(My Sportsbook) - The
Denver Broncos will enter their Week 9 test with the
Miami Dolphins as a first-place team. The visiting Fins, meanwhile, visit Invesco Field at Mile High as a last-place club. Strangely enough, neither status seems to fit quite right.
Denver comes into Sunday's test at 4-3 and up a game-plus on the second-place San Diego Chargers (3-5) in the AFC West, but it is not the era of good feelings in proximity of the Rocky Mountains.
The Broncos have lost three of four games since a 3-0 start, and their Week 8 bye was preceded by a humiliating 41-7 loss to the New England Patriots in a Monday night game played out before a national television audience. Adding insult to injury (or perhaps the other way around), a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every meaningful statistical category lost its best player, perennial All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey for 4-6 weeks due to a groin tear. Bailey's brother, starting outside linebacker Boss Bailey, was lost for the season due to a knee injury in the same game.
On the bright side, however, Denver is getting healthier on offense.
Quarterback Jay Cutler (finger) has experienced no lingering effects from the injury that hampered him in New England. Slot receiver Brandon Stokley (concussion) appears set to return after a one-game absence, and tight end Tony Scheffler (groin) could also be back following two missed contests. In addition to those players, ex-Patriot Chad Jackson was signed to bolster the receiving corps this past Monday.
The running game has also received a shot in the arm, with promising rookie Ryan Torain (elbow) set to return after going down in the preseason, while Michael Pittman (ribs) and Selvin Young (groin) also appear to be healing.
Meanwhile, the visiting Dolphins don't have the look of a last-place team, but that is where the AFC East standings say they reside. The Fins (3-4) are two games back of first-place co-occupants the Patriots (5-2) and Bills (5-2), and one game back of the Jets (4-3), but Miami is also 2-1 within the division and owns impressive wins over New England (38-13), San Diego (17-10), and Buffalo (25-16) already this season.
Last week, Tony Sparano's squad rebounded from a 16-7 third-quarter deficit, scoring the game's final 18 points to down the Bills.
Miami already has two more wins this season than during last year's 1-15 debacle, and will look to move back to .500 with a triumph in Denver.
SERIES HISTORY
Miami has a 10-3-1 edge in its all-time regular season series with the Broncos, including a 34-10 rout in the most recent matchup, in South Florida in Week 1 of the 2005 season. Denver won the previous matchup, a 20-17 home decision in 2004. Miami last won in Denver in 2002.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams met once in the postseason, with the Broncos pasting the Dolphins by a 38-3 count in a 1998 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan is 2-6 against Miami in his career, including a loss while at the helm of the then-Los Angeles Raiders in 1988. Miami's Sparano will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL
Quarterback Chad Pennington (1710 passing yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) has been pretty much terrific thus far in 2008, posting a triple-digit passer rating (100.5) through his first seven games in a Miami uniform and making capable NFL receivers out of Greg Camarillo (32 receptions, 1 TD) and Ted Ginn (27 receptions). Pennington threw for a season-high 314 yards on 22-of-30 passing with a touchdown in last week's win, while Ginn had his coming-out party against the Bills, torching a good Buffalo secondary for seven catches and 175 yards. Tight ends Anthony Fasano (19 receptions, 3 TD) and David Martin (18 receptions, 1 TD) have been a major part of the offense this year, with Fasano catching Pennington's lone touchdown pass last week. The running game has been inconsistent, but Ronnie Brown (406 rushing yards, 7 TD) remains a home-run threat, especially when the team uses the "Wildcat" scheme, and Ricky Williams (267 yards, 2 TD) can still bring the lumber as well. Brown was held to 43 yards on 14 carries by Buffalo, but Williams scored his second touchdown of the year. The Miami o-line has allowed a modest 11 sacks on the season.
With Champ Bailey on the shelf, pressure will be on the three-man cornerbacking trio of Dre' Bly (28 tackles), Karl Paymah (9 tackles), and rookie Jack Williams (4 tackles) to offer some resistance to the Miami passing game. Safeties Marquand Manuel (43 tackles), Marlon McCree (25 tackles), and Calvin Lowry (13 tackles) will also have to help. That group will need major assistance from a pass rush that has managed 17 sacks on the year, with ends Elvis Dumervil (10 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ebenezer Ekuban (12 tackles, 3 sacks) most likely to break through to Pennington. If Denver can get that problem solved, the next task will be shoring up a run defense that ranks 30th in the NFL (154.6 yards per game). A switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme will put additional pressure on tackles Marcus Thomas (19 tackles, 1 INT) and Dewayne Robertson (8 tackles) up front, with linebackers D.J. Williams (69 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Nate Webster (57 tackles, 2 sacks) attempting to make plays behind them. Williams had a game-high 16 tackles against the Patriots last time out. The Broncos are 30th in NFL total defense (394.6 yards per game), 29th in scoring defense (27.9 points per game), and 28th against the pass (240 yards per game) as Week 9 begins.
WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL
Cutler (1862 passing yards, 13 TD, 7 INT) was clearly hampered by his finger injury during the Week 7 loss in New England, throwing for a season-low 168 yards and struggling to deliver the ball downfield. The third-year-pro has declared himself healed for Sunday, however, and the possible presence of Stokley (24 receptions, 2 TD) and/or Scheffler (12 receptions, 2 TD) will only help him. Brandon Marshall (49 receptions, 3 TD) and Eddie Royal (39 receptions, 2 TD) will remain Cutler's top two targets, after combining for 15 of Denver's 19 catches and 148 of its 187 receiving yards in New England. Who will do the running for the Broncos is anyone's guess. Michael Pittman (316 rushing yards, 4 TD, 8 receptions) seems the most likely candidate after rushing 20 times for 88 yards against the Patriots, but if his rib injury limits him, the rookie Torain (Arizona State) could stand to see significant carries. Shanahan praised Torain's abilities before the fifth-round pick suffered a serious elbow injury in early August.
Miami's ability to slow the Denver passing attack will rest heavily on its ability to get to Cutler, and that means outside linebacker and Colorado State product Joey Porter (27 tackles, 10.5 sacks) will need a big day. Porter leads the NFL in sacks in 2008, and has 8.5 over his past five games. The Dolphins secondary hasn't been a drain on the team, but neither has it made a wealth of big plays. Miami defensive backs have combined for just two of the team's four interceptions this year, with cornerback Will Allen (23 tackles) providing one of those off of Buffalo's Trent Edwards last week. Safety Yeremiah Bell (55 tackles) is Miami's leading tackler. The Dolphins run-stopping group allowed 119 rushing yards to the Bills last week, but offseason additions like nose tackle Jason Ferguson (8 tackles) and inside linebacker Akin Ayodele (35 tackles, 1 INT) have helped transform the front seven into a generally solid unit. Holdover and inside linebacker Channing Crowder (53 tackles) is second on the team in tackles, and had five stops and a fumble recovery versus the Bills.
FANTASY FOCUS
Some weeks, you'll hesitate on whether to start members of Miami's offensive corps, but this is not one of those weeks. Give the check mark to Pennington, Brown, Camarillo, Ginn, tight ends Martin and Fasano, and kicker Dan Carpenter. Basically, start everyone but the Dolphins defense, because the Broncos are not capable of holding down anyone's attack at this stage.
On the other side, look for Cutler to bounce back from his injury-affected performance against New England, especially against a Miami defense that doesn't cover particularly well or force a lot of turnovers. Marshall and Royal are must-starts, and if you're sure Stokley and Scheffler will be in the lineup, they'll be decent plays as well. Avoid any of the Denver running backs, both because it's not clear who will be carrying the ground load and because Miami is decent against the run. Kicker Matt Prater is another Bronco who is worth starting.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Given the state of its defense, Denver had better get used to scoring a lot of points if it wants to win games. Luckily, the Broncos have the talent to do so, and should have a compliant opponent this week. Miami is not a great coverage team, so as long as Denver can get Porter blocked on a regular basis, Cutler is in line for a huge day. On the other side of the ball, you can say the same of Pennington and the Dolphins offense, and Miami's running game should also have its moments. But while the Fins offense is good, it doesn't quite have the talent to hang with Denver in a basketball-on-grass type of shootout. The Broncos are an AFC-best 15-4 after a bye week all-time, and they'll make it 16-4 by being the team to score last.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Broncos 35, Dolphins 31