Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - As an employee of the horse racing industry for the majority of my adult life, as well as a follower of this game for 30 years, I can honestly say that unless Casino Drive is the next Secretariat, Big Brown will become the 12th Triple Crown champion of all time.

The Rick Dutrow-trained superstar is the real deal. His Preakness win was a million times more impressive than the Kentucky Derby and that was the race the whole country fell in love with the son of Boundary.

It's true he was wide the entire 1 1/4-miles breaking from post 20 at Churchill Downs, but he had a clear path to run and the pace was incredibly soft. In fact, four of the top-seven horses at the three-quarter marker ended up finishing first, second, fourth and fifth.

The Preakness was an entirely different animal. This time Big Brown sat just a length off the two pacesetters, Gayego and Riley Tucker, and mowed them down without any ounce of effort. Kent Desormeaux did not even ask his horse to run around the turn, and in a matter of seconds, he and Big Brown had a three- length lead. It was as dominant performance as one could have in a Triple Crown event.

What punctuated this effort even more was how far back Gayego and Riley Tucker ended up. Not only did they finish last and next-to-last, there was a gap of seven lengths from the 10th-place finisher to those two!

Big Brown showed another gear this past Saturday, running his third quarter in 23 1/5, by far the fastest of his short career. To throw an extra light on that endeavor, consider his third quarters in his first four races were all run between 24 1/5 and 24 2/5 seconds.

Not only was his 23 1/5 a lifetime best, his middle half of 48 1/5 was also a career effort. Mull over this progression and it's obvious this undefeated superstar keeps on improving with every start. Beginning with his second race and ending with the middle leg of the Triple Crown, here are his middle halves: 50 1/5, 49 1/5, 48 4/5 in the Derby and 48 1/5 in Baltimore. And when taken into account how Desormeaux was looking behind and not even asking Big Brown to run, that 48 1/5 is even that much more impressive.

One can make the argument this year's Preakness field (other than Big Brown) was the worst in decades and that may very well be true. But one only has to watch a horse's stride to see greatness and he's definitely got it. Big Brown's acceleration is as impressive as the other three greats of the last 20 years: Cigar, Curlin and Ghostzapper.

His final time of 1:54 4/5 is very deceptive as Big Brown was pulling up the final eighth of a mile. If this had been his final career effort, there is no doubt that he would have challenged the stakes record of 1:53 2/5.

There's still one race to win and Desormeaux knows first hand how difficult a challenge it can be as his Real Quiet lost the Triple Crown by the slimmest of noses to Victory Gallop exactly 10 years ago.

THE BELMONT STAKES

There is only one real competitor in New York and that's Casino Drive. You can forget the rest. Denis of Cork is as solid as they come, but he couldn't come anywhere near eight lengths of Big Brown in the Derby with zero excuses. Tale of Ekati's fourth place finish was aided by the track bias and there is little to suggest a 12-length improvement in the Belmont.

Anak Nakal, Tomcito, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Behindatthebar, Mint Lane, Ready's Echo, Racecar Rhapsody...it doesn't matter. This will be a two-horse race, and possibly a one-horse event.

Casino Drive, a Kentucky-bred, won his maiden race in Japan by 11 1/2 lengths at the same odds Big Brown went off in the Preakness. He was brought to the United States with the sole purpose of winning the Belmont since his dam, Better Than Honour, has produced the last two winners in Rags to Riches and Jazil. There's no doubt he'll get the 1 1/2-miles of the Test of Champions, but it also has to be understood that Big Brown will not succumb to the 12 furlongs either.

In the Peter Pan, Casino Drive's second start, the son of Mineshaft displayed "the stride" as Kent Desormeaux has so eloquently stated many times aboard Big Brown. Breaking slowly out of the gate, Desormeaux inched his charge up on the inside and collared Mint Lane like he was standing still, crossing the wire first by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:47 4/5 for the nine furlongs.

Casino Drive ran his middle half that afternoon in 48 3/5, three ticks faster than Big Brown's middle four furlongs in the same 1 1/8 distance of the Florida Derby. However, the FL Derby was conducted around two turns, rather than the one turn Peter Pan, and Big Brown broke from the impossible post 12 that day and had to use his speed much earlier to get positioning around that first bend.

No one really knows how good Casino Drive can be and he's obviously eligible to improve off his second career start. What if HE is the second coming of Secretariat instead of Big Brown? If that's the case, then the public will once again be denied a Triple Crown champion. However, if both are eligible to become superstars of the turf, then we're all in for one heck of a race. If Big Brown does indeed prevail, then no one can say he didn't deserve to win the Triple Crown.

The only person that can compare the two horses is Desormeaux, and he has emphatically professed it will be a "cold exacta" in the Belmont - Big Brown over Casino Drive. Then again, would anyone expect him to say the two-for-two star is better than the Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner? Don't think so.

There's also another interesting angle to consider and that's the two horses they defeated in their last race. Icabad Crane and Mint Lane finished one-two in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico on April 19, with the "Crane" beating the "Lane" by a head in a thrilling stretch duel. Casino Drive knocked off Mint Lane by almost six lengths after a slow start in the Peter Pan on May 10, while Big Brown beat Icabad Crane by 5 3/4 lengths in the Preakness. Still, it could have been a lot more if Desormeaux had pushed his mount through the stretch.

A TRIPLE CROWN - IS IT WHAT THE SPORT NEEDS?

With the recent rash of fatal injuries on the racetrack from Barbaro to Eight Belles, there's nothing horse racing needs more than a superstar to market the sport. Many have tried to ignite the dying flame over the last dozen years and failed. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all came to New York with only one race (the Belmont Stakes) in the way of glory and all six fell short.

One could make a good argument that none of them were worthy to even be mentioned in the same breath as Citation, Count Fleet or Secretariat. This year, though, might very well be different. Big Brown would have no problems crushing each and every one of the horses mentioned in the previous paragraph, and even in defeat, his legacy will still shine bright.

But what happens if Big Brown does win the Belmont? How many more races will he run to actually be a marketable entity so needed in a sport dying for a true champion?

Big Brown has already been syndicated for approximately $50 million, and his owners, IEAH Stables, have said that his racing career will end after his three-year-old season is complete. Part of me wants to believe he'll have a few more races in him. Call me cynical, but I doubt that will be the case. Reading between the lines, what's not to say the completion of his three-year- old season won't come immediately after the Belmont?

With the Breeders' Cup scheduled for Santa Anita and its synthetic track surface, it's doubtful Big Brown will be pointed for the richest race in North America. In addition, if he does indeed win the Triple Crown, he'll have everything to lose and nothing to gain by running in the Haskell or Travers. Wouldn't it be fantastic to see him face Harlem Rocker, or even a rematch with Colonel John or Casino Drive in one of those races? Something tells me it won't ever happen.

It's also unlikely that he will square off against Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, or a race of that nature, since that would mean he would need a prep or two prior to that event. The only possibility (and the likelihood of it happening is 0%) would be a match race with Curlin set for sometime this summer. Otherwise, no one will ever know just how good Big Brown is or could be.

Think of it this way, if Casino Drive never existed, he would most likely win the Belmont by at least 20 lengths, retire as the only Triple Crown winner in history to never lose a race, and leave behind a legacy full of question marks. Historians will always wonder how superior he really was since all he did was beat up on a crop of second-rate three-year-olds.

Is this really what the sport needs? The brightest star to come along in thirty years and in one split second.."poof...he's gone?

Maybe that's why I'll be rooting for Casino Drive to upset Big Brown. If that occurs, one of two things will happen. Big Brown's connections will come up with some injury excuse and he'll be retired, or (and hopefully this will be the more likely result), there will be pressure from both parties to meet again down the road, with a possible rubber match if Big Brown proves victorious in round two. How great would that be for the sport! Also, one can't help but hope for, and expect, a battle with Curlin if he does indeed race at least two more times.

It's wonderful trying to envision what the crystal ball has in store, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The race of the year is less than three weeks away, and how Big Brown reacts once Casino Drive looks him in the eye, might be one of the most defining moments in the history of the sport. I, for one, can't wait!