Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - If it looks to you like the 2008 NFL Playoff bracket is one in which a case could be made for any of the teams to make a run, from the top-seeded Titans to bottom-seeded Eagles, well, you're right. Though in reality, that's not really all that unusual.
A team that played on Wild Card weekend has won the last three Super Bowls, with the fifth-seeded Giants, third-seeded Colts, and sixth-seeded Steelers all raising the Lombardi Trophy since 2005, despite having to play an "extra" game. All three defeated the No. 1 seed in the corresponding conference.
The last four Super Bowl runners-up have been No. 1 seeds, which is not music to the ears of Giants or Titans fans, although the fact that a top seed usually gets to the ultimate stage should be somewhat reassuring.
But we see two trends getting bucked this year, with none of the bottom eight teams living to see a fourth postseason game, and neither of the No. 1 seeds making it to Tampa for Super Bowl XLIII.
We think both of the Super Bowl participants are coming off the No. 2 line, as Pittsburgh and Carolina will be meeting at Raymond James Stadium on Feb. 1st.
For the Steelers, the old "defense win championships" adage is appropriate, as Mike Tomlin's team has the scariest defensive unit in the field, and arguably the league's top defense since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Like that team, Pittsburgh will feature just enough offense to get by, while the defense does the rest.
The Panthers needed a long John Kasay field goal against the Saints to keep from plummeting from the No. 2 seed all the way to No. 5, but we watched as head coach John Fox pushed many of the right buttons over the final month of the season and think Carolina has a chance to do something special. The ability to run the football in January always helps, and of late, there hasn't been a more productive running back in the league than DeAngelo Williams.
So, where do we see the top-seeded Giants and Titans falling?
See below, as The My Sportsbook offers its postseason predictions leading up to the big game:
Wild Card Round:
Cardinals over Falcons
A Cardinals home playoff game only comes around once every 61 years or so, and given that the last time it happened was two cities ago, when the franchise was playing its home games at Chicago's Comiskey Park, chances are the team will be located in San Bernardino or Saskatoon the next time we see such a happening. The thought here is that the ultra-rare occurrence will bring out the best in Arizona, which should also be able to take advantage of a young Atlanta secondary with its fine receivers, and will make one more big defensive play than the Falcons in a high-scoring matchup.
Colts over Chargers
The Chargers are being billed by some as a dangerous team because of the way they played over their final four games, when they went 4-0 and won by an average margin of 19 points. But San Diego is also 0-5 against this year's playoff field - including a Nov. 23 loss to the Colts - and Indianapolis doesn't want to let the Bolts knock them out of the postseason for a second straight year. The Chargers still have plenty of problems in the pass rush and secondary, and that never bodes well when playing a Peyton Manning-led team.
Ravens over Dolphins
Here's another game where there's an obvious frame of reference, as Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7. The Dolphins have improved since then, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their requisite big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Chad Pennington is going to have a difficult time staying away from miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks and takeaways.
Eagles over Vikings
Vikings fans are so excited about Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2000 that there is a chance this contest will be the first NFL playoff game blacked out in its local area since the 2001 postseason. Many Minnesota fans see what we see - questionable coaching from Brad Childress and quarterback play from Tarvaris Jackson. The inconsistent Eagles are hardly a slam-dunk here, but look for Donovan McNabb to play well in what could represent something of an audition for his next employer.
Divisional Playoff Round:
Panthers over Cardinals
The Cardinals will hear a lot about their work on the east coast, where they're 0-5 this year and lost in their last two trips - to Philadelphia and New England - by a composite score of 95-27. Arizona folks will counter by reminding the world that their loss at Carolina on Oct. 26 came by a narrow margin of 27-23, but these teams were in a much different place way back in Week 8. With a week of rest behind them, the Panthers should win the rematch handily.
Ravens over Titans
This scenario would be deja vu to 2000, when Wild Card Baltimore went into Tennessee to play a top-seeded, 13-3 Titans team and came out with a 24-10 victory en route to a Super Bowl victory. This result wouldn't be quite as shocking, since Titans d-linemen Albert Haynesworth (knee) and Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) figure to be rusty coming off injuries, Baltimore already went toe-to-toe with Tennessee in a 13-10 loss when these teams met in Week 5, and Kerry Collins is still quarterbacking the home team.
Giants over Eagles
The Eagles came out of Giants Stadium with a 20-14 victory on Dec. 7, but don't forget that that was a desperate Philadelphia team playing an 11-1 Giants club that pretty much had the NFC East won at that point. With an extra week of rest, and with Brandon Jacobs healthy and able to receive a full compliment of carries, the G-Men will be a different team. Back-to-back road wins against physical opponents are likely to be too tall an order for Philadelphia.
Steelers over Colts
Pittsburgh in January is a place where dome teams go to die, and one week after playing what should be a tooth-and-nail matchup with the Chargers, a game against the Steelers and their swarming defense does not figure to bring out the best in Indianapolis. Ben Roethlisberger should be over his mild concussion by this point - not that it matters. The Colts escaped from the Steel City with a 24-20, Roethlisberger-turnover-aided, 24-20 win back in Week 10, but this will be a different story for the Steelers and their top-rated defense.
Championship Round:
Panthers over Giants
The Panthers were in control of their Dec. 21st matchup with the Giants for the better part of three-and-a-half quarters, building leads of 21-10 and 28-20 before allowing some big plays late in the fourth quarter and in overtime of a 34-28 loss. Carolina lost that game but proved to the world it was the real deal, just as the Giants did in Week 17 against the Patriots last year. Look for the confidence to carry over to the playoffs, where Carolina will play fast and loose against a Big Blue unit that will start to crack under the weight of high expectations.
Steelers over Ravens
Beating a team three times in one season is extraordinarily difficult (see Cowboys/Giants '07), and the Ravens gave the Steelers everything they could handle in losses of 23-20 (OT) and 13-9 during the regular season. But it's still tough to see Pittsburgh faltering in this situation, at home and with the best pass rush in the league going up against a rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco. Even if Walt Coleman doesn't officiate this game, the Steelers will get enough breaks and big defensive plays to book their reservations for Tampa.
Let's take a look at the week that will be in the National Football League:
NFL POWER POLL
The My Sportsbook's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/misc/nfl- poll.htm
THE GAMES
I had a rough go of it in Week 17, ending up 11-5 in my picks but just 5-10-1 against the spread. I finished the regular season at 159-97 (.621) straight-up and 135-112-9 (.545) with Vegas involved. On to the playoffs, where we'll see if I can handle the pressure.
Atlanta (11-5) at Arizona (9-7), Saturday, 4:30pm (NBC) (Atlanta -2)
Storylines: First home playoff game for Cardinals since team moved to Arizona in 1988, second home postseason game in franchise history, and first since the then-Chicago Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Eagles for the 1947 NFL Championship at Comiskey Park...Cardinals, who posted a winning season for just the second time in the last 24 years, are in the playoffs for the first time since reaching the Divisional Round in 1998...Falcons, who were 4-12 last season, are in the postseason for the first time since reaching the NFC Championship in 2004...Atlanta rookie quarterback Matt Ryan will make his first playoff start...Cardinals QB Kurt Warner makes his first postseason start since opening under center for Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI following the 2001 season...Coaches Ken Whisenhunt (Arizona) and Mike Smith (Atlanta) make their respective playoff debuts...Whisenhunt played 55 games at tight end for the Falcons from 1985 through 1988...Falcons safety Lawyer Milloy (back) considered questionable for Saturday...Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches (12) during the regular season...Cardinals finished last in the league in rushing offense (73.6 yards per game).
Fast Fact: An NFC West team has advanced to the Divisional Playoff Round in each of the past 25 years.
Prediction: Playoffs kick off with a shootout, as the league's past (Warner) out-duels its future (Ryan) in a tight one. Cardinals 34, Falcons 31.
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Indianapolis (12-4) at San Diego (8-8), Saturday, 8:00pm (NBC) (Indianapolis -1)
Storylines: Colts have won nine straight games since losing at Tennessee on Oct. 27, while Chargers have won four in a row since three-game losing skid sent them to 4-8...Rematch of Week 12 game won by the Colts, 23-20, in San Diego...Chargers knocked Colts out of playoffs with a 28-24 road win in 2007 AFC Divisional Round...San Diego is first 8-8 division winner since Cleveland in 1985, and first .500 team to make playoffs out of AFC since Jets in 1991... Last 8-8 team to win a playoff game was Vikings in 2004, and no 8-8 AFC entry has ever won a postseason contest...Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) expected to play against Colts...Colts safety Bob Sanders (ankle/knee), who missed 10 games during the regular season, expected to start...Indianapolis linebacker Gary Brackett (broken fibula) is out for Saturday...Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers led the NFL in passer rating (105.5) and was tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (34) during the regular season...Indianapolis finished last in the NFL in yards per rush (3.4).
Fast Fact: The road team has won eight of the last 12 matchups in the Chargers/Colts series, including playoff wins for the Colts in 1995 and the Chargers in 2007.
Prediction: The Chargers lost eight games, and that wasn't a fluke. Colts 27, Chargers 19.
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Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5), Sunday, 1:00pm (CBS) (Baltimore -3)
Storylines: Dolphins, who are in the playoffs for first time since losing to Ravens in 2001 Wild Card Round, seeking first playoff victory since beating the Colts in 2000 Wild Card Round... Ravens are 0-2 in playoff games since beating Dolphins in 2001...First postseason contests for rookie head coaches Tony Sparano (Miami) and John Harbaugh (Baltimore)...Ravens won at Miami, 27-13, in Week 7...First playoff game for Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco...Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was 1-15 in his lone season as Dolphins head coach, in 2007...Miami quarterback Chad Pennington makes initial playoff start as a Dolphin after going 2-3 in five postseason appearances with the Jets...Dolphins are 9-1 since starting the year at 2-4, while Baltimore is 9-2 since a 2-3 opening to 2008...Ravens running back Ray Rice (calf) and Dolphins tight end David Martin (head/neck) among the questionable players for Sunday... Ravens safety Ed Reed led the NFL in interceptions (9) during the regular season...Dolphins led the NFL in turnover margin (+17) and were tied for No. 1 in fewest turnovers (13) during the regular season, while Ravens were first in interceptions (26) and takeaways (34).
Fast Fact: Dolphins running back Ricky Williams has made one postseason appearance in his eight-year NFL career, rushing six times for 14 yards in a Saints loss to the Vikings in a 2000 NFC Divisional Playoff.
Prediction: Hard to imagine the Dolphins moving the ball consistently on a Ravens team that is a bit stronger on both sides of the ball. Ravens 23, Dolphins 13.
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Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6), Sunday, 4:30pm (FOX) (Philadelphia -3)
Storylines: First playoff berth for Vikings since 2004, when they reached the NFC Divisional Round before losing at Philadelphia, and first home playoff game for the franchise since it beat the Saints in the 2000 NFC Divisional Playoffs...Eagles back in playoffs after one-year hiatus, and quarterback Donovan McNabb makes his first postseason start since a Super Bowl XXXIX loss to the Patriots...Vikings head coach Brad Childress was an assistant coach with the Eagles from 1999 through 2005...Minnesota defensive tackle Pat Williams (shoulder) could be back in the lineup after missing the team's final two regular season games...Minnesota quarterback Tarvaris Jackson expected to make his first playoff start...Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, the 2008 NFL rushing champion with 1,760 yards, appears in a postseason contest for the first time...Philadelphia was 4-1 in its final five games, and outscored its opponents, 145-60, over that span...Vikings were 5-1 in their final six contests, with three of those wins coming by 18 points or better...Minnesota led the NFL in rushing defense (76.9) and yards allowed per carry (3.3) during the regular season.
Fast Fact: Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 4-0 against the Vikings all-time, including a 27-14 win in a 2004 NFC Divisional Playoff.
Prediction: Vikings fans don't seem to have too much confidence in their team, so why should the rest of the world? Eagles 24, Vikings 17.
