(My Sportsbook) - The
Chicago Bears' playoff chances were saved by a hand and a foot in a gritty win over Green Bay last Monday night at a frigid Soldier Field. Although they still need help, the Bears will head to a warmer climate this Sunday in a must-win affair against the
Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium.
A victory in the Lone Star State coupled with a Minnesota home loss to the New York Giants will give the Bears their first NFC North title since the team reached the Super Bowl in 2006. Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Bears, so if both teams win, the Vikings capture the division title.
Chicago can also clinch the final Wild Card bid in the NFC with a win and losses by both Tampa Bay and Dallas. The Bucs host Oakland, while the Cowboys visit Philadelphia.
Bears defensive end Alex Brown, who also had an interception in Monday's win, put his hand on Packers kicker Mason Crosby's 38-yard field goal attempt with 18 seconds to go in the fourth quarter to keep the game tied. Chicago then won the coin toss in overtime, and kicker Robbie Gould used his right leg to nail a 38-yard field goal with 11:28 left in the extra period for a dramatic 20-17 triumph.
Chicago displayed some resiliency by battling back from a 14-3 halftime deficit to win its third straight game and fourth in five weeks. The club will now take its 3-4 away mark to Houston.
The Texans had their franchise-record four-game winning streak come to an end with last Sunday's 27-16 loss at Oakland. They were hoping for a win over the Raiders followed by another victory this week, as that would allow Houston to finish with a record above .500 for the first time in team history. The Texans went 8-8 in 2007.
Overall, Houston has enjoyed an encouraging campaign and discovered more weapons to work with in 2009. With now-healthy quarterback Matt Schaub, wide receiver Andre Johnson and rookie running back Steve Slaton, the Texans have a legitimate shot at finishing with at least nine or 10 wins next season.
Defensive end Mario Williams, middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans and cornerback Dunta Robinson highlight a solid stop unit for Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. Rookie linebacker Xavier Adibi turned a few heads this season and is expected to battle for a starting spot in training camp. Those defensive stalwarts will try to help Houston play spoiler Sunday versus the confident Bears.
SERIES HISTORY
The Texans won their only meeting with the Bears all-time, a 24-5 decision at Soldier Field during the 2004 season. Chicago will be traveling to Houston for the first time since losing to the Oilers there in 1992, and the Bears' only win in the city all-time occurred in 1986.
Chicago head coach Lovie Smith is 0-1 against the Texans in his career, while Kubiak will be meeting both Smith and the Bears for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
It's a surprise the Bears are on the doorstep of the playoffs with such an average offense, especially their 23rd-rated pass attack. Quarterback Kyle Orton (2,728 yards, 16 TD, 12 INT) does just enough to get the job done, as evidenced by his 142-yard, one-touchdown performance versus Green Bay. Orton was picked off twice and has only passed for 200 or more yards just once in his last seven games. The typical pocket passer, Orton was sacked three times on Monday and has gone down eight times in the previous four games. His favorite target on Monday was tight end Greg Olsen (50 receptions, 4 TD), who has recorded 40 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games. Olsen hauled in five passes for 49 yards and a score versus the Packers, and has two scoring catches in the past three games. The Devin Hester (45 receptions, 3 TD) experiment at wide receiver this season hasn't produced much success, but he does lead the corps in receiving yards and is second behind Olsen and Matt Forte in total touchdowns. Forte, a rookie running back out of Tulane, leads the Bears with 60 receptions and owns 452 receiving yards and four touchdown catches.
Williams (51 tackles, 11 sacks) will try to shake up Orton in the pocket with his team-leading 11 sacks. However, the Pro Bowl end only has three sacks over the past seven games, and they all were recorded in a December 1 win over Jacksonville. Orton is barely mobile, so expect Williams to pin his ears back on the outside rush. Defensive tackle Amobi Okoye (22 tackles, 1 sack) posted the only sack for Houston last week and ended with five stops in Oakland. Raiders embattled quarterback JaMarcus Russell was able to throw for 236 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and no interceptions against the Texans' 16th- rated pass defense. Eugene Wilson (56 tackles, 2 INT) led a defense that may play without fellow safety Nick Ferguson on Sunday with a game-high nine stops. Ferguson (59 tackles) is hampered by a balky knee and is questionable against Chicago. Cornerbacks Jacques Reeves (50 tackles, 4 INT) and Robinson (36 tackles, 2 INT) should have no problem against Olsen, Hester or Forte out of the backfield.
Chicago will win this game if they can get Forte (1,188 rushing yards, 8 TD) going early and often. The rookie finished with 73 yards on 23 carries Monday night and scored on a clutch three-yard run with about three minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Forte eclipsed Anthony Thomas' Bears rookie rushing record of 1,183 rushing yards, set in 2001, and has scored in back-to-back games and four times in five weeks. Forte should have a productive afternoon against a run-of-the-mill Houston defense. He is third among all NFL rookies in rushing yards behind Tennessee's Chris Johnson and Slaton, but first in the NFC.
Kubiak's defense is not so hot against the run and sits 25th in the league, allowing 126.2 rushing yards per contest. The Texans had trouble stopping Raiders running back Justin Fargas, who posted 93 yards on 22 carries last week. Linebacker Morlon Greenwood (43 tackles) has played the last two games after missing the previous four weeks. He ended with five tackles on Sunday. Rookie Adibi (35 tackles) was inactive with a groin injury and is listed as day-to-day. Leading tackler and Pro Bowl linebacker Ryans (102 tackles, 1 sack) is enjoying his usual productive season and will shoot for his fifth games of the year with 10 or more tackles. Houston's linebackers, however, may be in trouble covering Forte out of the backfield and must put men in the box on running downs.
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
Schaub (2,715 passing yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) has started the last three games after missing the previous four because of injury. He was riding high during the four-game winning streak, then finished 19-of-36 for 255 yards and an interception with no touchdown passes last Sunday against a meager Oakland team. The slinging Virginia product has two interceptions and three touchdown passes over his last three contests. Tight end Owen Daniels (67 receptions, 2 TD) led the corps with 111 yards on seven catches. Stud wideout Andre Johnson (105 receptions, 1,427 yards, 6 TD) had an uncharacteristic two catches for 19 yards in the game while drawing the focus of the Raiders. He had a receiving touchdown in each of the three previous games and was coming an 11-catch, 207- yard showing in a win versus Tennessee. Johnson has seven games this season with at least 100 yards receiving for Houston's fourth-rated pass attack. Kevin Walter (59 receptions, 8 TD) leads the Texans in receiving touchdowns, is second in yards and third in receptions.
Brown (40 tackles, 6 sacks, 1INT) recorded the lone interception for the Bears Monday night, and his block on Crosby's field goal try kept the team optimistic about the future. He leads the Bears in sacks and had two tackles versus the Packers. His interception gave the Bears a takeaway in 24 straight games, extending the longest current streak in the NFL. Brown became the 13th different Bears player with an interception this season, the most since Chicago also had 13 in 1989. He and fellow end Adewale Ogunleye (57 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) must provide some pressure around the corners to disrupt Schaub's timing. Ogunleye, a once-dominant presence at the end spot, recorded five tackles on Monday for the Bears, who did not record a sack. Cornerback Corey Graham (84 tackles, 1 INT) had a team-high nine tackles and a pair of passes defensed versus the Packers, while safety and team interceptions leader Kevin Payne (85 tackles, 1 sack, 4 INT) ended with eight. In injury news for Chicago, safety Mike Brown (74 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) injured his leg late in the second quarter against Green Bay and did not return. The oft-injured veteran is questionable against the Texans and had six tackles before leaving on Monday.
Slaton (1,190 rushing yards, 8 TD) had ripped off four 100-yard rushing games in five weeks before taking on the Raiders. He ended with 66 yards on 18 carries and hasn't reached the end zone rushing in three straight games. The speedy and talented West Virginia product will be relied on heavily to spoil Chicago's hopes for a playoff berth. Slaton has been fortunate enough to run behind reliable guard Chester Pitts, center Chris Myers and tackle Duane Brown.
It will be tough sledding for Slaton against the NFL's fourth-ranked run defense of the Bears on Sunday. Packers running back Ryan Grant was able to run for just 61 yards on 25 carries against two bulky tackles in Tommie Harris (32 tackles, 5 sacks) and Anthony Adams (18 tackles). Both combined for five tackles and made life easier on linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Briggs (105 tackles, 0.5 sack, 3 INT), who leads the Bears in tackles and posted six and a pass defensed versus Green Bay. Briggs and Urlacher are speedy defenders who know what's at stake this week. Andre Johnson will have success across the middle if he survives some big hits, so the linebackers must be prepared. Even Slaton poses as a problem out of the backfield.
FANTASY FOCUS
If Houston's big three fantasy stars are clicking Sunday at Reliant Stadium, the Bears can pack their bags for the offseason by halftime. Schaub has been back at full strength for quite some time now and will be ready to air it out in the season finale. Andre Johnson will be on the receiving end of most of those Schaub attempts, and can put his last game in the back of his head. The NFL's leading receiver caught just two passes for 19 yards, both of which came during the fourth quarter. That should never happen, no matter how tough a secondary is playing. Finally, Slaton is ready to cap off an impressive rookie campaign on Sunday. The NFL Rookie of the Year candidate has been a model of consistency since Kubiak turned him loose. Texans kicker Kris Brown set two franchise records on Sunday, making the most field goals in one season (28) and scoring the most points in a season (117). As for the Bears, Forte is the best fantasy option from the Windy City. Hester has been decent, but not good enough to pose as a scoring threat. Chicago's defense is worthy of a starting nod as most fantasy leagues are wrapping up another season. Orton doesn't put up the type of numbers owners are fond of.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Bears have their backs to the wall and will feel the pressure against an improving Houston franchise as soon as they step off the plane. Chicago could take the Texans lightly early, since Houston has nothing to play for, and that's why the Bears will by playing from behind Sunday. A possible division title and a Wild Card berth are on the line, and Chicago may succumb to the pressure. It's not too often a star receiver such as Johnson is limited to 19 yards on a pair of catches in a game, so expect to hear his name a lot during the afternoon. Slaton will be the other name heard often, and the rookie is pegged to close out a successful season. The Texans are a team on the rise and would enjoy nothing more than to send the Bears back to the Windy City without a chance at another Super Bowl run.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Texans 24, Bears 20