(My Sportsbook) - The
Buffalo Bills have had an extra week to stew about their first loss of the season. Expected to have their starting quarterback in the lineup, the AFC East leaders try to get back into the win column this Sunday in a test against the rolling
San Diego Chargers at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills were off to their first 4-0 start since 1992 before getting thumped by Arizona, 41-17, two weekends ago. Buffalo was dealt adversity early on, as quarterback Trent Edwards was forced to leave the game on the third play from scrimmage due to a concussion. He is expected to play in this contest, however, after getting to recover during the team's bye week.
J.P. Losman accounted for three turnovers in relief, completing 15-of-21 pass attempts for 220 yards. He did connect with Lee Evans on an 87-yard touchdown pass.
Buffalo, which has won two straight at home, will try to improve to 5-1 for the first time since 1995, which also marks the last time the club won its first three home games in a season.
The Bills are 13-6 following bye weeks, the fifth-best mark in the NFL since the break was introduced in 1990. That includes a 2-0 mark after an off week under head coach Dick Jauron.
Buffalo currently leads the AFC East by one game over the Patriots and Jets. Following this Sunday's test, the Bills' next three games are against division opponents.
San Diego, meanwhile, plays the first of two straight road games. The Chargers will head to London, England following this contest to take on New Orleans at Wembley Stadium.
The Chargers would love to head overseas with continued momentum, as the club has won three of its last four to improve to 3-3 on the season, while also moving within a game of first-place Denver (4-2) in the AFC West.
After a disappointing seven-point loss to Miami two Sundays ago, the Chargers' offense got on track in a 30-10 win over New England this past weekend. Philip Rivers threw for over 300 yards with three touchdown passes in the victory.
The three touchdown passes by Rivers moved him into a tie with Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo for the NFL lead with 14. Rivers also leads the NFL with a 109.4 quarterback rating heading into this weekend's tilt.
San Diego will try to get back to .500 on the road this season, as it has lost two of three as the visitor so far this campaign.
SERIES HISTORY
San Diego has a 20-9-2 lead in its all-time regular season series with Buffalo, including a 24-21 road victory when the teams last met, in Week 13 of the 2006 season. The Bills are 0-2 against the Chargers since last defeating them, in 2002 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met three times in the postseason. Buffalo defeated San Diego for the 1964 and 1965 AFC Championships, and the Chargers were 20-14 winners over the Bills in a 1980 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Jauron is 2-1 in his career against the Chargers, with both wins dating back to his tenure with Chicago (1999-2003). San Diego's Norv Turner is 2-2 against the Bills all-time, with both wins coming during his tenure with the Raiders (2004-05) and both losses dating to his time with the Redskins (1994-2000). Turner is 1-0 head-to-head against Jauron.
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
For many years, it was running back LaDainian Tomlinson who dictated the San Diego offense. However, with the former NFL MVP battling a nagging toe injury, it's now Rivers who has taken the reigns of the Chargers offense. Rivers (1489 passing yards) has thrown just four interceptions to his 14 touchdown passes this year, and didn't miss a beat last week despite the absence of wideout Chris Chambers (ankle). Rivers hooked up with Malcom Floyd on a 49-yard touchdown pass, the longest of Floyd's career, while also completing five passes to Vincent Jackson (22 receptions, 2 TD), who totaled a career-high 134 yards along with a touchdown catch in the win. Tight end Antonio Gates (20 receptions, 4 TD) caught Rivers' other scoring pass. Behind Rivers, the Chargers have posted the eighth-best passing attack in the NFL (239.8 yards per game) while totaling a league-high 178 points. The air game could be even better this week if Chambers (11 receptions, 5 TD) can return. It does come as a surprise that the club is ranked just 21st in rushing offense (98.5 ypg) with Tomlinson (405 rushing yards, 4 TD) in the backfield. Though he continues to play, Tomlinson's toe has slowed him down for much of the season. He ran for 74 yards on 20 carries and added three catches for 44 yards in Sunday's win, and has also broken 100 yards on the ground just once this season. Tomlinson has also been held without a touchdown in each of the last two weeks.
Rivers will be up against the eighth-best pass defense (184.8 ypg), which of course belongs to the Buffalo Bills. However, the club arguably faced its first quality quarterback two weeks ago in Arizona's Kurt Warner, who tagged the Bills defense for 250 yards and two touchdown passes. Buffalo also failed to force a turnover against the Cardinals while playing without corner Terrence McGee (14 tackles, 2 INT) due to a knee injury. Safety Ko Simpson (21 tackles) also left the Arizona game due to a hamstring ailment. While Simpson should be able to play on Sunday, McGee seems less likely. Also questionable is defensive end Aaron Schobel (19 tackles, 1 sack), who missed practice time due to a foot ailment. Cornerback Jabari Greer (22 tackles, 1 INT) led the Bills with 12 tackles against Arizona, while linebacker Paul Posluszny (34 tackles) added to his team-leading tackle total with eight stops. Safety Donte Whitner (30 tackles, 1 sack) had nine tackles in the loss. Tomlinson could be in for a breakout game, as the Bills allowed 123 yards on the ground against a Cardinals squad that is one of the poorest rushing teams in the league. For the season, the Bills are 18th in rush defense (114.2 ypg).
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
The Bills are expected to have Edwards back for this game, a good thing considering how Losman performed in relief two weeks ago. Losman threw an interception and lost two fumbles in what was his first appearance of the season. Meanwhile, Edwards (948 passing yards, 4 TD, 2 INT) has a QB rating of 93.9 on the year and continues to mature into an NFL quarterback. With the second-year pro under center for the majority of the season, Buffalo has the 13th-ranked pass attack (214.6 ypg) in the league. Evans (16 receptions, 2 TD) has been a big part of that success. He has a catch of 30-plus yards in each of his last five games, and his 87-yard touchdown grab was the longest of his career. With wideout Roscoe Parrish (7 receptions, 1 TD) inactive for a second straight week due to a thumb injury, rookie James Hardy made his first career start against Arizona and hauled in three passes for 35 yards. Wide receiver Josh Reed (21 receptions) added four catches for 45 yards. If there is one area the Bills need to improve it is in running the ball. Buffalo is 23rd in the league in rushing offense (98.4 ypg), with top back Marshawn Lynch (319 rushing yards, 4 TD) being held to 55 yards on 13 carries two weeks ago. Lynch is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season.
The Chargers' defense hasn't looked the same minus injured linebacker Shawne Merriman, ranking 28th in total defense (365.7 ypg) and 31st against the pass (253.5 ypg). The unit has also yielded 139 points, 19th worst in the league. However, San Diego did hold New England just under 300 yards on offense last weekend, however, while limiting quarterback Matt Cassel to 203 yards passing. Safety Eric Weddle (50 tackles, 1 INT) and linebacker Stephen Cooper (18 tackles, 1 sack) each made a team-high 10 tackles, while Cooper had one of four San Diego sacks on the day. Defensive tackle Ryon Bingham (17 tackles, 1.5 sacks), linebacker Marques Harris (14 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and end Igor Olshansky (14 tackles, 2 sacks) also got the to the quarterback in the win, while corner Quentin Jammer (30 tackles) had an interception. The Chargers are now fifth in the NFL with 17 sacks this season. San Diego's pass defense might be a bit shorthanded this weekend, as both Weddle (shoulder) and linebacker Jyles Tucker (hamstring - 14 tackles, 3 sacks) are questionable. Tucker has missed San Diego's last two contests with his injury.
FANTASY FOCUS
Rivers has played himself into must-start status, while Tomlinson owners could finally reap some rewards this weekend. Buffalo has struggled against the run, while Tomlinson has gone over 100 yards rushing in two of his last three versus the Bills. He also has four touchdowns in that span. The possible return of Chambers will likely decrease the value of Floyd, but Jackson is still a good start. Gates, meanwhile, has three touchdowns in his last four versus the Bills, making him a good start.
Lynch owners have been keeping their heads above water with the back, due to his four touchdowns on the season. With Buffalo likely to go to the air against San Diego, Lynch might struggle again this week, but he is gunning for his fourth straight home game with a touchdown. Assuming he is healthy, Edwards should put up good numbers against a struggling San Diego pass defense, and Evans should also put up some big numbers. If Parrish can't go again, Reed and Hardy see their values increase. Neither defense is a solid start this weekend.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Both the Chargers and Bills enter this game in the thick of their respective division races, but also on different circumstances. Buffalo is well rested but is also coming off a lopsided loss, while San Diego is coming off a decisive win, although against a Tom Brady-less Pats club. The Chargers have historically had success versus the Bills in this series, but need to get to Edwards early to keep the quarterback out of rhythm coming off an injury. Though Rivers has been outstanding all year, this could finally be the week Tomlinson makes an impact, as long as he doesn't suffer a setback with his toe. Expect San Diego to head overseas with another solid win under its belt.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Chargers 24, Bills 17