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Coasting Giants Stand Between Vikes, NFC North Crown


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(My Sportsbook) - After squandering an opportunity to wrap up the NFC North title on their home field a week ago, the Minnesota Vikings have been given a second chance. To realize that goal, however, they'll have to knock off the team with the best record in the conference.

The Vikings will try once again to punch their ticket into the postseason when the defending world champion New York Giants invade the Metrodome for this Sunday's regular-season finale.

Minnesota failed to secure its first division crown since 2000 because of a sloppy effort against the playoff-bound Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. The Vikings fumbled seven times and lost four of them in the 24-17 loss, with two of the miscues ending drives deep in Atlanta territory and the other two being converted into 10 points by the Falcons.

Despite that disappointing result, Minnesota can still clinch the NFC North with a victory over the powerful Giants, who wrapped up the conference's No. 1 seed with a thrilling 34-28 overtime triumph over the formidable Carolina Panthers in Week 16. The Vikings can also take the division if Chicago loses its game at Houston on Sunday, but will be left out of the playoffs altogether if they fall to the Giants and the Bears defeat the Texans.

The NFC North champion will be the third seed in the upcoming conference tournament and will host a game in next weekend's Wild Card round.

At first glance, it seems as if the Vikings may have caught a break with New York winning last week, as the top-seeded Giants will have nothing riding on Sunday's matchup from a playoff perspective. Don't count on Tom Coughlin's troops taking the contest lightly, however.

New York entered its final game of the 2007 regular season locked into the NFC's No. 5 postseason seed with a road playoff test looming the following week. Coughlin made a highly-scrutinized decision not to rest his starters for that clash with New England, and fought the then-undefeated Patriots tooth and nail in a 38-35 loss.

Buoyed by that confidence-building performance, the Giants posted three straight victories on the road to reach Super Bowl XLII, where New York won a rematch with the favored Patriots to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Minnesota will not only be attempting to earn its first postseason appearance since 2004, but the club hopes to erase the memories of some late-year failures of the past. The Vikings were in control of the NFC's final Wild Card spot heading into the final two weeks of last season, but lost a pivotal home game to Washington in Week 16 and missed out on the playoffs. In 2005, Minnesota lost two of its last three tilts under then-head coach Mike Tice and finished one game back in the Wild Card standings.

The Vikings also have a potential quarterback controversy on their hands at the moment. Veteran Gus Frerotte had been the team's regular signal-caller for the majority of the year before hurting his back in a win at Detroit on December 7, opening the door for youngster Tarvaris Jackson to spark Minnesota to a crucial 35-14 road decision over NFC West champ Arizona the following week. Frerotte, who has gone 8-3 as a starter this season, was healthy enough to play against the Falcons but served as a backup to Jackson, who threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns but lost a pair of fumbles in the defeat.

Head coach Brad Childress announced on Monday that Jackson will be under center for Sunday's showdown.

SERIES HISTORY

Minnesota has an 11-8 edge in its all-time regular season series with the Giants, including a 41-17 rout when they visited Giants Stadium in Week 12 of last season. New York is 0-2 against the Vikes since claiming a 34-13 decision at the Metrodome in 2004. The Giants have won three straight in Minnesota since last losing there in 2001, and the road team has now won the past five games in the series overall.

The Giants lead the postseason series, 2-1, including a 41-0 home blowout of the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Championship. New York also won an NFC First-Round playoff tilt at home in 1993, and lost a 1997 NFC First-Round Playoff to the Vikes at Giants Stadium.

Coughlin is 2-3 against the Vikings during his career, including 1-2 since coming to New York in 2004. Childress is 1-0 against both Coughlin and the Giants as a head coach.

WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL

New York boasts the NFL's top rushing offense (158.9 ypg) and played to its strengths in last week's monumental win over Carolina. The Giants piled up a whopping 301 yards on the ground, the team's highest single-game total since 1950, with unheralded back Derrick Ward (948 rushing yards, 2 TD, 39 receptions) gashing the Panthers for a personal-best 215 yards on only 15 carries. Leading rusher Brandon Jacobs (1089 rushing yards, 15 TD, 6 receptions) added three short touchdown runs in his return from a one-game hiatus due to a sore knee, an injury that may keep the 264-pound punisher out for Sunday's test with the playoffs on the horizon. If that's the case, Ward will have a chance to give New York just the fourth pair of 1,000-yard rushers in league history. Having homefield advantage sewn up may also lead to a shortened day for quarterback Eli Manning (3119 passing yards, 21 TD, 10 INT), who's been sacked 11 times over the last two Sundays. Wideout Domenik Hixon (39 receptions, 1 TD), the team's leader with 71 receiving yards on four catches last week, is also a candidate for a reduced role after playing through foot and ankle issues recently. Manning does have an experienced backup in David Carr, the former No. 1 overall pick best known for flaming out in stints with Houston and Carolina.

The Giants' powerful ground attack will be going up against a Minnesota defense that is yielding a league-low 73 rushing yards per game but will be without Pro Bowl tackle Pat Williams (44 tackles, 1 sack) for a second straight week due to a fractured shoulder blade. The Vikings were able to withstand the loss of the accomplished stopper last week, however, as the club held Atlanta's Michael Turner, the NFL's second-leading rusher, to a pedestrian 70 yards on 19 carries. Williams is one of four Minnesota defenders named to this year's Pro Bowl, along with fellow tackle Kevin Williams (57 tackles, 8.5 sacks), end Jared Allen (50 tackles, 14.5 sacks) and cornerback Antoine Winfield (88 tackles, 2 INT, 2 sacks).

With New York's pass protection having been an issue as of late, Coughlin may be taking somewhat of a risk in letting Manning face a Vikings' squad that has compiled 43 sacks on the year. Allen's 57 1/2 sacks since 2004 is the most of any NFL player over that span, while counterpart Ray Edwards (50 tackles, 5 sacks) took down the Falcons' Matt Ryan twice in last week's loss. Winfield and four-time Pro Bowl safety Darren Sharper (63 tackles, 1 INT) are the headliners of a secondary that helped limit Atlanta to a mere 124 net passing yards this past Sunday.

WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL

Like the Giants, Minnesota is exceptionally proficient at running the football, having used a highly-skilled offensive line and the immense talents of league-leading rusher Adrian Peterson (1657 rushing yards, 9 TD, 21 receptions) to generate an average of 148.1 yards per game on the ground (3rd overall). Peterson has nine 100-yard outings to his credit this season but has also fumbled a league-high eight times, half of which have come over the past three weeks. Still, the second-year superstar's presence is an obvious boost to Jackson (817 passing yards, 8 TD, 1 INT), who has completed 65 percent of his passes and thrown for seven touchdowns without an interception since supplanting Frerotte. The developing quarterback has gained a nice rapport with tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (40 receptions, 7 TD), with the ex-Giant racking up career-highs of seven catches, 136 yards and two scores in last week's game. Wide receiver Bernard Berrian (44 receptions, 6 TD) is the leading receiver and best big-play threat for the Vikings' 27th-rated passing offense (182.5 ypg), although the speedster is dealing with a sprained left ankle that could hamper his effectiveness on Sunday.

New York owns the NFL's ninth-best rushing defense (94.9 ypg) but surrendered 158 yards and four touchdowns via the ground to the physical Panthers in Week 16, with Carolina's DeAngelo Williams becoming the second back to eclipse 100 yards on the Giants this year. The team is battling some health issues up front, as sturdy tackle Fred Robbins (33 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is dealing with a jammed shoulder and may be held out of the finale. The three-man linebacking corps lacks a standout, save for middle linebacker and leading tackler Antonio Pierce (91 tackles, 1.5 sacks).

There's a chance the Giants will be without a key member of the secondary for Sunday's matchup as well, with starting cornerback Aaron Ross (52 tackles, 3 INT) having suffered a concussion against the Panthers. If the second-year pro can't go, Kevin Dockery (36 tackles, 1 INT, 9 PD) will likely be slotted into a greater role for a defense that is allowing just 194.7 passing yards per game (7th overall). New York has two quality pass-rushing ends in Pro Bowler Justin Tuck (65 tackles, 12 sacks) and Mathias Kiwanuka (48 tackles, 8 sacks), but the pair will be chasing a very mobile quarterback in Jackson (143 rushing yards), who had a personal-best 76 yards on eight scrambles against the Falcons.

FANTASY FOCUS

With both teams firmly committed to establishing the run, it goes without saying to begin this segment by discussing the high-profile backs involved in this game. Peterson is a clear-cut must-use for the Vikings, especially against a Giants defense that's been a little more submissive against enemy ground games in recent weeks. New York has a slew of good running options to choose from, but Ward's recent breakout night and Jacobs' lingering injury concerns make the former the one to start this week. Keep in mind that Minnesota has the NFL's stingiest run defense, but also be aware that the Vikes won't have one of their best stoppers in uniform on Sunday. Both quarterbacks are extremely shaky choices, as Manning could be pulled at any moment in a meaningless game for the Giants and Jackson draws a step up in class from the defenses he's faced lately. Shiancoe has emerged as a most- worthy play at the tight end spot, but there's not a receiver on either side that doesn't carry some sort of risk. These are two good fantasy defenses, as the Vikings are adept at getting sacks and New York has the ability to force mistakes from a team that can be turnover-prone.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

There are a few unknown variables to consider here. First off, will the Giants take this game seriously with nothing tangible on the line? Second, are Jackson's recent performances a sign that the Childress project is beginning to come of age as a quarterback, or are they more a product of facing subpar competition? Coughlin may have provided a definitive answer to the first question when he stated publicly that his team is going to play to win, and New York's late-season approach to last year lends credence that the crusty head coach should be taken at his word. On the other hand, Jackson still has to prove that he can lead the Vikings to a win in a big spot such as this, and there's a very real chance the young signal-caller will struggle to match his level of play over the past few games against a defense as tough as New York's. The bottom line is that the Giants have more offensive balance than Minnesota and are less apt to make a costly mistake than Sunday's opponent, which means the Vikings may be doing a little scoreboard-watching in hopes of ending their postseason drought.

My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Giants 20, Vikings 17

December 24, 2008, at 11:56 AM ET
<-- Saints Can Send Panthers on a Tumble In Playoff Bracket
Backups Should Rule Day in Colts-Titans Matchup -->

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