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Home Finale vs. Saints is Lions' Next-to-Last Chance


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(My Sportsbook) - While Drew Brees has fallen off his pace for the single- season passing yard record, he might be able to make up some ground this weekend. Brees and his New Orleans Saints visit Detroit's Ford Field this Sunday to take on the Lions, who have just two games left to get their first win of the season.

Brees, selected to his third career Pro Bowl this week, leads the NFL with 4,332 passing yards and with a pair of 400-yard passing games this year, it seemed like a lock that over the season's final weeks he would challenge Dan Marino's league record of 5,084 passing yards set in 1984. However, the 29- year-old has totaled just 462 yards through the air over the last two weeks, leaving him 752 yards shy of Marino's mark.

Brees (28 TD, 16 INT) does face a Lions team that is ranked 21st in the league against the pass this weekend. New Orleans will then close its season against a Carolina squad that currently ranks 12th in pass defense.

A shot at Marino's record is about all the Saints have to root for now, as their 27-24 overtime setback to the Chicago Bears last Thursday set off a series of events that eliminated them from postseason contention.

New Orleans allowed Chicago to return the opening kickoff to the end zone to dig itself an early hole, and fell behind by a 21-7 margin by halftime. The Saints rallied with 17 unanswered points on a 42-yard touchdown run by Pierre Thomas and a 30-yard field goal by Garrett Hartley before Brees' 11-yard touchdown pass to Marques Colston put them ahead.

The Saints defense failed to hold, though, as the Bears' Robbie Gould booted a game-tying 28-yard field goal as time expired and later connected on the winning 35-yard kick.

That loss dropped New Orleans to 7-7 on the season and just 1-6 on the road.

New Orleans will also try to avoid becoming the first team to loss to the Lions this year. Detroit held its own in last week's game versus Indianapolis, but ultimately fell to the Colts by a 31-21 score.

That loss dropped the team to 0-14 and was its 21st setback in the last 22 games dating back to last year. That run includes setbacks in all seven of its home games this year.

Detroit is the first team since the 1980 Saints to lose the first 14 games of a season. Should the Lions fail to get a win this weekend in the dome, their final chance will come at frigid Lambeau Field against Green Bay. That isn't really a prime location to avoid becoming the first team in NFL history to go 0-16. In fact, no NFL team has even gone 0-15 before.

Dan Orlovsky returned from a five-week absence to start versus the Colts last weekend and threw for 233 yards with a touchdown in place of the injured Daunte Culpepper (shoulder). Orlovsky will start this game as well.

One bright spot for the Lions has been the play of Jason Hanson, who matched an NFL record when he connected on a 51-yard field goal versus the Colts. Hanson is a perfect 8-for-8 from 50-plus yards this season, matching the mark for most field goals in a season from that distance. He is also the only player in league history to make six or more field goals from beyond 50 yards without a miss.

His 51-yard boot was his 41st career kick of 50-plus yards, also an NFL record.

The Lions play their final home game of the season on Sunday and will try to avoid going winless as the host for the first time since an 0-7 mark in 1942.

SERIES HISTORY

The Lions have a 9-8-1 lead in their all-time series with the Saints, breaking a deadlock in the series with a 13-12 nail-biter in the most recent meeting, in San Antonio during the 2005 campaign. Detroit has now won three straight in the series since New Orleans' last prevailed over the Lions, at home in 1997. The Saints are 0-1 in Detroit since last winning there in 1992.

The Lions' Rod Marinelli and Saints' Sean Payton will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective team, for the first time as head coaches.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

New Orleans has rode the arm of Brees since he came to the club prior to the 2006 season, and for the most part, it has paid off. The Purdue product has gone over 4,000 yards passing in all three of his seasons with the Saints and has guided them to the top-ranked offense in the NFL (401.6 yards per game) in addition to the league's best passing attack (304.2 ypg). Brees continues to spread the ball around, with Thomas (548 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 11 total TD) emerging as a big threat out of the backfield. Thomas has taken over the role vacated by a hobbled Reggie Bush, who missed four games earlier this year due to a knee injury that also limited him versus the Bears. Bush (404 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 6 total TD) underwent an MRI on his left knee after the game and landed on injured reserve on Wednesday. Thomas, meanwhile, led the Saints with 87 yards on 22 carries and also had a team-high seven catches. He totaled 59 receiving yards as well and hauled in a touchdown pass in addition to his rushing score. Thomas has scored in five straight games, including three multi-TD games, and a touchdown this weekend would make him just the second player in team history to score in six consecutive weeks. In addition to Thomas, the Lions can't forget about wideouts Colston (31 receptions, 2 TD) and Lance Moore (67 receptions, 8 TD). Colston made six catches for 84 yards against Chicago, with Moore adding five for 27 yards. The Saints also have two very capable tight ends in Billy Miller (38 receptions, 1 TD) and Jeremy Shockey (45 receptions).

While Brees has been prone to throwing interceptions, as most pass-heavy offenses are, he shouldn't have too much to worry versus the Lions. Detroit has picked off just four passes this year, with two of them coming versus Minnesota on December 7. Peyton Manning threw for 318 yards on 28-of-37 passing versus the Lions last weekend, and the Lions have allowed over 400 yards of offense in seven games this year, including 421 by the Colts. Brees should also have plenty of time to make plays, since the Lions have notched only four sacks in the last three weeks after posting seven against Tampa Bay on November 23. Linebacker Ernie Sims (97 tackles, 1.5 sacks) had the Lions' lone sack against Indianapolis and posted 12 tackles. That was only second on the team, though, as fellow linebacker Paris Lenon (106 tackles, 1.5 sacks) had 16 stops. Safety Daniel Bullocks (83 tackles), twin brother of the Saints' Josh Bullocks, and linebacker Ryan Nece (61 tackles, 1.5 sacks) each had eight tackles. Detroit's defense, already without defensive linemen Cory Redding (knee) and Jared DeVries (hand) in addition to safety Gerald Alexander (neck), lost another two players when corner Keith Smith (groin) and safety Dwight Smith (ankle) landed on injured reserve this week. The Lions are ranked 31st in total defense at 389.6 yards per game and 32nd against the run, while their 444 points allowed is last in the NFL.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Orlovsky (1266 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT) gets the call under center this weekend not just because of Culpepper's injury, but also because of is ability to play it safe with the ball. That is something the Lions need, as they are minus-seven in the takeaway/giveaway category. Orlovsky completed 23-of-34 pass attempts last weekend and connected with Calvin Johnson (65 receptions, 10 TD) on a 33-yard touchdown play. Johnson is by far the Lions' best offensive playmaker, and the club needs him to be involved if they have a chance at beating the Saints. Johnson ended with nine catches for 110 yards, giving him a touchdown in eight of his last 10 games and 1,165 yards receiving on the year. Johnson is averaging 17.9 yards per catch and will try to join Herman Moore as the only other Lion to post 70 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in the same season. Running back Kevin Smith (773 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 6 TD) was the Lions' second-leading receiver last week with six catches for 31 yards, while wideout John Standeford had four catches for 36 yards. Smith had 88 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in the loss, upping Detroit's run game to 79.1 yards per game this year (31st overall). The Lions did an excellent job protecting Orlovsky versus the Colts, as he wasn't sacked once. The Lions have allowed 49 sacks on the year, third-most in the NFL.

The Saints will try to make life uncomfortable for Orlovsky, with pressure likely coming from the outside by defensive ends Bobby McCray (27 tackles, 6 sacks) and Will Smith (57 tackles, 3 sacks). New Orleans is near the bottom of the NFC with 25 sacks and managed just one -- by defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (25 tackles, 3 sacks) -- last Thursday. The Saints did post two interceptions versus the Bears, getting one each from linebacker Scott Fujita (68 tackles, 2 INT) and safety Josh Bullocks (22 tackles). Fujita led the team with eight tackles against Chicago, while linebacker Jonathan Vilma (111 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had seven to go along with a fumble recovery. The Saints' run defense held rookie back Matt Forte to just 34 yards on 11 carries and gave up just 55 yards in all on the ground. The Saints rank 16th against the run this season (108.7 ypg), but have allowed 226.9 yards per game through the air and their 353 points allowed is 25th in the NFL. Corner Jason David (19 tackles) leads the team with four interceptions, getting three of those in the past four games. New Orleans has held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in back-to-back weeks.

FANTASY FOCUS

With Week 16 being the championship round in most fantasy leagues, Brees owners hope that he gives it 100 percent in such a favorable matchup. Thomas, Colston and Moore are all must-starts due to the Lions' inability to keep teams off the scoreboard. In fact, even Miller and Shockey are both decent plays at the tight end spot. Brees and Thomas should put up some monster numbers and help bring home quite a few fantasy titles this weekend. Avoid using the Saints' defense, however, just because of the matchup. Detroit has a lot to play for and will likely do some damage against New Orleans' stop unit.

Johnson and Hanson should both be in starting lineups this weekend, while Kevin Smith is also a good play. Outside of that, Orlovsky is a subpar start at quarterback, although not the worst option out there, while no other Detroit player is even worthy of a bench spot. Detroit's defense will also be lit up on Sunday, but it is unlikely that unit is anywhere but on the waiver wire.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Many would think that the Saints have little to play for this weekend, having been eliminated from postseason contention. However, New Orleans is about to teach some people a few things, mainly that pride will go a long way. At this point, no team wants to be the one that lost to the Lions, and it is just hard to see that happening with New Orleans' explosive offense. If Detroit is going to get a win this year, it will have to do it in Green Bay next weekend. The Saints win this meaningless game big.

My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Saints 35, Lions 20

December 19, 2008, at 12:38 PM ET
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