(My Sportsbook) - For the 11th consecutive season, the
Atlanta Braves are dancing in October. Having won the National League East by a whopping 19 games over the second-place Montreal Expos, the Braves garnered home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by posting their fourth 100-win season in six years.
Atlanta's first-round opponent this time around will be the Barry Bonds-led San Francisco Giants, who earned the NL wild card spot by going 25-8 in their final 33 games and finishing with a 95-66 record.
Bonds' struggles in the postseason are well documented and will be focused on in this five-game series. The All-Star leftfielder owns a paltry .196 batting average, one home run and six RBI in 27 playoff games. In his last postseason series, against the New York Mets in 2000, the all-time single-season home run champ was 3-for-17 (.176) with no round-trippers, one RBI and four strikeouts.
However, this is a different time for the only four-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award. Bonds is the most dangerous hitter in baseball and is coming off his first batting crown, having hit .370 to outdistance Colorado's Larry Walker by an impressive 32 points.
In addition, he finished second in the NL in homers, third in runs scored, seventh in RBI and set a total of three baseball records with 198 walks, 68 intentional free passes and an on-base percentage of .582.
With Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood looming in the first three games, Bonds doesn't figure on seeing many pitches to hit. In fact, the key to this series for the Giants will be the performance of those surrounding Bonds in the lineup.
"Those aren't rinky-dink pitchers you're going against," said Bonds. "We have to play at our best, because to me those guys over there are the best. That's the just the bottom line."
Kenny Lofton's ability to make things happen at the top of the lineup will be worth watching. A year ago, Lofton endured a miserable Division Series for the Cleveland Indians, batting just .105 (2-for-19) with two runs scored. In fact, aside from 1998, when he batted .375 for the Tribe, the veteran centerfielder has failed to hit better than .167 in a total of six Division Series.
For Bonds to have a chance to exorcise his postseason demons, he will have to come to bat with men on base. It's highly probable that the Braves will choose to pitch around the slugger at every opportunity, so Lofton, Rich Aurilia and Jeff Kent must step up, while Benito Santiago and Reggie Sanders have to make the Braves pay if they fail to give Bonds anything to hit.
"The playoffs are so much different than the regular season," Kent told the San Francisco Chronicle. "One play, one pitch, one hit makes a difference in the playoffs. Whoever gets that hit is not always going to be the best guy. We've played well as a team, which is so crucial in the playoffs."
Of course, getting on base against the trio of Glavine, who will start Game 1, Maddux and Millwood is easier said than done. After going 18-11 with a 2.96 earned run average, the 36-year-old Glavine was awarded the honor of opening the best-of-five series.
A year ago in the NLDS against the Houston Astros, the southpaw tossed eight scoreless innings to lead the Braves to a 1-0 victory in Game 2 and send his club back home with a commanding two-games-to-none lead. Glavine has started seven games in his career in the Division Series, going 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA.
"It's an honor," Glavine told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "It's the kind of thing that, if I didn't pitch Game 1, I wouldn't be ticked off. But to be pitching in Game 1, it certainly is an honor and something I'm proud of and looking forward to. And I'll try to get us off to a good start."
Following the two-time Cy Young Award winner will be Maddux, who did not earn a decision in his only NLDS start a year ago after surrendering three runs -- two earned -- on four hits over six innings in Game 1.
The veteran righthander entered the playoffs a year ago having dropped his final four decisions. This season, the four-time Cy Young Award winner enters the postseason with a 5-1 record and a 2.30 ERA in his last seven outings.
The biggest difference from this October to last is the righthander's overall health. In 2001, Maddux hyperextended his elbow and was clearly out of sync as the Braves opened the Division Series in Houston. This year, he is healthy and preparing to face a Giants team that he is 23-13 against in his career. In two starts versus San Francisco this season, Maddux is 1-1 with a minuscule 1.93 earned run average.
"I couldn't care less which [postseason] game I pitch," said the 36-year-old hurler. "As long as I'm around for the party when it's all over. I want to be around for the party."
For all of their accolades, Glavine and Maddux have both endured their share of ups and downs in October. The former is 12-13 with a 2.97 ERA lifetime in the postseason, while the latter is 10-13 with a 3.24 earned run average.
"It's unfortunate that a lot of attention has been drawn away from those two," said Bonds. "You have Alex Rodriguez and the things that I've done the last couple of years, and Curt Schilling has put it together the last few years. But what those two have accomplished over the last decade for the Braves is phenomenal, and I don't understand why people don't recognize it."
Perhaps one reason the Braves, and specifically Glavine and Maddux, do not get the respect Bonds feels they deserve is their one World Series crown over the last 10 years. Atlanta has played in five Fall Classics in that time, with its one title coming in 1995 against the Indians.
Still and all, five World Series appearances in 10 seasons in very impressive. The one constant for Bobby Cox's squad during its recent run of appearances in the postseason has been starting pitching. In the past, John Smoltz was in the rotation to support Glavine and Maddux. With the hard-throwing righthander now rotation to support Glavine and Maddux. With the hard-throwing righthander now acting as the team's closer, Kevin Millwood has surfaced as the third starter.
After going 35-15 in his first two full seasons in the majors, Millwood fell on hard times. In fact, he threw just one inning in the playoffs a season ago and was often mentioned in trade talks. However, the righthander has come back with a vengeance this year, tying Glavine for the team lead in victories and putting together an eight-game winning streak from July 31 to September 11. He'll take the ball in Game 3.
"It works out perfectly," explained Cox. "They're all healthy. We're all set."
The Braves finished the 2002 campaign with only three complete games due in large part to their exceptional bullpen. With Smoltz closing, Mike Remlinger taking care of business in the eighth and Chris Hammond handling the seventh, Cox's starters have not been forced to work deep into the games.
Smoltz turned in a tremendous season in his first full year as the stopper, saving 55 games in 59 chances, while Remlinger, following a stint on the DL, appears healthy and ready to go.
"I think today is the best I've felt since getting back," Remlinger stated on Sunday. "I felt like my old self today."
The hard-throwing lefthander finished the season with a 7-3 record and a 1.99 earned run average in 73 appearances, one away from his career high. Hammond, on the other hand, was the biggest story of the season in the bullpen, going 7-2 with a 0.95 ERA in 63 outings. Only two other pitchers in the last 102 years -- Ferdie Schupp of the Giants (0.90 ERA in 1916) and Oakland's Dennis Eckersley (0.61 in 1990) -- have compiled an earned run average under 1.00 while pitching at least 70 innings.
San Francisco, meanwhile, has a fine closer of its own in Robb Nen. Following a rough period in August, the hard-throwing Nen has reclaimed his form to once again show why he is considered one of the top stoppers in the game.
Getting to Nen may not be easy if the starters are unable to last more than six innings. Tim Worrell has done a fine job in the set-up role this year, but the remainder of the bullpen is shaky. Felix Rodriguez, once considered among the best set-up guys in baseball, struggled all year and finished with a 4.17 earned run average. This, after compiling a 9-1 record with a 1.68 ERA a year ago.
That said, Rodriguez pitched much better in the second half of the season, going 5-2 with a 2.70 earned run average. He and Worrell could play a major factor in this series if the Giants first three scheduled starters continue to pitch as well as they did down the stretch.
Russ Ortiz, who will oppose Glavine in the opener, won each of his final six trips to the mound, while Kirk Rueter, the Game 2 starter, was 4-1 in his last five decisions. Former Brave Jason Schmidt was also tough over the last 1 1/2 months, going 6-2 in eight starts.
Atlanta does not have the best offensive team, as it finished 10th in the NL in runs scored. By comparison, San Francisco was third in runs and tied for third in batting average. Aside from Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield, the Braves can be shut down. Andruw Jones still swings at a lot of bad pitches and Rafael Furcal's .323 on-base percentage is poor for a leadoff hitter.
The remainder of the crew -- Javy Lopez, Matt Franco, Julio Franco, Vinny Castilla and Marcus Giles is mediocre, although Lopez showed some signs of life in September with four homers -- almost 25 percent of his season total.
When all is said and done, I like the Braves in this series. I think they have the edge on the rubber, both among the starter and in the bullpen, and their experience in the postseason is an intangible.
Also, there is no way the Braves will let Bonds beat them. Given the off years by Lofton and Aurilia, combined with the lack of protection from Santiago and Sanders, and I see Bonds being a non-factor in this series.
Prediction: Braves in four.