(My Sportsbook) - The
San Diego Chargers have surged to five straight wins as they enter their AFC Divisional Playoff matchup at the
Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, but they'll make their trip to Heinz Field limping...literally.
The team's top two offensive weapons of the current decade - future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates - are contending with injuries that could severely hamper the Chargers attack as it enters what figures to be a hard-hitting contest against the top-rated defense of the Steelers.
Tomlinson suffered what has been reported as a detachment of the tendon that connects his groin muscle to his pelvic bone in a Week 17 win over the Denver Broncos, and was able to see only limited action in the early stages of last Saturday's 23-17 overtime victory against the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card round.
Tomlinson is considered questionable for Sunday, and while his injury is concerning, the performance that backup Darren Sproles turned in last Saturday has to alleviate the pain just a bit for the Chargers and their fans.
The 5-foot-6, 181-pound Sproles was the star of the mild upset, amassing 328 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, including a game-winning 22-yard run in overtime. The Kansas State product carried 23 times for 105 yards and two scores in the win, caught five passes for 45 yards out of the backfield, notched 72 yards on three punt returns, including a 28-yarder, and rounded out the performance with 106 yards worth of kickoff return yards.
The injury to Gates, meanwhile, is far less discouraging for San Diego than is Tomlinson's.
The perennial Pro Bowl tight end will be listed as questionable on the injury report, but held the same status heading into the Indianapolis game, a contest in which he recorded a team-best eight receptions for 87 yards.
Gates sat out practice on Wednesday but is expected to play.
Rest assured, San Diego will need all the offensive help in can get against a Pittsburgh team that led the NFL in regular season total defense (237.2 yards per game), scoring defense (13.9 points per game), and passing defense (156.9 yards per game), finished second against the run (80.2 yards per game) and in sacks(51), and had three defenders named to the AFC Pro Bowl team.
Included in that group was outside linebacker James Harrison, who earlier this week was named the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year. Harrison, fellow linebacker James Farrior, and safety Troy Polamalu were all selected to represent the Steelers in Hawaii on Feb. 8th.
Though the statistical rankings and individual accolades are nice, Pittsburgh's main focus on Sunday will be winning its first playoff game since raising the Lombardi Trophy to celebrate a win over the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.
The Black and Gold failed to make the playoffs the following year, and last season - their first under head coach Mike Tomlin - saw the team dealt a 31-29 Wild Card round setback to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This year, the second-seeded Steelers earned themselves at least one postseason home game by storming through the AFC North at 12-4, and will be attempting to win a playoff outing at Heinz Field for the first time since downing the New York Jets in the 2004 AFC Divisional Round.
Tomlin's head coaching counterpart, Norv Turner, will be trying to reach a milestone of his own on Sunday. With a win for the Chargers, Turner will move to the top of the San Diego chart for playoff wins by a head coach. Turner, who is 3-1 in the postseason while with the Bolts, is currently tied with Bobby Ross and Don Coryell on that list.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chargers have won their only two postseason meetings with the Steelers all-time, with both of those games coming in Pittsburgh. The Bolts were 31-28 road winners in a 1982 AFC First-Round Playoff and stunned the Steelers, 17-13, on the road in the 1994 AFC Championship.
Pittsburgh has a 20-6 edge in its all-time regular season series with San Diego, including its 11-10 home victory when the teams met in Week 14. The Chargers won the previous meeting, snapping a five-game losing streak in the series with a 23-13 home win in 2006. Oddly enough, given their playoff success in the Steel City, The Chargers are 0-13 in regular season games played in Pittsburgh all-time.
Turner is 0-3 in his career against the Steelers, with one loss each while with the Redskins (1997), Raiders (2004), and Chargers (2008). Pittsburgh's Tomlin is 1-0 against both Turner and the Chargers as a head coach.
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (4409 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT during the regular season) led the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating (105.5) during the regular campaign, then followed up with a solid showing in last week's win over the Colts, but will have a hard time maintaining that level of play against the ferocious Steelers defense. Rivers had arguably his worst game of the year against Pittsburgh in Week 11, throwing for just 164 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes, and only 83 yards worth of his completions went down the field to wide receivers. Sproles (330 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 7 TD) will have to play a significant role in the pass-catching game again, as will tight ends Gates (60 receptions, 8 TD) and Brandon Manumaleuna (15 receptions, 2 TD). When he has time to look down the field, Vincent Jackson (59 receptions, 7 TD) and Chris Chambers (33 receptions, 5 TD) will be Rivers' main targets. Jackson, who did not have a catch last Saturday, will play on Sunday despite reportedly being cited for suspicion of DUI earlier in the week. Chambers had four catches for 57 yards a week ago. The protection of an offensive line that allowed four sacks against the Colts in the Wild Card round will be critical this week.
As is customary for the Steelers, Pittsburgh applied a great deal of pressure to Rivers in the most recent meeting, but was able to come up with just two sacks on the day. Harrison (101 tackles, 16 sacks, 1 INT) had one of those take-downs, and also posted one of the club's two interceptions, along with Polamalu (73 tackles, 7 INT). Harrison and fellow outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley (60 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 INT) will pose the biggest concerns for Rivers coming off the edge, while Polamalu leads a coverage group also featuring Ike Taylor (65 tackles, 1 INT) and Bryant McFadden (41 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) at the corners and steady Ryan Clark (87 tackles, 1 INT) at free safety. Sproles, meanwhile, will have to contend with a much bigger front seven than the light Indianapolis group he faced last Saturday. Massive nose tackle Casey Hampton (22 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Aaron Smith (60 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Brett Keisel (41 tackles, 1 sack) were stifling against the run for most of the year, and Farrior (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and fellow inside linebackers Larry Foote (63 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Lawrence Timmons (65 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) were sure tacklers behind them. Keisel had a team- best seven tackles versus the Chargers in Week 11, while Foote notched five stops in that win.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
Were it not for the status of Tomlinson and Gates, the biggest injury story heading into this week's game would involve Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (3301 passing yards, 17 TD, 15 INT). Roethlisberger was carted off the field in the second quarter of the team's win over the Browns in Week 17, though the dramatic scene soon gave way to the encouraging news that the former Super Bowl-winning QB had suffered only a mild concussion. Roethlisberger has been back at practice all week and will start on Sunday, barring anything unforeseen. "Big Ben" threw for 308 yards on 31-of-41 passing without a touchdown or turnover against the Chargers in Week 11, but was sacked four times by a mostly-dreadful Steelers line that allowed 49 sacks on the year. Wideouts Hines Ward (81 receptions, 7 TD), Santonio Holmes (55 receptions, 5 TD), and tight end Heath Miller (48 receptions, 3 TD) have been Roethlisberger's primary targets this season. Ward had his best game of 2008 with 11 receptions for 124 yards last time out against San Diego. Meanwhile, the Steelers will enter the 2008 playoffs seeking to re-establish a once-proud rushing attack that has been burdened by injuries this year. Willie Parker (791 rushing yards, 5 TD) figures to be the primary ball-carrier in the contest, with support from Mewelde Moore (588 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 6 TD). Parker posted one of his four 100-yard games of the 2008 season against the Chargers in Week 11.
The Chargers generated 14 fewer sacks and 15 fewer interceptions during the 2008 regular season than they did a year ago, also ranking 31st in the league in passing yards allowed (247.4 yards per game), but come off a week in which they did a nice job against league MVP Peyton Manning and the Colts attack. Manning threw for 310 yards and a touchdown in the game, but was able to deliver just one red-zone touchdown on the night. What's more, San Diego did show the ability to pressure Roethlisberger back in Week 11, with end Jacques Cesaire (21 tackles, 2 sacks) breaking through for his only two sacks of the year and outside linebackers Shaun Phillips (74 tackles, 7.5 sacks) and Jyles Tucker (37 tackles, 5.5 sacks) combining for another 1.5. On the back end, Antonio Cromartie (64 tackles, 2 INT) and Quentin Jammer (88 tackles, 2 INT) will be defending Ward and Holmes, with safeties Eric Weddle (127 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Clinton Hart (63 tackles) providing the final line of defense. Though Parker hit triple-digits against the Chargers in the teams' last meeting, the strength of the San Diego "D" remains a run-stopping group led by nose tackle Jamal Williams (56 tackles, 1.5 sacks), ends Luis Castillo (39 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Igor Olshansky (29 tackles, 2 sacks), and inside linebacker Stephen Cooper (98 tackles, 4 INT, 1.5 sacks). The unit held Indy's Joseph Addai to 44 yards on 16 carries (2.8 per rush) last week, with Cooper's team-high eight tackles leading the way.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rarely does the performance of a punter warrant as much discussion as the work San Diego's Mike Scifres (45.7 avg.) did last week. The Western Illinois product and perennial Pro Bowl snub was simply brilliant, punting to a 52.7 average and keeping field position in San Diego's favor with multiple kicks inside the 5-yard line. All six of Scifres' punts landed inside the 20-yard line. Also encouraging was the one big moment for kicker Nate Kaeding (27-32 FG), who shook off a dubious history of missing playoff field goals by connecting on a 26-yard game-tying trifecta with 31 seconds to play in the fourth quarter. Sproles (11.3 punt return avg., 26.0 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) handled all of the returns last week despite his higher-profile on offense, and that situation is unlikely to change on Sunday. The kick coverage group did not let up a sizeable return against Indy, and was rock-solid during the regular season as well.
The Steelers have a reliable leg in seventh-year kicker Jeff Reed, who was 27- of-31 on field goals during the regular season and leads a kickoff unit that is allowing a paltry 19.3 yards per return. The punting game has not been nearly as strong, as veteran Mitch Berger (41.3 avg.) has been competent but unspectacular. The punt coverage group has been strong though, allowing just 6.2 yards per return without surrendering a touchdown. On returns, neither Santonio Holmes (6.6 punt return average) nor Gary Russell (23.2 kickoff return average) have been among the league's most electrifying return men.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
No eight-loss team has ever reached the Championship round of the NFL playoffs, and though the Chargers have certainly displayed more strength in the past five weeks than your typical eight-loss team, San Diego still has a couple of fatal flaws the Steelers seem certain to expose. Sproles comes off a nice week against a mediocre Colts run-stopping group, but against a physical Steelers team that rarely if ever lets even the game's best running backs - including Tomlinson - run wild, the diminutive backup figures to come right back down to earth. Meanwhile, Rivers and the San Diego passing game are going to experience the same kinds of problems that they did in the first matchup with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers will give the quarterback little time to get comfortable and throw downfield. As usual, the Pittsburgh "D" will set the tone, and set up Roethlisberger and his attack up for enough short fields that the Steelers' own deficiencies on offense won't make much of a difference.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Steelers 27, Chargers 10