Toronto, ON (My Sportsbook) -
EDMONTON ESKIMOS (10-8) AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (8-10)
DATE & TIME: Saturday, November 8th, 1 p.m. (et).
GAME NOTES: Time to clear up a few things here.
First, for those not understanding how Edmonton is playing Winnipeg in the East division final, here's why.
The Eskimos finished fourth in the West Division standings but their record was better than that of the Toronto Argonauts (4-14), the third-place team in the East. So, Edmonton qualifies for the playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and therefore heads to Winnipeg (8-10), the second-place finisher.
At first glance, this game would appear to be a huge mismatch. However, Edmonton's biggest challenge this season has been the run game and that's worth noting because the weather forecast for this game is calling for freezing temperatures and gusting winds, which could create challenges in the passing game.
Edmonton had the CFL's best passing attack, averaging 335 yards per game as quarterback Ricky Ray was the league's top passer with 5,663 yards. The receiving corps, even with the loss this season of star slotback Jason Tucker to a neck injury, still featured the likes of Kamau Peterson (101 catches, 1,317 yards, four touchdowns), Kelly Campbell (54 catches, 1,223 yards, seven touchdowns) and Fred Stamps (50 catches, 751 yards, six touchdowns).
However, the Eskimos also had the CFL's worst run game, averaging 85 yards per contest. A.J. Harris and Calvin McCarty split the tailback duties this season, with Harris running for 557 yards while McCarty had 490 yards.
Winnipeg will feature a two-headed rushing attack with Fred Reid and Joe Smith. Reid led the team in rushing with 709 yards and averaged seven yards per carry. Smith, acquired earlier this season in a trade with B.C., was the CFL's rushing leader last year but had just 617 yards this year.
Smith and Reid offer a different approach for the Bombers. The 6-foot-2, 228- pound Smith is a tough inside runner while the 5-foot-8, 185-pound Reid has the quickness and speed to not only be effective outside but also turn a potentially small gain into a big play.
An effective run game will also benefit Winnipeg given its tenuous quarterback situation. Veteran Kevin Glenn gets the start but backup Ryan Dinwiddie won't play due to injury. That means if Glenn is hurt, the Bombers will look to either Bryan Randall or former Hawaii star Timmy Chang to go under center in the season's more important game of the year.
When Winnipeg goes to the air, it will do so with three 1,000-yard receivers in tow. Romby Bryant (65 passes, 1,206 yards, nine touchdowns) is the club's leading pass catcher, with Terrence Edwards (76 caches, 1,010 yards, seven touchdowns) and Derick Armstrong (81 catches, 1,010 yards, five touchdowns) also being reliable targets.
And there's also Milt Stegall, who only had 29 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns but is the most prolific receiver in CFL history.
The numbers: Edmonton was 3-6 on the road this year but 5-3 against East Division teams. Winnipeg was 5-4 at home but 2-6 versus Western competition.
Keys to the game: The Bombers can't afford to get into a shootout with the Eskimos, so establishing the run game and a possession-type game plan will be very important. Again, the weather could end up working in Winnipeg's favor.
Swirling winds could also have an impact on the kicking game, which has been a sore point all season for Winnipeg. Alexis Serna finished the season converting 34-of-51 field goals, which translates into a sub-standard 66.7 percent efficiency mark. By comparison, Edmonton veteran Noel Prefontaine hit on 35-of-46 attempts (76.1 percent) and has played often at Canad Inns Stadium to know how to deal with the conditions.
But Edmonton could also help itself immensely if it can establish its own run game. That would only serve to make Ray that much more dangerous because he could use play action to freeze the linebackers and give him a bit more time to find the open receiver downfield.
The two teams split the season series, with the home club winning each time. The Blue Bombers finished the regular season winning six of their final eight games to secure second in the East Division.
Edmonton lost four of its final six regular season games but did end the season on a positive note, downing Montreal 37-14. Forget that the Alouettes rested a number of starters, the fact is in the Eskimos minds they finished up beating a quality opponent and take that confidence into this contest.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Edmonton 31, Winnipeg 27.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (11-7) AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (12-6)
DATE & TIME: Saturday, November 8th, 4:30 p.m. (et).
GAME NOTES: The B.C. Lions have no one to blame but themselves for having to go on the road for the CFL playoffs.
B.C. could've secured second place and home field advantage for the West Division semifinal with a win last week against a Calgary Stampeders team that had already cemented top spot in the standings. But the Lions dropped a 41-30 decision to the Stamps to finish third behind the Roughriders (12-6).
Riders quarterback Michael Bishop will make only his second career playoff start, and it would be understandable if he'd rather forget about his last time under center in the postseason. Bishop was 21-of-45 for 376 yards with Toronto in last year's 19-11 East Division loss to Winnipeg. Take away a 90- yard completion to Arland Bruce III, and Bishop's passing numbers take an even bigger hit.
Bishop also threw four interceptions in Saskatchewan's season-ending 45-38 road win over Toronto last week, but successfully convinced head coach Ken Miller to keep him in the game after firing his last pick.
But Bishop also ran for three touchdowns against his former team, spearheading a running attack that accounted for 173 yards and all six of Saskatchewan's touchdowns. And the Riders did it without tailback Wes Cates, who ran for just 29 yards before suffering an ankle injury in the first half and didn't return.
Cates is scheduled to suit up for this game, and that's good news for Saskatchewan considering he was second among CFL rushers with 1,229 yards.
B.C. has injury issues of its own. Quarterback Buck Pierce has battled through a wonky ankle all season, a credit to him that he was able to pass for nearly 3,000 yards with 19 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. If Pierce further aggravates the injury, backup Jarious Jackson will be waiting in the wings.
Running back Charles Roberts is done for the year due to injury, but rookie Stefan Logan did run for 889 yards and average a solid 7.3 yards per carry this season.
The numbers: Saskatchewan was tied for the CFL's best home record at 7-2 but was 5-5 within the West Division. B.C. was 5-4 on the road but 4-6 against divisional foes.
Keys to the game: B.C.'s defense was the CFL's most heralded this season after leading the CFL with 68 sacks, 23 coming from defensive end Cameron Wake alone. But tackle Aaron Hunt was second in the league with 11 sacks, with end Brent Johnson tied for third with 10.
However, Saskatchewan's defense was the CFL's toughest to play against, allowing a league-low 354 yards per game. And the unit is especially though at home, where it feeds off the energy of its rabid Mosaic Stadium gathering.
The Riders needed just 35 minutes to sell this game out, a testament to its diehard supporters.
The Riders featured the CFL's second-ranked pass defense, allowing 266 yards per game but the Lions had a league-high 27 interceptions, including nine from safety Barron Simpson, who finished tied for the league lead.
The fact remains the Lions' defense has the ability to get pressure on the quarterback, which isn't great news for the Riders because when pushed, Bishop has shown a tendency to make bad decisions and rely too heavily on his strong passing arm to force the ball into coverage. There's no way Saskatchewan wins this game if Bishop throws four interceptions like he did against Toronto.
The key for Saskatchewan is Bishop being patient and taking what's given to him. If the big play is there, then take a shot. But if it's not, then make the safe play and keep the drive going. The running game, and an effective short passing attack are just two ways to counter a pressure defense.
Despite being the road team, B.C. won the season series against Saskatchewan and did win at Mosaic Stadium earlier this year. But a tough Riders defense feeding off an enthusiastic home crowd gives the home team the slightest of edges.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Saskatchewan 27, B.C. 24.
Last week's record: 3-1; Season record: 41-31.