Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Even though Florida and Alabama will meet for just the third time this decade, the two teams have played a record five SEC Championship Games, with the Gators getting the best of the Crimson Tide three games to two. However, the last matchup took place way back in 1999, a 34-7 Alabama victory as a seven-point underdog.
Can the Crimson Tide respond once again getting a bundle of points? The history of this series says yes.
In 2006, the year they won the BCS Championship over Ohio State, the Gators were 16-point favorites in a September 30 matchup over a Tide squad that ended the season below the .500 mark at 6-7. Florida had to regroup from an early 10-0 deficit to win 28-13, scoring half of its points in the final seven minutes of the game.
The two teams had also met the year before with both clubs coming into the game undefeated at 4-0. The 15th-ranked Crimson Tide was getting three points at home, in the first meeting between the two schools since the 27-point Alabama romp in the '99 SEC Championship Game.
Alabama quarterback Brodie Croyle led the Tide to an easy 31-3 victory, completing 14-of-17 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Incidentally, the Tide remained unbeaten that year until the final two games of the regular season, when LSU and Auburn both got the best of 'Bama as favorites.
In 1999, Florida was favored twice over the Crimson Tide and couldn't win either game straight up. Alabama prevailed as a 16-point underdog in Gainesville, 40-39, and 34-7 as a seven-point dog at the Georgia Dome. The year before, the Gators were able to win the game, 16-10, but couldn't cover as 17- point favorites.
Overall, Alabama has won three of the past five meetings, but more importantly, the Tide is a perfect 5-0 ATS. Past history hints at an Alabama cover, but don't wager on Nick Saban's crew solely due to those numbers. Florida has arguably been the best team in the country over the last two-thirds of the season, and could very easily win this game by at least 17 points.
MORE NUMBERS TO PONDER
Recent SEC Championship contests have been a failure for the betting choice as only one favorite has covered the last four years. On the other hand, the East representative is 3-0-1 ATS in those matchups.
Alabama has been winning with defense all season, but even more so the last five games, allowing just 37 points while covering all five. The number one- ranked team in the nation is also 5-1-1 to the under in its last seven. Still, 'Bama is not just a defensive machine as the team racked up 41 points at Georgia and 34 against Clemson in the only two games as an underdog this year.
The Gators, meanwhile, are 9-1-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. The offense has been on fire averaging 51 ppg in the last six lined games with all six going over the total. Nonetheless, their defense has been an overlooked area as the unit has given up an average of 10 ppg in its last five vs. FBS competition.
THE NEW TOP 10 AND THE UPDATED RECORD
Florida and Oklahoma are the clear top two in the latest Jeff Frank Top 10, heading into this weekend's conference title games. If both come out on the winning side, there will be no disputing the BCS Championship selections.
Here are the new rankings:
1) Florida, 117; 2) Oklahoma, 112.5; 3) USC, 109.5; 4) Texas, 108; 5) Penn State, 103.5; 6) Alabama, 101.5; 7) Ohio State, 100.5; 8) Boise State, 100; 9) Texas Tech, 99; 10-T) TCU and Ole Miss, 98.5
The overall record now stands at 55-54 with a 25-20 mark in key plays (1-3 last week, W - NC State, L - Maryland, Mississippi State and Auburn) and a 30-34 record in secondary selections (3-2 last week, W - Rice, Oklahoma and Georgia Tech, L - Fresno State and Duke).
PLAYS OF THE WEEK
Arizona State has won the last three games against Arizona, but the Wildcats are the heavy favorites in the 82nd meeting between the two rivals. That's quite a shock, since the 'Cats have lost four of their last six and have defeated just one team with a winning record all season.
Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Arizona is guaranteed its first bowl appearance since 1998's Holiday Bowl victory over Nebraska. Even though this is a huge rivalry game, the fact that the Wildcats will be playing one more game after this one might take some of the zing out of their energy level. And one has to wonder how well the team will respond after losing a heartbreaker to Oregon State in its previous game.
On the other hand, Arizona State is sky-high after a three-game winning streak. Miraculously, the Sun Devils could go bowling after a devastating 2-6 start. Their defense has been spectacular of late, not having allowed a touchdown in the last 10 quarters. It's true they've played the three worst teams in the league in those games, but this is a "D" that has held every opponent except for Oregon and Washington to below their season scoring average, and that includes games against USC, California and Georgia.
Take Arizona State to pull the upset.
Another club that has made an incredible turnaround is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights began the season with just one win in their first six games. Eight weeks later they are 6-5 and in need of one more victory to assure themselves a berth in the postseason.
Louisville has gone the opposite direction with four straight defeats after a 5-2 start. The Cardinals secondary is injured beyond repair, as half the starting unit will not be able to suit up on Thursday night. Add in the fact that Mike Teel has thrown 11 touchdown passes in his past three Big East games, and Rutgers could blow this one open real fast.
Take the Scarlet Knights minus the points.
More than half the teams in the SEC are averaging 22 points per game or less, a far cry from last year when only three clubs were in that very same boat. Florida tops the conference with 46 per game while Alabama is next at 32. Georgia, Ole Miss and LSU round out the list of just five clubs at 23 points or more.
It's interesting to note that Alabama and Florida are ranked first and second in scoring defense as well, but are their defenses really that good or are the bulk of the league's offenses horrific?
Alabama has allowed just seven points per game in the nine games that do not include Georgia, Ole Miss and LSU. In the three games against those clubs, the Tide has allowed 71 points for an average of 24. Imagine what the Gators will do this Saturday considering the least amount of points they've scored in their last seven games is 42.
It's entirely conceivable that Florida will score no less than 32 points. If that's the case, the least amount needed from Alabama for the over is three touchdowns, a number both LSU and Ole Miss reached against the Gators. In addition, even though Georgia only compiled 10 points in its 49-10 loss, the Bulldogs still tallied a shade below 400 yards of total offense with 398.
Take the OVER.
