(My Sportsbook) - The Denver Broncos will have one more opportunity to avoid arguably the greatest collapse in NFL history on Sunday night, when they travel to meet the San Diego Chargers in a game that will determine the AFC West champion.

After beating the Chiefs (24-17) on Dec. 7, the Broncos were 8-5 and held a three-game lead on the 5-8 and second-place Chargers with three games to play.

The magic number for Denver essentially stood at one, with the team needing only a win over either the Panthers or Bills, or a San Diego loss at either the Chiefs or Buccaneers, in order to raise the AFC West trophy and reach the postseason for the first time since 2005.

Instead, everything that could have gone wrong for Denver in Weeks 15 and 16 did, with losses to Carolina (30-10) and Buffalo (30-23) melding with San Diego wins over Kansas City (22-21) and Tampa Bay (41-24) to set up Sunday's winner-take-all matchup for the division title.

The Broncos still control their own fate, but will travel as an underdog to play a hot Chargers team looking for vindication after it appeared that San Diego would not measure up to immense preseason expectations.

Should Denver fall at Qualcomm Stadium, Mike Shanahan's club will become the first since NFL divisions were formed in 1967 to miss the playoffs after holding a three-game lead with three left to play.

Though the bigger story is the Broncos' potential collapse, credit is due the Chargers for helping to play their way back into NFL relevance.

In Week 15, San Diego erased a 21-10 Kansas City lead with less than two minutes to play in order to hold onto a shred of hope in the postseason race.

Then, last Sunday, the Chargers completely outclassed a desperate Tampa Bay team in its own building, with quarterback Philip Rivers sending a message with a 287-yard, four-touchdown passing performance just days after the league leader in passer rating and touchdown strikes was snubbed for the Pro Bowl.

Half of Rivers' TD passes in the win came during a decisive 21-point fourth- quarter for the Chargers.

With a win on Sunday, San Diego would become the first 8-8 division winner since the Cleveland Browns won the AFC Central with that mark in 1985, and would claim a third straight division crown and fourth in the past five years.

A victory against the Broncos would also help avenge a controversial 39-38 loss for San Diego at Denver in Week 2, a result aided by referee Ed Hochuli's errant whistle on what should have been ruled a Jay Cutler fumble in the closing moments. The call allowed the Broncos to maintain position and score the game-winning touchdown.

The victor in Sunday's matchup will host top Wild Card entry Indianapolis on Wild Card weekend.

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos lead the all-time series with San Diego, 53-43-1, including the aforementioned 39-38 decision at Invesco Field at Mile High in Week 2. Prior to that controversial win, Denver had lost four in a row in the series, including a 23-3 loss at Qualcomm Stadium on Christmas Eve of last year. The Broncos haven't won in San Diego since 2003, which also marked the last time they swept the home-and-home over the Bolts.

Shanahan is 20-10 in his career against San Diego, including a 3-0 mark while head coach of Oakland in 1988-89. The Chargers' Norv Turner is 3-6 against both Shanahan and the Broncos, with two of the losses dating to his tenure with Washington (1994-2000) and three coming while he was with Oakland (2004-05).

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Whether the Broncos are able to reach the postseason or not, 2008 should be a year best remembered for the play of Cutler (4210 passing yards, 24 TD, 16 INT), who has been the most dependable part of the team throughout the campaign. The Pro Bowler established a new single-season Broncos record for yardage in last week's loss to the Bills, and will set the team's single- season touchdown mark if he can equal his four-touchdown performance against the Chargers in Week 2. Wideouts Brandon Marshall (98 receptions, 6 TD) and Eddie Royal (80 receptions, 5 TD) have each been sensational at times, and tight ends Tony Scheffler (35 receptions, 2 TD) and Daniel Graham (30 receptions, 4 TD) have had their moments as well. Marshall caught 10 balls for 129 yards last Sunday. The Denver running game, meanwhile, has suffered through a nightmarish string of injuries that has resulted in no fewer than six players who have garnered carries this year being placed on season-ending injured reserve (Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Andre Hall, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain). Tatum Bell (163 rushing yards, 6 receptions), who had five carries for 20 yards against the Bills last Sunday, and ex-Panther Alex Haynes are the most likely Denver players to accrue carries on Sunday night. A fine Denver o-line led by rookie left tackle Ryan Clady has allowed just 12 sacks all year.

The fact that the Chargers' defensive Achilles' heel all year long has been pass defense should come as great news to Cutler, although it should be noted that the league's 31st-ranked pass defense (242.8 yards per game) made three huge plays against the Tampa Bay passing game last week. Linebacker Stephen Cooper (92 tackles, 4 INT, 1.5 sacks) and rookie d-back Antoine Cason (65 tackles, 2 INT) both had interceptions of Jeff Garcia in that game, with the latter going the other way for a 59-yard touchdown, while the team also had a strip-and-fumble-recovery of an Antonio Bryant catch in the win. Antonio Cromartie (60 tackles, 2 INT) and Quentin Jammer (86 tackles, 2 INT) figure to match up with Marshall and Royal this week, with safeties Eric Weddle (116 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Clinton Hart (61 tackles) lending support over the top. When Denver chooses to run it, nose tackle Jamal Williams (55 tackles, 1.5 sacks), ends Luis Castillo (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Igor Olshansky (28 tackles, 2 sacks), and Cooper will lead a group that ranks a respectable 11th in the league against the rush (103.4 yard per game). Williams and Castillo combined for 10 tackles in Tampa Bay last Sunday.

WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL

Rivers (3802 passing yards, 11 INT) carved up Tampa Bay's Cover-2 scheme last Sunday, strengthening his lead in NFL passer rating (104.0) and moving into sole possession of the league's touchdown pass lead (32) ahead of former teammate Drew Brees. As usual, Rivers' top targets were tight end Antonio Gates (57 receptions, 8 TD) and wideout Vincent Jackson (57 receptions, 7 TD) Gates caught half of Rivers' touchdown passes on a four-catch, 43-yard day, while Jackson continued his breakout campaign with seven grabs for 111 yards on the afternoon. Meanwhile, though running back LaDainian Tomlinson (1014 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 9 TD) is by all accounts having the weakest season of his career, the future Hall-of-Famer did manage to cross 1,000 yards for the eighth straight year on a 21-carry, 90-yard day. Tomlinson rushed just 10 times for 26 yards at Denver in Week 2. The Chargers will likely give a few more touches to backup Darren Sproles (215 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 4 TD) this week, after Sproles' 32-yard catch-and-run for a TD in Tampa Bay last week helped break the contest open. An above-average San Diego o-line has surrendered 23 sacks on the season.

Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey (37 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) finally returned to the lineup last week after a seven-game absence due to a torn groin muscle, but it didn't make much of a difference for a punchless group that allowed 30 points to the usually offensively-challenged Bills. Bailey had a game-high nine tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble in the loss, and he and fellow CB Dre' Bly (60 tackles, 2 INT) continue to be the most reliable aspect of a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in every meaningful statistical category on defense. The group attempting to slow Tomlinson and Sproles is ranked 27th in the league against the run (136.5 yards per game), and gave up 113 total yards to Buffalo's Fred Jackson last Sunday. Linebackers Jamie Winborn (90 tackles) and D.J. Williams (84 tackles, 2.5 sacks) are the team's most frequent tacklers, and tackles Dewayne Robertson (21 tackles) and Marcus Thomas (30 tackles, 1 INT) are occasional difference-makers up front. End Elvis Dumervil (23 tackles, 5 sacks) leads the club in sacks, but has not managed one over his past two games.

FANTASY FOCUS

Those playing in fantasy championships this week would be wise to use Broncos stars such as Cutler, Marshall, and Royal, all of whom figure to put up numbers against the Chargers' soft pass-defending group. There isn't a Denver rusher you can use with confidence this week, and the team's tight ends have been too hit-or-miss to rely on either. The same goes for Broncos scatter-leg kicker Matt Prater, and anyone using the woeful Denver defense is simply a fool.

Rivers has been a reliable fantasy quarterback and figures to have a strong day against the Broncos, with top targets Gates and Jackson the main beneficiaries of his exploits. Tomlinson's poor year has been well-chronicled, but chances are he won't be shut down by the Denver defense and merits a start. You can also feel free to go with kicker Nate Kaeding, but probably best not to get near the San Diego defense this week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Presumably, the Broncos have now woken up. They obviously expected San Diego to bail them out with a loss these past two weeks, and now that everything that could have gone wrong has to set up this showdown, you would think that Denver will come to play in an effort to avoid being forever associated with the phrase "historic collapse." The trouble now, besides the nebulous notion of "momentum" that doesn't seem to favor them, is that the Broncos have less talent than the Chargers and are going to need some luck in order to bail themselves out at the 11th hour. At the same time, you can't count on San Diego to drink just because it has been led to the banks of a vast lake. This team had made shooting itself in the foot into something of an art form over the fist 12 games of the season, and there's every reason to expect it will allow the Broncos to hang around throughout this contest. In a game that figures to be a shootout, though, look for the better-balanced, rejuvenated Chargers to make a big play when it counts and walk away with a once-unlikely AFC West crown.

My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Chargers 34, Broncos 31