(My Sportsbook) - With an AFC Divisional Playoff game at the
Tennessee Titans on tap for this Saturday, giddy
Baltimore Ravens fans are all too aware of the parallels.
It was the 2000 postseason when the Ravens, a Wild Card upstart, went into Nashville to play the top-seeded Titans in the AFC Divisional Round.
Baltimore was coached that day by Brian Billick, who was taking his first tentative steps as a head coach in the realm of playoff football, and quarterbacked by a man, Trent Dilfer, who the world seemed to be waiting to fall flat on his face.
Against the run-first Titans attack led by All-Pro Eddie George, the Ravens posed their staunch defense, led by middle linebacker Ray Lewis.
Baltimore was scary that day, winning 24-10 on the way to its first, and to date only, Super Bowl victory.
The new cast members in the revival of that memorable playoff game are John Harbaugh, Joe Flacco, and the duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White, who are playing the parts of Billick, Dilfer, and George, respectively.
Otherwise, the scenario is almost identical to the one that played out eight long years ago - complete with Lewis and the still-dominant Ravens defense - with the result ranking as the only element of the story left in doubt.
Ravens fans are hoping that part of the tale falls right into line.
In order to set up the veritable encore presentation, the Ravens first had to win on the road (just as they did in Denver in 2000), making relatively short work of the Miami Dolphins in a 27-9 affair last Sunday that ranked as the most lopsided game of Wild Card weekend.
A defense that led the NFL in takeaways and interceptions during the regular season was at it again, forcing five turnovers - including four INTs off of normally efficient quarterback Chad Pennington - from a team that had committed an NFL-low-tying 13 turnovers during the entire regular season.
Two of the picks went to soaring Baltimore safety Ed Reed, the fifth time in a stunning stretch of seven games that the Pro Bowler has recorded multiple interceptions. Reed's first pick provided the Ravens with their initial touchdown of the game, as the Miami-Florida product picked off a floated Pennington pass and raced 64 yards for a touchdown to stake the team to a 10-3 lead.
The Ravens will likely need to employ a similar formula for success if they are to beat a Tennessee team that recorded the NFL's best record (13-3) during the regular season.
The Titans will be hosting their first playoff game since beating the Steelers in a 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff, and will be looking to win a postseason contest for the first time since taking a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in the 2003 Wild Card Round.
During the bye week, Jeff Fisher's club had an opportunity to get healthier, as Titans defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (knee) and end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) are both expected to play on Saturday after missing the final two and three games, respectively, of the regular season.
SERIES HISTORY
As mentioned, the Ravens and Titans have split a pair of memorable postseason contests during the current decade. Baltimore went on the road to earn a 24-10 victory in a 2000 AFC Divisional Playoff, en route to a Super Bowl title, and the Titans returned the favor with a 20-17 road win in a 2003 AFC First-Round Playoff. Kicker Gary Anderson's 46-yard field goal with 29 seconds to play gave Tennessee the latter win.
The all-time regular season series between the Ravens and Titans is deadlocked, 8-8, with Tennessee evening the series by virtue of its 13-10 win at Baltimore in Week 5. The Ravens won the previous meeting, a 27-26 thriller in Nashville in 2006. Tennessee last won a home game in the series in 2005, taking a 25-10 decision in that contest.
Fisher has a 10-8 record against Baltimore all-time, including playoffs, while Baltimore's Harbaugh is 0-1 against both Fisher and the Titans as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Flacco's first playoff outing was by no means the sharpest game of his rookie year, as he completed just 9-of-23 throws for 135 yards. But the youngster added value by rushing for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, did not turn the ball over all day, and put the team in position to score with three drives of 46 yards or more. Top Ravens wideout Derrick Mason (80 receptions, 5 TD during the regular season) again provided a capable target for Flacco, catching four balls for a game-high 71 yards. No. 2 receiver Mark Clayton (41 receptions, 3 TD) and veteran tight end Todd Heap (35 receptions, 3 TD) combined for three grabs in the win. As usual, Baltimore also received a strong effort in the running game, where burly Le'Ron McClain (902 rushing yards, 19 receptions, 11 TD) and cohort Willis McGahee (671 rushing yards, 7 TD, 24 receptions) combined for 137 yards and a touchdown (by McClain) on 26 combined carries. Likely to be added to the ground mix this week is rookie scatback Ray Rice (454 rushing yards, 33 receptions), who has been bothered by a calf problem but is expected to play. McClain and Rice combined for 115 yards on 33 totes (3.5 yards per carry) in Tennessee back in Week 5, while Flacco threw two interceptions to harm the cause. The developing Ravens offensive line, which did not allow a sack last week, also succeeded in preventing one against the Titans on Oct. 5th.
Though Joey Porter and the Dolphins defense provided their own unique set of hurdles last week, the group Flacco will be going up against on Saturday presents a decided step up in class. The Titans finished the regular season ranked No. 9 in the NFL against the pass (199.8 yards per game), No. 6 against the run (93.9 yards per game), and No. 5 in sacks (44). The front four is the most frightening element of the Tennessee defense, as tackles Haynesworth (51 tackles, 8.5 sacks), Tony Brown (52 tackles, 4 sacks), and blossoming rookie Jason Jones (31 tackles, 5 sacks) combine with ends Vanden Bosch (24 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Jevon Kearse (34 tackles, 3.5 sacks) to be oft-stifling against both the run and the pass. The work of that group takes much of the pressure off of a secondary that consistently made big plays all year, led by a pair of Pro Bowlers in safety Chris Hope (78 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and cornerback Cortland Finnegan (70 tackles, 5 INT, 1 sack). The two other members of the starting secondary - cornerback Nick Harper (71 tackles, 2 INT) and strong safety Michael Griffin (75 tackles, 7 INT, 1 sack) - each had interceptions of Flacco in Week 5. If there's a weakness in the Tennessee "D", it is the linebackers, though strong side backer Keith Bulluck (98 tackles) is well- respected and fellow LB starters David Thornton (78 tackles) and Stephen Tulloch (84 tackles, 1 sack) have had their moments as well.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
Though the Titans have been a run-first team for much of the year, the offensive story for the unit on Saturday will be quarterback Kerry Collins (2676 passing yards, 12 TD, 7 INT), who will be seeking his first win as a playoff starter since 2000, when he led the Giants to the Super Bowl before falling to the Ravens. Collins exorcised the Baltimore demon in Week 5, when he threw a couple of interceptions but also amassed 163 yards through the air and tossed the game-winning touchdown in the closing minutes. Justin Gage (34 receptions, 6 TD) and Brandon Jones (58 receptions, 2 TD) have been Collins' best down-the-field threats. But rest assured, a team that ranked seventh in the league in rushing offense (137.4 yards per game) during the regular season will be looking to run, first and foremost. Rookie rushing phenom Chris Johnson (1228 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 10 TD) will look to break out after amassing just 44 yards on 18 carries against Baltimore in Week 5, and LenDale White (773 rushing yards, 15 TD), whose four touches totaled only four yards in that contest, will attempt to do the same. Up front, Tennessee center Kevin Mawae (elbow) is not likely to play on Saturday, and Leroy Harris is expected to start in his place. The Titans gave up just 12 sacks all year, and did not allow Baltimore to post one in Week 5.
Though the Ravens put up a solid effort for the most part against the Titans offense last time out, in their return to Tennessee, they'll need to do a better job of covering the team's tight ends. In Week 5, tight ends Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler combined for 10 of the team's 17 catches, accounted for 126 of 163 receiving yards, and Crumpler scored the Titans' only touchdown on an 11-yard catch with 1:56 to play. Safeties Reed (41 tackles, 9 INT, 1 sack during the regular season) and Jim Leonhard (69 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) figure to play a key role against the tight ends this time around, and given his recent exploits, Collins will have to be aware of Reed's location on the field at all times. Cornerbacks Fabian Washington (31 tackles, 1 INT) and ex-Titan Samari Rolle (23 tackles, 3 INT) will look to hold the Tennessee wide receivers in check, and top pass rushers Terrell Suggs (68 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT) and Trevor Pryce (27 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will try to break through for a rare sack of Collins. The Ravens have been outstanding against the run for most of the year, and that status carried over to last week's win over Miami, when they surrendered just 52 yards on 21 rush attempts for the day. Tackles Haloti Ngata (55 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) and Justin Bannan (45 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) set the tone in the trenches, with linebackers Ray Lewis and Bart Scott working behind them. The Ravens were No. 3 against the run (83.4 yards per game) and No. 2 against the pass (179.7 yards per game) during the regular season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Ever-reliable Ravens kicker Matt Stover (27-33 FG) banged home two short field goals last week, and three of kickoff specialist Steven Hauschka's six kickoffs went for touchbacks. Punter Sam Koch (45.0 avg.) punted to a 42.3 average last week, and the punt team did not allow a return longer than five yards. A kickoff coverage unit that was shaky at times during the regular season gave up a 34-yard return to Miami's Patrick Cobbs a week ago. On returns, Baltimore stuck with Leonhard (11.6 punt return avg.) on punts, who amassed 21 yards on two returns, and had rookie Tom Zbikowski and LeRon McClain both fielding kickoffs.
The Titans have two of the most reliable legs in the business with kicker Rob Bironas and punter Craig Hentrich (42.8 avg.). Bironas was 29-of-33 on field goals during the regular season, including a perfect 13-of-13 from inside 40 yards, though he missed a 38-yard kick in last season's playoff loss to the Chargers. Twenty-two of Bironas' 85 kickoffs this year went for touchbacks, and the kick coverage unit did not allow a touchdown. Hentrich, meanwhile, remains one of the better directional and placement kickers in the NFL. The Titans did not have a TD in the return game this season, though primary return man Chris Carr (28.1 kickoff return avg., 10.1 punt return avg.) regularly broke long returns.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Titans and Ravens reached the playoffs by different means, with Tennessee getting out in front early in the AFC South, and staying there, while Baltimore fought tooth-and-nail to land the final Wild Card berth by playing mostly inspired football over the season's final two-and-a-half months. No matter what the mode of travel was, however, the fact is that these teams are evenly matched at this stage of the year, with two terrific defenses and running games preparing to collide in what should be a physical, low-scoring affair. The Titans are a little better than the Ravens offensively, while Baltimore enjoys a slight nod over Tennessee on the other side of the ball. If you subscribe to the theory that defense wins championships, the smart money is on the Ravens this week, especially when considering that the Titans have some health issues on the defensive line.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Ravens 21, Titans 17