvin (Florida), as well as the rapidly ascending Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland).
While all of the top-flight wideouts seemed to be dealing with nagging injury problems at the combine, Heyward-Bey stepped up and ran a 4.30 40-yard dash, the best official figure among wideouts at the event.
On the negative end of the 40-yard spectrum, the Ohio State cornerback Jenkins likely deflated any chance of being the first defensive back chosen when he couldn't break 4.5 in the 40. The showing means that Jenkins will likely be projected as an NFL safety, rather than the more coveted position of corner, and boosts the profile of CBs like Vontae Davis (Illinois), D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt) and sleeper Lardarius Webb (Nicholls State by way of Southern Miss).
In addition to Curry, who impressed with both his physical skills and character, Boston College defensive tackle B.J. Raji and Texas linebacker Brian Arapko were among the players that left positive impressions.
A look at the way we currently see the Top 10 shaping up (subject to change on an hourly basis):
1. Lions - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - Having worked with Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee, new Lions coach Jim Schwartz understands the impact a space-eating defensive tackle can have.
2. Rams - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest - Steve Spagnuolo will be tempted to target a pure pass rusher, but one year after selecting Chris Long, the Rams will target a different kind of playmaker in the front seven.
3. Chiefs - Brian Orapko, DE/OLB, Texas - Last year, Kansas City generated the fewest sacks since the stat was first tabulated, and Orapko looks like a bona fide edge pass rusher.
4. Seahawks - Jason Smith, T, Baylor - Smith has stepped into the top-five void left by Andre Smith, and the Seahawks will groom him as Walter Jones' eventual replacement.
5. Browns - Aaron Maybin, OLB, Penn State - Another team with a weak pass rush will seek a playmaker off the edge.
6. Bengals - Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia - Cincinnati has bigger problems on the interior of the offensive line, but given Stacy Andrews' injury situation, tackle serves a need as well.
7. Raiders - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - JaMarcus Russell needs some receivers in a big way, and for all his injury and size questions, Crabtree still looks like the best target available.
8. Jaguars - Andre Smith, T, Alabama - We all know the Jaguars aren't too concerned with character issues, so they'll take a gamble on Smith at No. 8.
9. Packers - Rey Maualuga, LB, USC - Packers struggled to stop the run last year, and will hope that Maualuga can develop into a Lofa Tatupu-type at middle linebacker.
10. 49ers - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia - He won't fall as far as Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn, but once he gets past the Chiefs at No. 3, Stafford won't find a suitable match until the Niners are on the clock.
FREE AGENT FRENZY
At 12:01am Eastern Time on Friday morning, the madness will begin. That is the moment when the NFL's 2009 free agency period officially commences, and you can expect that several of the biggest names will be off the board in the first few hours. The movement is likely to include at least one trade, as a deal sending Texans backup QB Sage Rosenfels to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for a fourth-round pick is widely reported to be done.
The biggest name with a chance to switch jerseys early is All-Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who has been linked to the Redskins in various reports over the past few days. Haynesworth is likely looking for a $40 million-or-so signing bonus and something close to the $12.2 million per year that Jared Allen received from the Vikings last season. Washington's Daniel Snyder is one of a handful of owners willing to pony up those kinds of bucks. This deal is far from done, mind you. Look for Tennessee and possibly another NFC East team (or three) to get involved in the sweepstakes for the free agent class' most highly-coveted defensive player.
Two big names on the free agent wire, Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner and Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, seem likely to stay put. Arizona has reportedly upped its offer to Warner to the $10-to-12 million range per year, and seems unlikely to allow him to slip away. Lewis, meanwhile, has been linked to the Cowboys thanks to comments made by Dallas pass rusher DeMarcus Ware last week, but it seems like a long shot that the Cowboys would be willing to pay the 34- year-old linebacker more than would Baltimore owner Steve Bisciotti. Lewis has to know that the situation (from both a personnel and coaching standpoint) with the Ravens is more stable, and if he wants to get back to the Super Bowl, you'd have to believe his chances are just as good (if not better) in Baltimore than in Dallas.
This year's wide receiver crop is especially interesting, more for who isn't available than who is. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and recently-released Marvin Harrison are two of the biggest prizes at the moment, but potential suitors like the Eagles and Giants may not want to break the bank for either if they think they have a realistic shot at Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson via trade. Another sleeper to keep an eye on at the position is Devery Henderson. Henderson has not lived up to his second-round billing since being selected by the Saints in 2004, but he's averaged better than 20 yards per catch in each of the past three seasons and might be viewed as an intriguing deep threat by several teams.
Stay tuned to sportsnetwork.com for breaking news on the free agent front.
